Today (Friday, October 14th) has been full of historic and turbulent decisions within the United Kingdom. Chief among them include the official end of the Bank of England’s (BoE) emergency bond-buying intervention scheme, as well as Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss’ decision to fire Kwasi Kwarteng from his role as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He had only served in the position less than six weeks; his time in office is the second shortest ever for a Chancellor. With the UK’s economy now taken off of monetary policy life support, and a former foreign minister named Jeremy Hunt now appointed the new Chancellor, both the BoE and the PM are hoping for a fresh start. However, GBP bearishness only looks ever more compelling; let’s explore five crucial points of consideration as we evaluate the case against the Pound.
1) No More BoE Intervention
Towards the end of September, following the now-former Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’ announcement that included debt-financed plans for energy bill subsidies and stimulus via tax cuts, GBP plummeted in value. The selloff saw the Pound reach never-before-seen lows against the US Dollar, nearing parity; to contain the selloff and prevent an implosion of the UK’s financial system, the BoE jumped into action. Buying bonds in order to inject new liquidity and project some semblance of economic optimism for wary financial institutions, the monetary rescue mission has worked, at least to an extent. However, this program ends today; now that the BoE is withdrawing its palliative aid, there is ostensibly nothing preventing another GBP selloff.
2) PM Truss’ Untimely Vision
While PM Truss may be nominally taking steps in a better direction, e.g., walking back certain tax cut provisions and appointing a new Chancellor, these gestures may be more tokenistic than substantive. This is because her whole underlying vision for the UK’s economy is incongruent with current circumstances: attempting to use fiscal stimulus to spur growth in the midst of 40-year inflation highs is almost nonsensical, contrasting both Keynesian and Austrian theories on economics. Even if she affirms a couple budgetary changes, there are few signs that she is relenting from expansionary policy in general, the key catalyst that prompted the GBP selloff.
3) UK Energy Insecurity
A central component of GBP’s bearish fundamentals is the energy crisis the UK is facing, similar to that of mainland European countries. The crux of this problem is that Britain’s shockingly high inflation rate, currently 9.9% year-over-year, is not just due to economic overheating post-stimulus, but is also caused by restricted energy supply and high global prices in the aftermath of sanctions with Russia. This supply-side problem cannot be fixed with hawkish monetary policy, forcing the UK’s government to choose between partially subsidizing energy bills with money printing, or potentially letting energy costs increase manifold, devastating consumers. Neither of these solutions can solve the underlying issue, and both contribute to Pound weakness.
4) Post-Brexit Instability
Another risky factor underpinning the fragility embedded within the UK’s financial system is uncertainty post-Brexit. With trade policy still in a state of flux upon leaving the EU, the UK’s economy was already in a delicate position in the eyes of potential investors. Now the UK is facing the same crises without the extra layer of financial security that comes with being an EU member, all while it is still finding its new footing on the world stage. Market sentiment may continue to assess that British equities, bonds, and the Pound are thus too risky to go long on, opting to further short GBP and other securities instead.
5) Empirical Forex Data
On top of these bearish fundamentals, institutional sentiment and market activity currently corroborate a bleak outlook for the Pound. According to the most recent Commitments of Traders (COT) data, 68.53% of institutional traders are selling GBP against other currencies, an increase of 4.55% over the previous week. Because financial institutions contribute significantly to price action and market volatility in forex, this institutional GBP bearishness has reflected in the markets accordingly. As depicted in the GBP/USD chart above, we have yet to see a breakout to the upside above trendline resistance on the 1-day timeframe (though a higher low has been found at the 1.10 level, before the bond-buying scheme finished).
A Grim Conclusion
From the standpoint of both fundamentals and sentiment analysis (as well as some technical analysis), a return to GBP bearish momentum seems quite plausible. While the fate of GBP minor pairs appears to be less clear, A1 Trading’s EdgeFinder tool, a market scanner that offers helpful supplemental analysis, rates GBP/USD at a -6, earning a ‘strong sell’ signal.
Key Takeaways
• Today has been historically significant for the UK’s fragile economy: the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying program wraps up, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng has been fired. The case for GBP bearishness is quite a compelling one.
• First, the Bank of England’s quick monetary intervention to save GBP from collapsing ends today. With their policy efforts having briefly saved the Pound from dire sentiment and fundamentals, the primary measure of security for GBP’s value in forex is now gone.
• Second, while UK Prime Minister Truss has made some budgetary concessions, such as walking back the extent of her tax cuts, her underlying policy agenda is barely changed. Considering her vision was the catalyst for the GBP selloff, this is bad news.
