Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending April 16th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCAD, AUDUSD, GBPAUD & XAUUSD.
As explained in my CAD Employment Report article here, the employment rate continued to fall from 8.2% and came out to be 7.5%, which means more people are employed in Canada, and therefore better for consumer spending and, in general, for the economy. As expected, this acted as the catalyst for pushing price below the LV at 1.26, where price is now just under the channel's top, and will most likely continue falling and continue the long-term downtrend.
The market has been consolidating for the past week once again and staying just above the EQL at 0.756 and the channel's bottom. Looking long-term I'm expecting price to continue the trend and break the previous high at 0.80 and push towards the channel's top. If however, price does break below the EQL, this will most likely be to stop out traders once there's enough liquidity for banks to do so, and then ofcourse, look out for price action confirmations if price will reverse or continue dropping.
I've been pointing out this setup for the past couple of weeks, and I shared that I went short on this pair on Monday. As anticipated, price did infact make a strong bearish move from the 90% OB, and we're now approaching the first possible resistance towards the initial TP at the EQL. This short-term channel may easily be broken; however, if price does infact respect it, we'll likely see a new trend form, and this OB will be deemed invalid.
Price is still between the two major levels, 1675 and 1765, and we are still yet to see a significant break of these levels. We can see price has formed a double bottom at 1675, if we see price continue to push further above the neckline at 1640, then we may see price fulfil this chart pattern and push at least towards the bearish OB at 1800. I am overall bullish on Gold and therefore expect this bearish OB to turn into a breaker block, essentially a reversal and once price breaks, an area to go long off.
Today's economic figures came out in US and Canada. GDP came in higher than expected in Canada while the price of goods purchased by consumers was lower than last month. Here are some pullback ideas for USD and CAD from GDP and PCE numbers. EdgeFinder Analysis NAS100 is a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder still. […]
This week has brought more inflation data with it regarding the USD's PCE and PMI numbers. Powell is also set to speak this Friday about monetary policy going forward. The RBNZ will also release their latest interest rate news tomorrow with expectations of an unchanged rate at 5.5%. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is a bullish bias […]
This week is a big PMI week for Europe, UK and US. Additional inflationary metrics will add to the overall sentiment of these countries' monetary policies going forward. Here are some setups for the coming week on these currencies. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPCAD is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder as we wait for CPI news […]
