A1 Trading Company

Ticker tape by TradingView

June 16, 2021

17/06 AUD Employment: What To Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Thursday the 17th of June, the AUD will be printing their monthly employment report so here's what to expect...

Quick Summary of Previous Report:

  • Employment fell by 30.6k vs 17.5k expected gain
  • Unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%
  • Full-time employment increased by 33.8k, part-time employment fell by 64.4k

The headline employment data fell way below expectations, showing a negative figure instead of the expected 17.5k increase. It was looking bad however, underlying components of the report actually revealed that the data wasn't all too bad.

Full-time hiring increased by 33.8k that month, which can only suggest that part-time employment losses could of been due to the expiry of the JobSeeker stimulus program.

Unemployment rate also showed an improvement dropping from 5.7% to 5.5% but this was likely due to the drop in labour force participation.

What's Expected Now:

  • Employment gains of 30.5k
  • Unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.5%

Analysts are expecting to see gains of 30.5k hiring which will continue to hold the unemployment rate steady at 5.5%. Just like last time, the underlying components will likely play a big role in this release, more than the headline figures. Here are some clues:

  • NAB's Business Confidence Index fell from 23 to 20, reflecting weaker optimism
  • ANZ's Job Ads rose by 7.9% after the previous 4.8% increase
  • AIG's Manufacturing PMI increased to 61.8 indicating industry expansion
  • AIG's Services PMI rose from 61.0 to 61.2, and employment staying above 50.0 for the month
  • AIG's Construction PMI fell to 58.3, but the index for employment set a new record high

Impact on AUD/USD:

By the looks of it, the leading indicators are pointing towards a much stronger hiring in May, possibly even higher than the expected 30.5k gain. If we see the employment data come out better than expected, expect great strength in the AUD. We may finally see a break of this consolidation and we could see price break resistance at 0.78.

However, if the results somehow come out worse, this will likely hit the AUD hard and cause huge weakness, especially since the RBA are keeping an eye on employment conditions. Back to back negative reports could drop AUDUSD towards 0.756.

A1 Edgefinder

#1 Market Scanner Tool
Take 10% off using code "READER"
GET ACCESS NOW
Want to See Our Trades?

Join The VIP Community!

Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
JOIN NOWJoin FREE Discord
Listen to More Episodes
Why the New FOMC Decision Matters

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s policy-making body, implemented yet another 75 basis point interest rate hike. While this move was perfectly in line with market forecasts, Chair Powell’s comments following the subsequent press conference, in which he discussed the FOMC’s new set of economic projections, were significant. He continued to […]

Read More
Shocking CAD Inflation News

Statistics Canada released a surprising new batch of inflation data this morning: month-over-month CPI failed to meet market forecasts, declining by 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.1%. Rather than being an outlier, the other measurements of CPI mostly followed suit, as both year-over-year Trimmed CPI and Median CPI likewise failed to meet expectations. Trimmed CPI’s […]

Read More
2 Paths for Aussie Bears

At 9:30 pm Eastern Time tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be publishing their latest round of monetary policy meeting minutes. While there is a chance that their intentions could come across as more hawkish than expected, they currently have little reason to be. Despite relatively low unemployment at 3.5%, steady GDP growth, […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
Home
Edgefinder
VIP
Menu
homesmartphonelaptopmenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram