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June 16, 2021

17/06 AUD Employment: What To Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Thursday the 17th of June, the AUD will be printing their monthly employment report so here's what to expect...

Quick Summary of Previous Report:

  • Employment fell by 30.6k vs 17.5k expected gain
  • Unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%
  • Full-time employment increased by 33.8k, part-time employment fell by 64.4k

The headline employment data fell way below expectations, showing a negative figure instead of the expected 17.5k increase. It was looking bad however, underlying components of the report actually revealed that the data wasn't all too bad.

Full-time hiring increased by 33.8k that month, which can only suggest that part-time employment losses could of been due to the expiry of the JobSeeker stimulus program.

Unemployment rate also showed an improvement dropping from 5.7% to 5.5% but this was likely due to the drop in labour force participation.

What's Expected Now:

  • Employment gains of 30.5k
  • Unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.5%

Analysts are expecting to see gains of 30.5k hiring which will continue to hold the unemployment rate steady at 5.5%. Just like last time, the underlying components will likely play a big role in this release, more than the headline figures. Here are some clues:

  • NAB's Business Confidence Index fell from 23 to 20, reflecting weaker optimism
  • ANZ's Job Ads rose by 7.9% after the previous 4.8% increase
  • AIG's Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.8 indicating industry expansion
  • AIG's Services PMI rose from 61.0 to 61.2, and employment staying above 50.0 for the month
  • AIG's Construction PMI fell to 58.3, but the index for employment set a new record high

Impact on AUD/USD:

By the looks of it, the leading indicators are pointing towards a much stronger hiring in May, possibly even higher than the expected 30.5k gain. If we see the employment data come out better than expected, expect great strength in the AUD. We may finally see a break of this consolidation and we could see price break resistance at 0.78.

However, if the results somehow come out worse, this will likely hit the AUD hard and cause huge weakness, especially since the RBA are keeping an eye on employment conditions. Back to back negative reports could drop AUDUSD towards 0.756.

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