Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 17th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at AUDUSD, EURUSD, EURAUD & XAUUSD. This will be the final WFF of 2021 as I'm going abroad to spend time with family. Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, and I will be back from mid-January to continue this series of articles.
Price recently broke out of the ascending channel, making a touch of the 0.70 key horizontal level which dates back all the way to September 2018, and is now on its way to potentially making a touch of the ascending channel. Look out for whether we see price re-enter the channel, suggesting further bullish moves towards the channel's top OR if we see price reject the channel's bottom, suggesting further bearish moves towards 0.70 and potentially new recent lows.
Price is forming a triangle pattern following the break of the descending channel. Watch out for a break of this pattern, if we see a break above, look out for the retest and rejection before potentially going long. If we see price break lower, look out for the retest and rejection before going short. A break above 1.14 opens up price to 1.16; a short-term key level.
After breaking out of the ascending triangle pretty early, price has made its full move but is now retesting the pattern's resistance at around 1.57 which is the same as the ascending triangle from May earlier this year. Watch out for a rejection of this level, where following successive price action confirmations would be a potentially good time to go long on this pair.
Gold continues to consolidate for another week, still failing to break below 1765 suggesting its potentially waiting for a major catalyst to create a new trend in the market. Price will likely be slow during the Christmas and New Years period.
For any questions or comments, you can reach me at @TraderBart on Telegram or @TraderBart#2638 through the A1Trading discord.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 10th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCAD, EURAUD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.
Price is now consolidating at the resistance of the previous ascending triangle pattern at 1.283. Over the next week, lookout for a potential break of this level, this opens up price to levels such as 1.293 and 1.31. If price fails to break this level, it's likely it will continue acting as resistance and instead, we could see a bearish run back down towards 1.258.
Price is now just below a short-term key horizontal level 1.618 following the break of the ascending triangle and horizontal level 1.59. Over the next week, look out for a potential break above 1.618 which suggests a bullish run to follow, opening price up to 1.635 and potentially new higher highs.
Looking at G/J in the long-run, price is definitely failing to make a new trend and break yearly highs at around 156.0-158.0. Price is currently making its fourth recent touch of 149.0 and over the next couple of weeks, a break below this level suggests potential long-term bearishness towards 129.0. If price reverses and instead stays above, it's also potential we could still see new highs being made. This is a long-term view so would need to look over the chart for months.
Gold is continuing to stay above the long-term level 1765 and no major moves were made over the past week. Price did reject 1800 which suggests we could be seeing potential bearish moves coming up. A break below 1765 opens up price to levels such as 1725 and 1675. If price continues to stay above 1765 over the next week, it's likely we could be seeing price coming up to retest previous levels such as 1800 and 1835.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 3rd, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPNZD & EURAUD.
Price has fallen below the key horizontal level 1.14 which was seen as clear resistance many times in the past, and it looks like price may be going to retest this same level to either confirm as clear resistance or potentially make its way above this level again. Look out for price action confirmations as to how price reacts to this level before potentially going short.
Price has made the next touch of the channel's bottom in this descending channel, and we could potentially see the trend continue and price head towards the channel's top. Look out for how price reacts to the key horizontal 1.342 level, as a break above suggests this whereas if price fails to break above, it's like we could see further downside movement to continue.
I've been pointing out that price did hit the bullish OB a couple of weeks ago, and it looks like price is now approaching the first TP just above 1.96 as it's potentially going to go inside this bullish breaker block. If price enters this zone and we see rejections, it's likely price will continue consolidating whereas a clear break outside of this zone higher suggests further bullish moves to continue.
Price broke out of this ascending triangle pattern pretty early and has already gone to the short-term key horizontal level 1.59 where it was seen as clear support previously. If price begins to reject this level, it's likely we will see price head back inside the pattern, but a break above suggests further bullish moves to follow, potentially towards 1.62 the next resistance.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 26th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, GBPAUD, EURAUD & XAUUSD.
Waiting for price to make the next lower low in this medium-term descending channel. Currently, price is struggling to successfully break lower below 1.342. However, we are seeing a short-term bearish flag pattern and price is at the bottom of this ascending channel, expecting a pattern completion and a break lower soon. Looking for targets around 1.33 to make the next lower low.
