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May 19, 2021

20/05 AUD Employment: What To Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Thursday the 20th of May, the AUD will be printing their monthly employment report so here's what to expect...

Quick Summary of Previous Report:

  • Canada added 70.7k jobs in March vs 35.2k consensus
  • Unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6%
  • Full-time employment sank by 20.8k
  • Part-time employment rose by 91.1k

The employment report for March came out much better than expected, as employment rose by more than double the consensus. However, underlying components revealed that this employment growth was spurred through part-time hiring rather than full-time.

What's Expected Now:

  • Employment gains of 20.3k
  • Unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.6%

Analysts are not expecting an extensive employment report for April, likely due to the end of the JobSeeker Subsidy Program, which could impact these numbers. Analysts are also predicting job losses of around 150k now that the government's wage stimulus has expired, and this might be enough to bring the unemployment rate back up to 7.0%!

If we see a notable dip in full-time employment, this is likely to impact the AUD hard, which could prevent the central bank from shifting to a more hawkish stance anytime soon.

Impact on AUD/USD:

This event could be what finally either makes or breaks this formation on the chart. If we see the report come out better than expected, we will finally see price break through this significant 0.78 level, which has been acting as resistance for months now. If we see the report come out worse, we could finally see price break out of this channel and start forming a new trend in this market.

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