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April 7, 2021

09/04 CAD Employment: What to Expect

Bart Kurek

Look out traders! On Friday the 9th of April, Canada will be printing their jobs report and here's what to expect...

Quick Summary of February Report:

  • Canada added 259.2k jobs in February vs 98.5k consensus
  • Unemployment rate fell from 9.4% to 8.2% vs 9.2% forecast

The February report turned out much better than expected, as the economy added 259.2k jobs versus the estimated 98.5k which was enough to push the unemployment rate down to 8.2%, which was the lowest since the Covid-19 crash in March 2020. As lockdown is beginning to ease around the world, focusing on Canada specifically, both part-time and full-time jobs are very quickly picking up.

What's Expected Now:

  • Employment gains of 90k
  • Unemployment rate to continue falling from 8.2% to 8.0%

Although the employment gains are expected to be a lot less than the previous month, this should still be enough to continue pushing the unemployment rate lower. If the "Actual" figure comes out to be greater than "Forecast", this is good for the currency.

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labour-market conditions.

Impact on USD/CAD:

If you're trying to decide how this will impact the USDCAD, take a read through the deep dive article here to read my long-term views on the currency, and specifically this market.

As there will be no other major catalysts on Friday, this release will likely spark some strong intraday movement in CAD pairs.

Specifically, I am looking to go short on USDCAD and continue the long-term bearish momentum. If the "Actual" figure is greater than 90k we could see some serious strength in the CAD that could likely push price back down away from this LV at 1.26.

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