• Third, the UK faces an energy crisis similar to that of mainland Europe, forcing the government to choose between debt-financed subsidies or devasting, near-unaffordable energy bills. Neither option is good for GBP, nor can be fixed by curbing demand via rate hikes.
• Fourth, the problems afflicting the UK’s precarious financial system are exacerbated by post-Brexit difficulties. Without the extra layer of economic protection brought by the EU, financial markets may judge GBP and UK stocks and bonds to be too risky to buy.
• Fifth, besides fundamentals, institutional sentiment and price action appear to confirm this bearish narrative for GBP. Over 68% of institutional traders are now shorting GBP against other currencies, and GBP/USD has yet to break out above key resistance.
• In conclusion, at best the Pound does not appear to be worth buying; at worst, market conditions look incredibly bearish for the currency, and for the UK’s economy in general. Currently, GBP/USD receives a ‘strong sell’ signal from the A1 EdgeFinder as well.
In trading, money is the only tool that we use to make money. If prices go high after buying one, we become really happy. But the scenario gets completely opposite when we lose 5 in a row. We develop the fear that the trading account will be blown up soon.
Trading is a very practical thing yet it brings tremendous excitement and joy for us. But it should not capture one’s emotion and logical mindset. Emotions should not make you trade. You should do it with logic and expertise. Still, there is always the fear of missing out. It’s high time to get ways for ‘how to overcome your trading fear’.
This fear for a longer span of time not only leaves a negative effect on your trading decisions but also affects your overall mental health. There are some ways that expert traders follow to overcome fear and emotion. Professionals who can control their fear and emotion are prone to succeed most times. How have they achieved this mental robustness? Let’s explore-
You must agree that successful trading is all about 90% mindset and 10% skills. After placing an order, if you find that you are breathing quickly or feeling negative, it’s sure that you are expecting something negative. When your mind is having a negative expectation, it can block your logical thinking ability. Anxiousness can let you make many common mistakes.
Does negative thinking really matter? After researching well and taking suggestions from others yet you are anxious, there is a high possibility that you will get a negative outcome. In order to win, at the first move, you have to eliminate this negative attitude and turn that into a winning expectation. You should have the trust that you can trade successfully.
Having negative outcomes in a row often breaks the confidence level of traders. In such a situation, keeping the mind cool is the first virtue that you have to achieve. You should remember your success and its way. You will get a way to win along with getting some vigor and confidence back.
Suppose, the situation is not going well for you. What’s you do in such an anxious situation? In such a situation, making perfect trading decisions is hard as you cannot logically analyze everything. This time can be spent on learning new things about trading. A new strategy of trading is always fun and can make you profitable in the future.
There is no fixed time to learn new things in trading. Whenever you get time or make time, you can learn interesting trading things such as Iron condors, Credit Spreads operate, RSI, MACD indicators, and so on.
There are various online forex day trading courses that you can join to master the genre. You will be more confident when you will gain new skills and know more about the ups and downs of trading.
It’s important to research the market very well in order to understand the patterns of trades. If you don’t know what to do next, it can emotionally burden you. Even if you have placed an order yet you have some doubts. Take a step back and research the topics you want to know. Regular practice and study are important when it comes to mastering the art and science of trading. If you cannot manage the best guide for yourself, join a leading online trading academy to get expert help and training facilities.
You can prepare a list of things that you find hard to understand and heard the first time. After that, you need to pick topics that you need to learn first based on your trading requirements. The trading list should be updated rather than increased on a regular basis and in a systematic way. Trading is a vast field and mastering that within a year is not possible. You have to go slow and steady for long or for your entire trading career. Learning has really no end in the trading field.
While learning new topics on a regular basis, you will get new strategies on your own. You will want to apply your newly developed strategies. But there will be some doubts for sure. These doubts can lead you towards trading fears and you can get controlled by your emotions.
So, whenever you craft a new strategy and want to deploy that or wish to use a new indicator, you can enable paper trade before deploying it in real. Yes, paper trading is not perfect by many means but here you will definitely get a controlled environment. The controlled environment will help you in learning how to enable comfortable envelope-pushing with trades without risking your capital.
When it comes to how to overcome your trading fear after losing in a row, experts suggest analyzing new charts to get insights. It’s common for many traders to get emotionally attached to the stock, ETF, or any product they trade on. They spend many hours nurturing them and keeping hope in them. Keeping hope in everything can result in something counterproductive. So, it’s always better to search 5 new charts of companies where you do not that that much attachment.
After finalizing the list of charts, you should analyze each one deeply and prepare reasons to buy or sell them. In this way, you will be able to develop a neutral mindset. Such a practice will help you evaluate a position without having any emotional attachment. When there is a less emotional attachment, there is less trade fear and you can think more clearly.
