Today and tomorrow are primed to be significant for those trading the Japanese Yen, as well as Japanese bonds. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is tentatively scheduled to release a Monetary Policy Statement at some point today along with any interest rate adjustments, with a press conference to follow tomorrow. Buying pressure for JPY has been gaining steam over the past few months as traders bet on the BoJ finally pivoting away from extreme dovishness as annual inflation in Japan hits a historic 3.7%. However, while the BoJ seems likely to change course at some point, there have been few explicit signals to suggest that a newfound hawkishness could be just around the corner; for context, Japan’s economy has wrestled with a chronic deflation problem for decades. While the BoJ’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has a planned retirement in April of 2023, what sort of tone his successor will set still remains a little way off. As retail traders contemplate how to trade JPY this week, it may be wise to focus more on fundamentals over speculation.
Three Pairs to Watch
The EdgeFinder is currently quite bearish on JPY ahead of the upcoming monetary policy news. For those interested in looking for potential trade setups for selling the Yen, the following pairs are rated favorably for JPY bears. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.
1) CHF/JPY - Receives a ‘7’ Rating, or a ‘Strong Buy’ Signal
2) EUR/JPY - Receives a ‘6’ Rating, or a ‘Strong Buy’ Signal
3) NZD/JPY - Receives a ‘5’ Rating, or a ‘Buy’ Signal
As the Swiss National Bank (SNB) gears up for a likely new interest rate hike on Thursday, December 15th, financial markets will be watching. Chairman Thomas Jordan of the SNB has made these hawkish intentions clear repeatedly; this contractionary agenda would be the continuation of Switzerland’s recent departure from ultraloose monetary policy. Negative interest rates had been a years-long precedent for the central bank prior to the SNB’s shocking pivot towards tightening over the course of 2022, as high inflation grips the global economy. These rate hikes contribute to a greater valuation for the Swiss Franc, which already displays impressive fundamentals thanks to the stability of Switzerland’s economy. This reflects in the EdgeFinder’s positive analysis of the currency, which has aided in generating several new signals for CHF pairs; they are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts. As potential trade setups emerge over the coming week, it is worth asking: is it time to buy CHF?
1) CHF/JPY - Earns a ‘5’ Rating, or a ‘Buy’ Signal
2) AUD/CHF - Earns a ‘-4’ Rating, or a ‘Sell’ Signal
3) CAD/CHF - Earns a ‘-4’ Rating, or a ‘Sell’ Signal
As many of you already know, the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner software, can be incredibly helpful for discerning which securities are especially worth watching for potential trade setups. Whether you are planning on buying or selling a currency pair, commodity, bond, or more, EdgeFinder analysis is so robust that its ratings and biases can be a go-to supplement for traders. However, one feature of the EdgeFinder’s that is little mentioned, yet quite meaningful, is its generation of ‘0’ ratings and ‘Neutral’ biases. Most days, there are a small handful of pairs or securities that earn these reviews; rather than being irrelevant, these ratings can be quite convenient to keep in mind, as they can alert traders to risks in terms of lack of signals. With that in mind, here are 4 pairs to be wary of next week, as they currently earn such ‘0’ ratings, indicating that an extra measure of caution could be helpful.
1) GBP/CAD - Earns a ‘0’ Rating, or a ‘Neutral’ Signal
2) USD/CHF - Earns a ‘0’ Rating, or a ‘Neutral’ Signal
3) XAU/USD (Gold) - Earns a ‘0’ Rating, or a ‘Neutral’ Signal
4) GBP/USD - Earns a ‘0’ Rating, or a ‘Neutral’ Signal
This morning at 2 am Eastern Time, the Office for National Statistics reported the latest monthly round of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI increases within the United Kingdom’s economy. Annual CPI, which had been forecasted to hit 10.7%, instead jumped by an astonishing 11.1%, making for another multidecade high; annual Core CPI also surpassed expectations, reaching 6.5% instead of the anticipated 6.4%. Because higher-than-expected inflation numbers tend to prompt central banks to raise interest rates to cool their respective economy in response, the Pound rose on the news accordingly, with traders welcoming the bullish indicator. However, it seems quite plausible that the UK CPI data mislead markets today, because these high figures are not due to traditional economic overheating.
