After a slew of unimpressive economic news, the US faces another earnings week that will test the market strength of USD, stocks and commodities. Here are the some of the best setups we see on dollar/commodity longs.
UJ looks increasingly bullish as price keeps pushing higher despite a dollar decline. The EdgeFinder is going back and forth between a +5 and +6 strong buy score. The retail crowd is mostly mixed sentiment while COT is not making any big moves on either currency.
The most likely factor that could shift the score to a strong buy again would be if the crowd goes short this pair. Seasonality shows this pair historically has the best month in the first half of the year this month. The two fundamental metrics that USD struggles with over the Yen is inflation and unemployment.
SPX500 now lower on the day as bank earnings continue to roll out. We're seeing some selling pressure on the 1D timeframe during an uptrend since March. The way price has moved on this timeframe suggests that the index wants to complete its move higher towards the $4300 level. However, it's hard to tell in the short term where earnings will take price.
Smart money is still over 70% short SPX and retail agrees this time. There aren't many setups we see on this index because the short term is extremely uncertain. Heavy bearish news and extreme optimism on both sides makes for a difficult market to trade in.
USOil is currently reading neutral on the EdgeFinder. This brings our attention because it was recently a strong sell at -7 in late March. Now its at +2 which suggests that the EF is flipping sentiment on the commodity. Who knows how long we'll see a neutral or even a buy rating, but with production cuts in the last OPEC meeting, we could see more demand in this market.
One metric that shows lots of promise for the asset is that smart money continues to grow interest. Oil is now a little over 80% long by institutions. Retail is mixed. It seems rare to find an asset on the EdgeFinder that's also a neutral rating. That's what makes this asset look increasingly bullish.
One thing keeping oil from reaching a +3 buy is that fact that retail is still mixed on this asset. If price moves higher, we could likely see bearish sentiment from the crowd. Meanwhile, most indices are shorted with the exception of NAS100. Gold is also considered mixed with a slight bearish lean.
Smart Money Spotlight
Here is an overview of all the assets listed on the EdgeFinder. Smart money interest is still heavily short JPY, CAD, CHF, 10 year bonds, and SPX. On the other side of the coin, institutions really like JP225, EUR, gold, and oil. Last Friday's report showed an increase in longs on oil. So, oil is not only the most bullish by COT, but is also increasing in interest. Meanwhile, the price of oil has done nothing but decline 3% in the last 4 days of trading. USOil could be looking at a deep discount.
AI- Generated Trading Setups
AI-generated bullish/bearish bias setups on forex currencies, gold, & indices.
Today's economic figures came out in US and Canada. GDP came in higher than expected in Canada while the price of goods purchased by consumers was lower than last month. Here are some pullback ideas for USD and CAD from GDP and PCE numbers. EdgeFinder Analysis NAS100 is a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder still. […]
This week has brought more inflation data with it regarding the USD's PCE and PMI numbers. Powell is also set to speak this Friday about monetary policy going forward. The RBNZ will also release their latest interest rate news tomorrow with expectations of an unchanged rate at 5.5%. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is a bullish bias […]
This week is a big PMI week for Europe, UK and US. Additional inflationary metrics will add to the overall sentiment of these countries' monetary policies going forward. Here are some setups for the coming week on these currencies. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPCAD is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder as we wait for CPI news […]
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.