These are 5 steps that successful traders always follow to overcome trading fear. So, if you too are concerned about how to overcome your trading fear easily, following these steps will be a great help for you.
Following these steps is easy and does not require any additional effort. These 5 steps are actually a system process that not only trains your mind but also helps you in having new skills. Gaining new skills is challenging yet you have to do it as the trading market is really complex. Effective and consistent effort on a regular basis can turn you into a successful trader. These steps are there to make you consistent and wise.
There are plenty of things to consider when your looking to choose a forex broker and thousands of options for you to choose from. How do you know which broker is the best fit for you? How can you be sure your broker is legitimate? Here are a list of the top 5 most important things to look for in a broker!
A regulated broker is a broker which is federally monitored and is continually being watched by local governments. Regulation ensures that what you are going to be doing with your money is relatively secure. Without regulation, a broker has free range on how they choose to handle your money. Because of this, you could face more issues trying to deposit or withdrawal money.
Forex brokers make their money through through fixed rate commissions, and/or taking a small bid/ask spread on your trade. Spreads and commissions are similar but spreads can be a bit more dynamic and get wider or smaller based on the markets liquidity. During an off hour, spreads get bigger, during a busy trading hour, they tighten.
When you are checking out a broker be sure to look at the reviews online as well as go through their website. Look for any information about what the broker says about their own spreads and their own commissions. Be competitive here and aim to find good spreads and commissions offered by different brokers.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how well you do with your trading account if you can't withdrawal your money. When looking for a broker, you want to have easy access to deposit and withdrawal from your account. Usually, a well regulated broker will have a very smooth process with this as opposed to unregulated brokers.
Another aspect to take into account when choosing a forex broker is what trading platforms and tools they provide. You want to make sure that the platforms that your broker is offering are competitive and align with your preferences. Further, checkout the tools that they offer traders on their website.
Lastly, and perhaps most important, you want to make sure your broker has exceptional customer support. When facing issues regarding your money, you want to feel confident that your broker will provide you will easy access to support. Read reviews and reach out to the customer support of different brokers so you can get a feel for how reliable their customer support is.
Hopefully, reading this article provided you with insight on how to choose a great broker. Checkout a list of our favorite brokers here. Or take our broker quiz here to find the best broker for your needs!
As a beginner trader it can be difficult to know which are the best currency pairs to trade. To help identify the best currency pairs to trade you need to understand that different markets have different behaviors. Some currency pairs tend to be highly volatile while others have low volatility. The volatility of the currency pair is important because it indicates the risk associate with that pair. Pairs with higher volatility are associated with high risk while pairs with low volatility are typically less risky.
Often times, new traders gravitate to high volatility markets like gold because they seem more exciting. However, these are not the best currency pairs to trade and can be very dangerous for new traders. Traders who trade with high volatility can make a lot of money in a short period of time. But, just as you can make a lot of money trading with these currency pairs, you can also lose money just as fast (or even faster). Because of this, many new traders who attempt to trade with these currency pairs quickly drain their account.
As a new trader, we suggest avoiding these pairs altogether until you are confident in your strategy. There are a lot of things that could go wrong when you're learning how to trade and you want to avoid making mistakes on highly volatile currency pairs. Remember, our first goal as a trader is to protect our capital, don't risk draining your account trying to make money fast.
Popular High Volatility Pairs:
Currency pairs with low volatility are pairs that move less aggressively and are more forgiving. These types of currency pairs are much more suitable for newer traders. This is because when a new trader makes a mistake, which will inevitably happen throughout the learning process, it will not drain their account. For example, a trade on a currency pair like EURUSD which goes against you may put you down 30 pips in a span of 5 hours. While in that same time frame, a GBPJPY trade that goes against you may put you down 120 pips.
Popular Low Volatility Pairs:
We recommend that newer traders should stick with low volatility pairs like EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, and AUDCHF. Use these pairs to help get your feet wet and test your strategy before jumping into higher volatile markets. To be even more cautious, we recommend starting on a demo account and not to put your hard earned money on the line until you have a strategy behind what you are doing.
One of the most common questions we hear from beginner traders is "How Much Money Do You Need to Trade Forex?" and our answer is: well, it depends. The amount of money you need depends on your goals as a trader. Is your goal to make a lot of money or are you going to try to learn first before you deposit more money? Hint: we recommend the second option, Here's why:
It is likely you were introduced to forex though a social media guru who is trying to sell you on this get rich quick idea of trading. Believe us when we say we've been there (Watch our video here). However, this mentality is a dangerous mentality for new traders. New traders who believe that making money in the foreign exchange market is easy will often over leverage and blow their accounts very quickly.