A more fitting target for the blame is the slew of supply side issues stemming from the wartime energy crisis and clunky access to import commodities, driving up food and gas prices. This is why Core CPI in the UK has thus far only increased by a little over half that of CPI, and why the UK’s GDP is contracting, not expanding. These structural issues cannot be resolved merely by a central bank restricting demand vis-à-vis interest rate hikes; rather, either some combination of domestic production and trade must be reconfigured, or many of these tragic conditions must simply be endured, even in the form of stagflation. Whatever comes to pass, this particular kind of high inflation is ominous, and may perhaps be more appropriately filed as bearish for GBP upon a closer look.
Two Potential Pairs to Sell
For those who are looking for opportunities to short the Pound, the following two pairs are viewed favorably for GBP bears by the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s handy market scanner. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts. GBP/NZD is perhaps especially worth watching, as the Kiwi Dollar displays impressive fundamentals.
1) GBP/NZD (Earns a Score of -8, or a ‘Strong Sell’ Signal)
2) GBP/CHF (Earns a Score of -3, or a ‘Sell’ Signal)
As we wait for major economic news releases this week (such as monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia tonight at 7:30 pm ET, United States Producer Price Index numbers tomorrow at 8:30 am ET, and Consumer Price Index updates from the UK on Wednesday at 2 am ET), it can be helpful to consider what pairs the Edgefinder already signals to be particularly worth watching. With this in mind, here are the EdgeFinder’s current 3 strongest pairs to buy this week, listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts. Additional comments on fundamentals and technical analysis will also be provided.
1) CHF/JPY (Receives a 5, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
2) USD/CAD (Receives a 5, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
3) NZD/CAD (Receives a 4, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI; a proxy for inflation) numbers. Included in this report was month-over-month CPI, year-over-year CPI, and month-over-month Core CPI, which cuts out volatile food and energy prices. Rather than exceeding market expectations as USD bulls have become so accustomed to, last month’s inflation rather decelerated, and by large margins too. Month-over-month CPI was a meager 0.4%, a far cry from the 0.6% forecast, and month-over-month Core CPI only increased by 0.3% instead of 0.5%. The shocking US inflation data this morning is bearish for USD at face value, painting a picture of a US economy that is beginning to cool, implying less urgent need for Fed aggression while providing encouragement for stock markets.
Three Pairs to Trade
Despite this news, a bullish USD bias can still be meaningfully tied to fundamentals, because Fed Chair Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve will not reduce rate hike goals based on one or two occurrences of lower-than-forecast inflation data. Thus, the bearish USD price action that arises from this news grants USD bulls potential opportunities for trade setups. With this in mind, here is a selection of pairs that the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner, still views favorably for USD bulls; they are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.
1) USD/CAD (Earns a 6, or ‘Strong Buy’ Signal)
2) USD/CHF (Earns a 3, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
3) EUR/USD (Earns a -3, or ‘Sell’ Signal)
For those trading stocks or the US Dollar this week, we would like to encourage caution: US midterm elections tonight may become fundamental catalysts, creating volatility across markets. With hundreds of millions of potential voters going to the polls across the United States today to decide who they want to represent them in government, these decisions will ostensibly have significant impacts on financial market activity, especially with federal elections. With Democrats projected to lose their current majority in the House of Representatives and a slew of close races to determine a new Senate majority locked in a dead heat, the policy-making landscape in the US could be quite different in January 2023, when those newly elected take office.
What Impacts Might This Have?
If Democrats manage to beat expectations and keep both chambers of Congress, even adding to their current majorities, this will likely pave the way for more federal spending packages over the next two years, potentially adding to both GDP growth and inflation. On the other hand, if Republicans take one or both chambers, this could effectively nullify President Biden’s future agenda by preventing new spending packages from passing over the next two years, reducing potential GDP growth and inflation.
Thus, my personal guess is that a) a sweeping Democrat victory would create shorter-term stock rallies and longer-term USD bullishness (due to increased stimulus), and b) one or more chambers being won by Republicans would cause longer-term stock support and slight bearishness/neutrality for USD (due to increased austerity). However, this is only speculation; we will have to wait and see how the markets respond. This reaction may take some time to culminate, as some states take longer than others to tally votes and report election victories, meaning some results may not be known for days.
