Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending April 9th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at AUDUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD & XAUUSD.
Price has been steadily increasing and forming an ascending channel, creating higher highs and higher lows. Looking at recent market moves, we can see price consolidating between 0.78 and 0.757 since the start of 2021. We can also see price has formed the head & shoulder pattern with the head at 0.80, the shoulders at 0.78 and the neckline at 0.757. The past week we have seen price consolidate at this neckline, which is also at the channel's bottom. I would suggest waiting for a clear break and close below this level before taking any short positions, most traders will likely be going long at the channel's bottom, but I expect banks to take out their trades, thus making a bearish move on this pair. Take a read through my Deep Dive on AUDUSD here.
I've been showing this setup for the past couple of weeks, and pointing out this bearish OB at 1.82 where I'm looking to go short towards the EQL at 1.78. Price is also forming a rising wedge pattern which is further confirmation of an expected bearish move. Unless we see price clearly break and close above this OB, I'm looking only to go short and continue the bearish trend. Take a read through my Deep Dive on GBPAUD here.
Looking at recent moves, price has successfully completed this ascending triangle pattern visible on the chart and is currently at a bearish OB where we may see price reverse and head towards the downside again. If, however, price does break and close outside this OB, we will likely see this new uptrend continue and break previous highs from the trend. However, now wouldn't be wrong to go short and look for targets at the new support in the ascending triangle pattern.
Price is still consolidating between these two major levels, which are 1675 and 1765, and we are still yet to see a significant break below or above these levels. Long-term, I am bullish on Gold, so once we see price close above 1765, we could be looking out for buying positions on retests or at breaker blocks. If we see price close below 1675, I will look out for further price action confirmations of a continued bearish move to get into positions for a downside movement.
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