The reality is that trading forex is one of the most competitive ways to try to make money. Statistically speaking, the majority of new forex traders lose money in their first year and most new traders give up within their first 90 days. So, if you want to get into forex trading to quickly make a lot of money, you're probably better off somewhere else.
It is possible to make money trading forex, but it's not easy and it takes time. To get to the point in your trading career where you're making money you must be motivated by something other than money, because it won't always be there. Is trading something you are passionate about? Or are you just trying to find a way to make money? Trading will get tough, what is going to help you push through the tough times?
As a beginner forex trader, we recommend starting with at least $500 on a .01 lot size. With this account size and recommended lot size you aren't going to be making huge returns. However, we would rather you get comfortable making a slow amount of money overtime consistently then taking your $500 and losing it all very quickly because you want to use big positions. If you attempt to trade with a larger lot size you could risk blowing you account very quickly. Remember, it is much easier to lose money in forex than it is to make money.
Although you will not be making huge returns with this account and lot size, you are going to learn a lot and avoid losing your capital. As your account size grows your overall gains will also grow.
Before putting real money into forex trading you have to understand the risks. Knowing that statistically most new traders lose money, it is likely that you will also lose money at the beginning. We do not recommend putting money into forex that you cannot afford to lose. If you do not have money to put into forex that you are comfortable with losing, we recommend trading demo. Trade on a demo account until you are able to put aside this money and feel confident in your strategy.
Trend trading is perhaps one of the most commonly used strategies in the forex world. In this article we will be sharing tips on how to determine the end of one forex trend and the potential start of a new one. We will share 3 specific clues that you should be looking for when trend trading that will help improve your entries and exits.
One of the first indicators that a forex trend is ending is a trend line break. Taking a look at the chart below, you can see that there are multiple points throughout this bullish trend where price was supported by the bulls. Throughout this trend, the pair continued to form higher highs and higher lows which proves price to be strong. However, at some point this forex market was ready to start heading south. At this point, circled in the image below, buyers were no longer able to buy this market higher. This was the first time throughout this trend we see a pullback which is not supported by the bulls, showing that the market is likely ready to reverse.
After a trend line break, the first sign that a forex trend is ending, we see a bullish push back that fails to meet higher highs. Throughout the bullish trend price continued to reach higher highs. However, after the initial trend line break we see lower highs beginning to form. Thus, indicating that bears are pushing the market back down.
Finally, we see this level of support, which has held for many weeks get violated and broken beneath. Price eventually dropped below a significant level of support showing that sellers have control of this market.
Looking back, we had 3 major clues that this trend may be headed to the downside. these clues are possible things you can look for to potentially find the start of new trends or the end of a trend. We had a bullish structure and when we saw this structure break it gave us a clear indication that sellers may have some room to run. Our second indication was the forming of a lower high. Finally, there was a break of structural support. With this information about trend trading, we could have identified the series of lower highs and potentially taken a short position.
Being in the 5% club means making consistent gains on your forex account. This is done by building an account through small and steady gains and building it at a rate in which you can control it. In this article, we will share a few attributes of profitable forex traders which we believe are critical to their success.
Unfortunately, 90-95% of forex traders fail to ever make it to a point where their winning trades outweigh their losing ones. Often times, the traders who fail to make it to the 5% club are those who expect to quickly make money through trading or attempt to flip accounts in a short period of time. Traders with this mindset will usually lose money quickly and burn out fast.
5 Reasons why Traders Fail: Tips from an Experienced Trader!
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
The first step to being successful in trading is creating a profitable strategy. This is achieved by spending significant time backtesting and researching forex trading strategies. The next step, which is often harder for traders, is to actually follow through with that plan. In stressful times traders have a tendency to change their approach to avoid losing a trade. This usually leaves traders in a worse situation than they would be in if they had stuck with their original plan. Make sure you've backtest your strategy and have the confidence to stick with it!
Download our FREE trading plan template here.
Becoming a profitable trader won't happen overnight. Trading successfully requires patience, consistency, and grit. There is no fast pass to success in trading. Trading requires lots of backtesting and strategizing to develop a plan which works for you. Your success in trading is a personal journey that only you can earn. Trading mentors can guide you on the path to success but in the end you are responsible for doing the work.
If your only interest in trading forex is to make money, you probably won't make it too long before you burn out. As we mentioned previously, becoming a successful trader takes grit. You will likely lose many trades before you'll win some. For some traders, it takes years before they're consistently making more than they are losing. To be able to make it through these harder times you have to be motivated by something other than monetary success, because it won't always be there. You have to truly love trading and love the process.