Two Potential Pairs to Watch
If you are bullish on USD and looking for potential trade setups as midterm results emerge, the following two pairs are currently rated favorably by the A1 EdgeFinder for those interested in going long on the Greenback. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.
1) USD/JPY (Earns a 5, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
2) USD/CHF (Earns a 3, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC; the Federal Reserve’s policy making body) met market expectations by implementing another 75 basis point interest rate hike. With this now being the fourth time in a row such a large hike has occurred, this was not the central story of the day; rather, it was Fed Chair Powell’s shocking press conference afterwards. While answering reporters’ questions, he repeatedly explained that, while the size of the rate hikes could grow slimmer soon, the Federal Funds Rate must now increase to a level previously thought unnecessary. He also mentioned preferring to err on the side of over-tightening monetary policy, since it would be easier for the Fed to lift the US economy out of contraction than to stamp out overheating. With the Federal Funds Rate now at 4% and the Fed doubling down on hawkishness, USD seems primed to continue its historic climb once again as US equities suffer.
Three Potential Pairs to Buy
According to the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner which offers traders an array of supplemental analysis, the following three pairs are viewed quite favorably for USD bulls. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals biases, and corresponding charts. Tomorrow morning’s big US labor news, which will be discussed in a subsequent article today, will likely provide yet another fundamental catalyst that will influence price action for these pairs.
1) USD/CAD (Earns a 7, or ‘Strong Buy’ Rating)
2) USD/CHF (Earns a 6, or ‘Strong Buy’ Rating)
3) USD/JPY (Earns a 5, or ‘Buy’ Rating)
This morning, at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released an unfortunate batch of news for the US economy. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, otherwise known as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which surveys over 200 Philadelphia manufacturers on a monthly basis, indicated worsening business conditions this month. While a score of -5 was anticipated, and would have already been a pessimistic indication, the real number was a bleaker -8.7. Considering that American manufacturing is a crucial component of US exports, these disappointing conditions ostensibly highlight the toll that a strong US Dollar is taking on trade, which carries negative implications for US GDP growth, or the lack thereof. With USD falling on the Philly Fed News today, monetary tightening-induced recession fears continue to haunt financial markets.
End of the Road for USD?
While the USD bullish run cannot last forever, a reversal currently seems unlikely anytime soon. High core inflation and hot labor markets are still incentivizing the Federal Reserve to continue their aggressive rate hike strategy, which they show little sign of stopping, regardless of UN criticism. Those bullish on USD may want to watch bearish movements like these for potential trade setups, which could yield potential discounted opportunities for going long on the Greenback.
Three Potential Pairs to Trade
According to the A1 EdgeFinder’s market analysis, the following pairs rank favorably for those interested in going long on USD. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.
1) USD/CHF (Earns a Score of 4, or a ‘Buy’ Signal)
2) EUR/USD (Earns a Score of -5, or a ‘Sell’ Signal)
3) AUD/USD (Earns a Score of -4, or ‘Sell’ Signal)
There is a near endless cycle of global economic news worth focusing on. Recent noteworthy stories include the complete abandonment of UK PM Truss’ ill-timed signature tax cuts, as well as the US Dollar Index briefly falling during better-than-expected US corporate earnings. Just this morning, both UK and Canadian CPI data came in hotter than what was forecast. However, one currency continues to stand out as particularly worth watching, despite few policy updates or other fundamental catalysts this week: the Japanese Yen. With Japan’s economy in a comfortable state of low unemployment and higher consumer spending, yet little dangerous overheating, the Bank of Japan continues its ultraloose monetary policy, voluntarily sacrificing JPY’s forex value for economic prosperity. With the Yen thus continuing its fall to multidecade lows, this bearish momentum shows no signs of stopping, potentially making JPY the best currency to short.
Best Pairs to Buy
According to the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner that assists traders by consolidating and presenting key market analysis, the following three pairs are rated favorably for those shorting JPY. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.
Regarding technical analysis, each pair has a clear, strong uptrend. As conveyed in the EdgeFinder charts, despite Japan's fantastic economic performance, institutional bearishness (see 'COT data' in the Sentiment category) on the Yen, trend reading, and interest rate divergence are recurring bullish themes across pairs.
1) USD/JPY (Receives a 4, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
2) CHF/JPY (Receives a 4, or ‘Buy’ Signal)
3) NZD/JPY (Receives a 3, or ‘Buy’ Signal)