Another wedge forming on the pair as it hovers in consolidation zone. A breakout could be bullish for Aussie, but GDP q/q report this Tuesday is expected to be much worse than last quarter at -6%. AUD does have an advantage over the New Zealand dollar which would stem from their gold industry. Gold is looking more valuable to investors now that the USD is going to keep depreciating over time. AUD's report on GDP today will be big in picking a direction, and if the report is as-expected or worse, we can count on this pair to continue to fall.
USDJPY sentiment is still bearish mostly from weakening sentiment on the USD. Analysts seem to be favoring the yen as the Bank of Japan has record high debt issuance and while the US now has limitations on their businesses to work with Chinese companies. Here on the 4H chart the pair is struggling to break that 200 period SMA all while stuck in a wedge. We see a potential short set up on that moving average as well as the top of the wedge and a close/break below the rising trend line.
The pair crossed below long term support from back in May 2015. Now price is coming back up to the new resistance. Despite this, investors are bullish on the pair. It looks like price is trying to break that hard trend line where next key resistance lies around .93750s. A breakout would be good news for the pair, so we're remaining neutral until movement is decided.
Gold seems to be up against resistance on a key Fibonacci level around 2000. Although technicals are important, we don't believe them to be too notable for this pair since the Fed's recent actions regarding inflation and extreme stimulus measures. One analysts sees price over 2000 by the end of the year with the possibility of it outperforming the market once again. 2000 is the major level it needs to break which would be the biggest bull sign on the metal.
Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.
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