Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending August 20th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPNZD, EURAUD & XAUUSD.
A bearish flag pattern has formed on E/U after a descending channel has formed following an impulsive selloff in mid-June. Price has recently hit the channel's bottom and is now more than halfway heading towards the channel's top. We have a bearish order block at 1.187, where we could likely see a reversal towards the bottom from this zone. Look out for price action confirmations once price does reach this zone, look out for rejections before going short.
Price has been consolidating around and within this bullish breaker block zone for months now, and no significant move has yet to be made. Price did form a medium-term ascending channel where it's currently at the bottom, and I'm now waiting on price action confirmations of a rejection and a move potentially to the upside. If price breaks this formation and goes lower, it's likely we could see a new trend form, or price may go to retest previous horizontal levels such as 1.92 or potentially collect orders from OB's lower.
Price has recently broken out of the short-term ascending channel and is potentially forming a new descending channel if price fails to go higher than 1.61, forming the new lower high. Price has been moving pretty slowly in this market, and no breakthroughs have happened. 1.585 is a pivotal level to watch how price reacts; a break lower suggests we could retest 1.568, whereas if price holds this level as support, price is likely to stay above, and long positions could be a good idea.
Gold made a huge move in the past week, dropping more than 5% and then retracing the entire move plus more by Friday. Price has closed off for the week just above the channel's top, and in-between two horizontal levels, I've had my eyes on 1765 and 1795. Look out how price reacts to this current level to decide whether to go long or short. If price stays above the channel's top, we could likely see price head higher towards and above 1795, whereas if price comes back inside the channel, it's likely we could see some consolidation in the zone at 1740.
Today's economic figures came out in US and Canada. GDP came in higher than expected in Canada while the price of goods purchased by consumers was lower than last month. Here are some pullback ideas for USD and CAD from GDP and PCE numbers. EdgeFinder Analysis NAS100 is a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder still. […]
This week has brought more inflation data with it regarding the USD's PCE and PMI numbers. Powell is also set to speak this Friday about monetary policy going forward. The RBNZ will also release their latest interest rate news tomorrow with expectations of an unchanged rate at 5.5%. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is a bullish bias […]
This week is a big PMI week for Europe, UK and US. Additional inflationary metrics will add to the overall sentiment of these countries' monetary policies going forward. Here are some setups for the coming week on these currencies. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPCAD is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder as we wait for CPI news […]