Learn how to trade EURUSD, the largest and most traded currency pair in the entire world. The Euro is so heavily traded due to massive economies in the United States, and European union. The need for high volumes of currency exchange between these two areas makes the EURUSD a very popular currency pair to trade. The high trading volume in this pair makes it an attractive market to trade - for both experienced and new traders. One major advantage of trading the EURUSD is that this high trading volume usually leads to tighter spreads (and hence lower trading costs + easier execution!)
When trading the EURUSD, fundamental analysis plays a large role.
A major component to the Euro rising or falling has to do with the central bank policies of each respective economy. If the dollar for example is hawkish, and has a strong outlook for the US economy, it is possible to see the Euro fall, causing the currency pair to fall.
If the Euro is strong, and/or the dollar is weak, we would expect to see weakening unemployment in the US, and/or strong figures coming from the Euro region in things like inflation (CPI), retail sales, unemployment, etc.
When trading the EURUSD, technical analysis can be a useful tool to help with entries and exits. The EURUSD shifts from being a back and forth, choppy market, to a strongly trending market.
In times of back and forth, lazy price action, the EURUSD can be a great range bound market to trade. Simple Bollinger band, and support and resistance concepts can work great when employed properly during this time.
When the EURUSD is in a trending state, watch for breakouts on the higher timeframes, and pullbacks to key levels of support or resistance.
Our analysts share their analysis and trade ideas on EURUSD. Click the button below to view their analysis now!
Trading forex is like running your own business. It takes a lot of time, strategy, and dedication to see sustainable results. While there is no one way to be successful in trading, there are steps you can take to increase your likelihood. One way of becoming successful is develop a strong forex trading plan that leads to probable success. Here are 3 tips to help create a successful trading plan. Download our free forex trading plan template at the bottom of the page!
The truth is, all traders will experience drawdown periods throughout their journey. The goal of a great trading plan is not to avoid ever taking losses because they will inevitably happen. Instead, your goal as a trader should be to maximize your profits and minimize your loses. Without risk management in your trading plan you will not survive drawdowns as they are bound to happen.
Need help with risk management? Check out our Ultimate Guide to Risk Management Mastery in Forex Trading here.
As we mentioned before, losses are inevitable but that doesn't mean they get any easier to accept. Losing money can be extremely taxing on your emotions. On the other hand, it's easy to get euphoric and over leverage your trades when you're taking profits.
The most important thing with drawdowns (or winning streaks) is to know how to respond. When in a drawdown, it is natural to want to recover your losses quickly. However, if you react in this way you may end up taking trades that don't line up with your strategy out of desperation and consequently losing even more money. On the other hand, when you're experiencing a winning streak it is important to not to feel invincible and take riskier trades that could result in you losing everything you just won.
Start small, master your emotions. Understand that as a beginner it is likely that you will not be profitable.
With the Proper Strategy, Risk Management and Trading Psychology, you can be successful in the forex market. However, these concepts take time so don't rush it.
Get access to our forex trading plan pdf
Using forex trading robots is an easy way to automate steps in your trading so you don't have to constantly be watching your charts. Using a forex trading robot like the Grandmaster Expert Advisor you can set your preferred parameters, have the bot watch charts that you're interested in and automatically enter trades based on your set parameters.
The Grandmaster Forex Robot was developed by the founder of A1 Trading Company, Nick Syiek (also known as "Tradernick" on YouTube). Nick's motivation behind the Grandmaster EA is to create a system that builds and manages a position before taking profits if they come about. Additionally, the grandmaster is programmed with a focus on risk management.
The Forex Trading Robot is a grid based expert advisor built to adapt with market movements as per the operator’s set parameters. It is designed to work on the Metatrader 4 (MT4) platform only. The robot gives the user the option to set their own preferred grid, set their lot sizes, profit targets, and more.
The trading robot is NOT designed to be 100% automated and do all the work for you. However, it will help automate components of your trading to make your trading process less time consuming.
Who should be using the Grandmaster Forex Robot?
Although forex trading robots are excellent tools to help automate components of your trading, the Grandmaster Forex Robot is NOT designed to be "set and forget". Unfortunately, forex trading robots are not a magical money machines and will require manual intervention from a trader who understands risk management and has an adequate understanding of trading.
In order to use the Grandmaster Forex Trading Robot you will need:
Interested in trying out our forex trading robot? Purchase the Grandmaster Forex Robot here OR get the Grandmaster for FREE with your purchase of the Gold VIP Membership (along with 7 of our other awesome scanners, indicators, & bots!).
