September 19, 2022

2 Paths for Aussie Bears

Michael J. Donoghue
2 Paths for Aussie Bears

At 9:30 pm Eastern Time tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be publishing their latest round of monetary policy meeting minutes. While there is a chance that their intentions could come across as more hawkish than expected, they currently have little reason to be. Despite relatively low unemployment at 3.5%, steady GDP growth, and annual inflation having increased by a full percentage point to 6.1%, the Australian economy has not overheated in a manner comparable to that of other countries.

Because their inflation threat is not nearly as dire as that faced by the US, the UK, and the EU, the RBA’s 50 bp rate hikes understandably pale in comparison to the Fed and the European Central Bank’s 75 bp hikes, or the Bank of Canada’s willingness to utilize a full 100 bp hike. Because of this disparity in economic circumstances, there is a good chance that the RBA’s meeting minutes will favor AUD bears tonight as a fundamental catalyst. For those who are interested in watching this unfold or perhaps taking a position, here are 2 paths for Aussie bears, along with their respective EdgeFinder ratings and categories.

1) AUD/USD (Receives a -4, or ‘Sell’ Signal)

2 Paths for Aussie Bears
2 Paths for Aussie Bears

With big monetary policy decisions and economic projections coming on Wednesday from a hawkish Federal Reserve, there is a chance that significant bearish momentum could be coming. Institutional traders clearly have far more confidence in USD over AUD, as per COT data.

2) AUD/CHF (Receives a -4, or ‘Sell’ Signal)

2 Paths for Aussie Bears
2 Paths for Aussie Bears

The Swiss National Bank is expected to implement a 75 bp rate hike on Thursday, officially leaving negative interest rates behind. This marks a hawkish pivot that continues to set apart the Swiss Franc as a safe haven currency.

Bonus: AUD/CAD (Receives a -2, or ‘Neutral’ Signal)

2 Paths for Aussie Bears
2 Paths for Aussie Bears

Though perhaps less clear than with the two aforementioned pairs, the Bank of Canada’s approach to contending with inflation contrasts remarkably with the RBA’s, despite both CAD and AUD being commodity currencies. Also, Canada has a monthly round of CPI data due on Tuesday.

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