Price has made a successful bullish move following the touch of the bullish breaker block, and currently sitting below a short-term key horizontal level 1.858. If we see price break above this level, look for a retest followed by successive rejections for a continued bullish move. If we see price struggle to break higher, and instead reject this level and head lower, it's likely we could see further bearish moves, and potentially a move back below the breaker block marking this zone no longer valid.
Price has fallen underneath the resistance of the ascending triangle pattern back in May, and in the past two weeks, we have seen this same level continuing to act as resistance. Currently, price is once again making its way back to this level again. A break above this level suggests further bullish moves to follow, but further rejections could suggest a move back to new recent lows.
Gold nearish the bottom of this recent ascending channel, so I'm expecting a bounce off this line and a potential move up higher. We have been seeing price break recent highs such as 1800 and 1835, we did reach as far as 1880 the LV I've been mentioning in the past weeks. Looking for price to continue this move higher.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPNZD & XAUUSD.
Following on from my A/U deep dive here, price did infact continue the move downwards towards the channel's bottom following a strong USD from positive tapering and inflation news. Currently, we're seeing a little retracement on the move we've had over the week, but its likely price will continue the trend to create the next higher low at the channel's bottom around 0.725.
Price is breaking all medium-term lows and is now approaching pre-pandemic levels such as the resistance at 1.14. Price is pretty much there already, but look out for how price reacts to this level, a break below followed by successive retests and rejections, opens up price to key horizontal levels lower such as support at 1.12.
Last week we saw price reject off the daily bullish order block at exactly 100% and made a 150+ pip move to the upside already. We are seeing some rejections to the upside, so it's a potential that this zone could be broken and made into a breaker block, a zone to go short from. Look out for price action confirmations to how price reacts in the week ahead to the zone it's in currently, a rejection off higher suggests we'll be revising the previous support level at 1.92.
Gold has created the next higher high in this short-term ascending channel, and just below the liquidity void at 1880-1900. Watch out for price to make its next higher low at the channel's bottom, to look for buying opportunities at a discounted price. If we see price retrace towards the resistance it has recently broken at 1835, look out for rejections to this zone to go long. If price falls back below, it's likely that further bearish moves back lower will follow.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 5th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD & XAUUSD.
Price came back up to the top of the descending channel following the break of the rising wedge. We saw some rejection on Friday and we'll most likely get another clear touch of the top before potentially reversing and continuing the downtrend, aiming for a break below previous support at 0.91 and most likely heading Howards the weekly bullish order block at around 0.90.
Price made a nice 100 pip fall on Friday as it has now rejected off the top of this descending channel and is now possibly making its way to the bottom. 1.358 is the next support level where we may see some consolidation, however if we see a successful break, 1.34 will be the determining level whether we see price head towards the bottom and make the next low.
Price took a huge bearish hit on Friday falling over 110 pips, below the short-term key horizontal level 1.16 and now back at the descending channel's bottom. If we see price break below 1.152 which was the most recent low, it's likely we'll see continued bearish movements towards 1.138 to fill in the gap from July last year.
Gold continuing to consolidate around the same area I've mentioned in the previous weeks, but we did see price make a huge drop on Friday dropping over 150 pips outside the short-term ascending channel. 1765 is a long-term key horizontal level to look out for as price is nearing this level now, if we see a break lower then its likely we will see further bearish moves to follow, however if we see price reach this level and strong reject to the upside, bullish moves will follow back up towards 1800, the same way price has been consolidating for the past couple weeks.
Let's look at the news event's we've got lining up this week...
The quarterly AUD Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is releasing on Wednesday, which measures the change in the average price basket of goods and services by consumers, which can be anything from food, transportation and medical care. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with living in the country. It is one of the most used statistics to identify periods of inflation or deflation.
Analysts expect a pickup in the headline figure by another 0.8% and a 0.5% gain in the trimmed mean CPI for Q3. Better than expected results could spur further gains for the Australian currency, given how the economy is recovering after the pandemic lockdowns, this could also push the RBA into action, potentially considering hiking interest rates to keep price pressures in check.
No changes to the 0.25% interest rate are eyes, but the BoC might have some adjustments to asset purchases. Employment and inflation figures have surpassed expectations in the past couple of months, so the BoC could stay on track towards ending their easing program by the end of the year, meaning a reduction from C$2B to C$1B in weekly asset purchases.
No changes to interest rates or bond purchases are expected from the ECB, and policymakers might slice hopes of an interest rate hike for next year since stagflation remains a strong threat in the region. Nonetheless, the energy crunch and supply chain issues are also weighing on growth prospects.
A Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is a measure of the size and health of a country's economy over a period of time. The figure sums up the country's performance in terms of trade, consumer activity, government spending and investment during a particular period.
Analysts are expecting to see a slower 2.6% expansion following an impressive 6.7% growth figure previously. Weaker job growth and rising price levels likely kept consumer spending in check, even as businesses slowly resume normal operations. The Atlanta Fed GDP model is pointing to a meager 0.5% growth figure, so a downside surprise could be likely.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is releasing on Friday and it reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the US. Slightly slower price pressures are eyed since the reading could dip from 0.3% to 0.2% in September. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and hence should be a very big deal!
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending October 1st, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCHF, EURUSD, EURAUD & USDCAD.
I usually look at Gold every week as part of this Weekly Forex Forecast series, however I have done a deep dive article on Friday, click the link here to take a look if you're interested in my outlook on Gold.
Price has formed a rising wedge chart pattern in the medium term. We can see bulls were firmly rejected at the resistive trend line last week and is now heading towards the supportive trend line for a possible breakout. If we see continued USD strength like last week, we will likely see price reverse soon and once again head for new highs in the wedge. With upcoming NFP news, if we instead see negative outcomes for the USD and a rise in unemployment, we could see price break out of this wedge and likely head towards the bullish order block at 0.90 formed from the weekly timeframe.
Price has closed below the channel's bottom in this descending channel below the 1.16 key horizontal level. We will likely see price enter the channel once more and retrace the bearish move it made last week. Service sector PMIS for Italy and Spain, France, Germany and the Eurozone are due out on Tuesday. The German economy will be in the spotlight as we have factory orders, industrial production and trade data rolling out throughout the week. Remember, a positive result for NFP on Friday will push prices lower.
Price has formed a key horizontal level in the medium term at 1.59, where we are seeing price is now nearing once again, forming a head and shoulders pattern with this being the neckline. Look out for a break and retest of this support level, to see if price confirms it as new resistance, and if so it's likely we'll head towards the next key levels such as 1.57 where we have seen price act as both resistance and support in the past at the ascending triangle pattern.
Price is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance holding just above around 1.28. Currently, we see price near the supportive trend line, and we're now looking out for price action confirmations of a rejection to catch a potential reversal to the top. It's likely we'll still see consolidation continue below the resistance, as we're still pretty wide to closing the gap.
Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending September 24th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.
Price has been consolidating between 109-111 over the past couple of months, and we recently saw price bounce off the range's support back to the middle of the consolidation zone. Look out for a clear break above or below this structure to catch the new trend, following subsequent retests and rejections.
Huge moves rejecting the channel's top last week on E/U as price breaks below 1.18 and is now nearing the major key horizontal level 1.17. This level has been seen as major support over the past year or so, so look out for how price reacts to this level once we see price clearly enter. It's likely we could see the trend continue and price reaches the channel's bottom, before potentially retracing and making a move back towards 1.18.
Looking at the long-term trend on G/J price has recently touched and rejected off the previous high in this range at 156.0 and is now potentially making its move towards the downside. Currently, we have an ascending channel where price is actually at the bottom, and we're now waiting on clear confirmations whether price will break or respect this channel. If we see price break outside the channel, we'll likely see price continue the long-term trend and head towards the downside.
Price is once again back at the bullish order block at 1740, where financial institutions will push price towards before a reversal to take out traders who went long early, most likely at 1765. If we see price break below this zone, this area will become a breaker block, an area to go short off following subsequent retests and rejections.
The Euro-Dollar pair is down over 0.5% today after several days in the red. Today's speech by EU president Lagarde mentioned how the economic recovery had come quicker than expected six months ago. This was praised by the prompt vaccine distribution so citizens could get back to work. Across the pond, the US just saw a slowing in inflation and an increase in retail sales which were expected to be negative this month. Both sides seem to be recovering well.
The USD looks like it could be the better play here because at least investors are getting hints as to approximately when the Fed will start tapering and raising rates. Lagarde said that Europe is far from recovery, but they are impressed with the pace so far. However, whatever has been said so far, it doesn't seem like investors are taking this all too well and are flocking to the USD today. The pair's general price action has also been relatively weak for the past three months.
EU fell under its 50 DMA and is on support around 1.75400s. If price breaks this level, it could be a catalyst of another significant drop. If this level of support does not break, there could be more consolidation between this support and resistance level.