Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending April 16th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCAD, AUDUSD, GBPAUD & XAUUSD.
As explained in my CAD Employment Report article here, the employment rate continued to fall from 8.2% and came out to be 7.5%, which means more people are employed in Canada, and therefore better for consumer spending and, in general, for the economy. As expected, this acted as the catalyst for pushing price below the LV at 1.26, where price is now just under the channel's top, and will most likely continue falling and continue the long-term downtrend.
The market has been consolidating for the past week once again and staying just above the EQL at 0.756 and the channel's bottom. Looking long-term I'm expecting price to continue the trend and break the previous high at 0.80 and push towards the channel's top. If however, price does break below the EQL, this will most likely be to stop out traders once there's enough liquidity for banks to do so, and then ofcourse, look out for price action confirmations if price will reverse or continue dropping.
I've been pointing out this setup for the past couple of weeks, and I shared that I went short on this pair on Monday. As anticipated, price did infact make a strong bearish move from the 90% OB, and we're now approaching the first possible resistance towards the initial TP at the EQL. This short-term channel may easily be broken; however, if price does infact respect it, we'll likely see a new trend form, and this OB will be deemed invalid.
Price is still between the two major levels, 1675 and 1765, and we are still yet to see a significant break of these levels. We can see price has formed a double bottom at 1675, if we see price continue to push further above the neckline at 1640, then we may see price fulfil this chart pattern and push at least towards the bearish OB at 1800. I am overall bullish on Gold and therefore expect this bearish OB to turn into a breaker block, essentially a reversal and once price breaks, an area to go long off.
9/17/2021 Stocks are down -0.58% this morning after coming down to test a significant level of support once again. While stocks fall, the dollar rises in the anticipation of sooner-than-expected tapering by the Fed along with a hike in interest rates starting in 2022. Our outlook Other than September being one of the worst months […]
9/16/2021 The Euro-Dollar pair is down over 0.5% today after several days in the red. Today's speech by EU president Lagarde mentioned how the economic recovery had come quicker than expected six months ago. This was praised by the prompt vaccine distribution so citizens could get back to work. Across the pond, the US just […]
9/14/2021 This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this. Our outlook […]
9/13/2021 Big money has been moving out of Australia's currency for nearly a month now which has been the biggest drop in long contracts in this amount of time year-to-date. Australia's dollar index (AXY) is up 0.06% at 73.61 on the day after rebounding from the lows around 71.19. Our outlook Australia's economy has surprised […]