Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, CADJPY, GBPAUD, XAUUSD (17-22 January 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 22nd, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, CADJPY, GBPAUD & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

Looking at GU on the Daily timeframe, price has been channelling along for almost a year now, forming higher highs and higher lows. We have recently seen price break through the previous higher high's resistance at 1.348, and we're currently seeing some choppy movements in the past couple weeks, with price staying below the intraday resistance at 1.37. If price continues to hold above the previous high's resistance (now new support) at 1.348, then it's a good position to go long, or once we see price break above the intraday resistance at 1.37 then with successive price action confirmations of a continued bullish move, could also be an excellent position to go long as price heads towards the channel's top.

CADJPY

Here price is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at around 82.00. We can see two different ascending trend lines, as price seems to be holding both well, so if trend line 1 gets broken, I'm still expecting trend line 2 to continue holding the pattern together. We could enter this pattern two ways, the first would be on the ascending trend line when price approaches it, and then signs of rejections are visible. The second way would be to wait for price to break above the resistance in this pattern, wait for price to retest, then look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection then go long.

GBPAUD

Looking at GA on the H4 timeframe, we can see price forming another descending triangle pattern right after the previous successful descending triangle, with support at 1.743. Price is currently around the descending trend line, which could be a great position to go short on this pair, once we see clear price action confirmations of a rejection to this level. On the other hand, we could also take another short once price breaks through the support, wait for price to retest then look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection and go short for at least a 1:3 R:R.

XAUUSD

Price has been holding this overall bullish flag pattern since June 2020, price was on its way to break above the channel's top and complete the flag pattern however we saw price fail and return inside the channel. Price is currently consolidating between two intraday levels at 1860 and 1820. Right now I would suggest staying on the sidelines until there are clear confirmations of a move above or below these levels. Once we see price breakthrough either level, look out for a retest then continued price action confirmations of a rejection before taking a position in the desired direction. If price does break below, a move back down to the channel's bottom looks likely.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDJPY, XAUUSD (10-15 January 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 15th, 2021. It's so great to be back, I hope everyone's had a fantastic holiday, and I hope everyone's motivated to work 10x harder than last year. I'm wishing everyone nothing but the best, but apart from that, I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

GU continues to move in this ascending channel, on the 21st of December, we saw price once again respect the channel's support and reject it. Currently, price has broken the previous higher high in the channel at 1.35 and is consolidating just above it, acting as new support. Bulls in the market are looking for price action confirmations of a precise touch and rejection to the 1.348 level and then long however on the other hand bears may wait for price to break below, then treat the 1.348 level as resistance and push down back to previous lows at 1.315. Now looking at fundamentals, there's a lot of mixed bias on where the Pound is heading next. Credit Agricole argued that given the lingering political and economic risks (a Covid-induced double-dip recession) in the UK, they believe that the GBP risks are tilted to the downside in the near-term, especially if the health situation in the UK continues to deteriorate.

EURCHF

Looking at this chart, we've got a clear ascending triangle forming with resistance at 1.085, and we can see that apart from where it's outlined on the chart above, this level has been acting as resistance since June 2020. Price is currently nearing the supportive trend line, and I'm looking to potentially go long once there are clear rejections to this trend line. However, if we don't get a full touch and rejection, I'll look to go long after seeing price break above the resistance, retest and then successfully treat this old resistance as new support. The Bank of America explains that they are skeptical about substantial further EUR strength, particularly during a Eurozone recession that is more severe than in most of the world. The long EUR market position also makes it one of the most vulnerable G10 currencies to an overall market risk-off.

USDJPY

UJ has been travelling below this descending trend line since July 2020 and is now slowly approaching the trend line, expected at around 104.3. Bears in this market would look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection to the trend line once we get a clear touch however bulls in this could potentially wait for price to break this structure, and once the previous resistance at 104.7 is met and broken, they could look for potential entries around there to complete the move back to the previous highs at 108. We could expect this structure to be broken, considering that the USD is now the weakest of the majors, having turned negative on the day following an overall disappointing December employment report with NFP printing at -140K versus consensus of +60K.

XAUUSD

Price is still in this overall bullish flag pattern; we saw a potential completed move to the upside as price was travelling in a short-term channel following a successful 3rd touch and rejection of the channel's supportive trend line. However, as we can see, this was broken, and price fell right through back inside the channel once again. If price continues to hold the current level at 1850, we could see the bullish break happen again however if price breaks below I think it's likely we'll get a 4th touch of the channel's support. The US Jobs report was mixed although the headline shocked to the downside, falling 140k, well beneath the estimates of a 71k rise, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% (expected 6.8%), and the participation rate remained at 61.5%. Although the headline was grim, the prior was revised up to +336k from +245k. The wage data jumped to 0.8% m/m from 0.3% m/m (exp. 0.2%), likely as many of the lower-paid services jobs were lost as the Hospitality and Leisure sector battles the pandemic. It raises the prospects for more stimulus from fiscal authorities and combined with an entirely Democratic government, and it furthers the possibilities even more.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Throughout the year, we've seen many changes to the way we trade, how we manage risk and how we interpret the markets. The new insights we have gained over the months usually come after years of trading and adapting to ever-changing environments. We've done all that in a matter of months! Up until the New Year, we will see even more changes to the way we trade as news about stimulus, BREXIT, COVID-19 and other things storm the market and dominate the news. With all this in mind, from what we currently know, here are some things that we think will be top tier for trading/investing in the markets, forex, metals and crypto from here and into the next year.

Because we're looking for ideas that stay relevant in the longer term (as in 2020 and 2021), these ideas/setups are going to be more fundamentally based rather than short-term technical setups.

EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD daily chart

This pair has proven to be very volatile during times of economic fallout. That spike we see starting in late February kept bringing up new highs for a massive gain once the rally was over. With the news about the UK and their emergency from the new COVID strain, we could see heavy volatility from here on as a new strain could be bad news for our most recent vaccines. One thing we can take from a trade like is momentum. If governments start announcing further shut downs worldwide, expect this pair to take flight once more.

Biden's Goals for Solar Power and Cannabis

As of January 2021, the Biden Administration plans to decriminalize marijuana as well as help introduce more solar panels as they push to end the era of fossil fuels. Experts in the clean energy field have established that solar power is now less costly than fossil fuel plants. Companies like SolarEdge (SEDG) and Sunrun (RUN) could see some long term growth in the next 4 years.

Cannabis is also something to look out for during Biden's presidency. With the MORE Act already passing through Congress which aims to decriminalize pot, it's up to the Senate to push it through although it is considered unlikely. Nevertheless, more bills continue to swing into view such as the STATES Act. This bill will help companies in their profits by giving them tax breaks since they pay sky-high amounts as of now. Although these bills are not guaranteed to pass, this shows that the government is pushing toward more leniency on this industry and will likely reach some sort of conclusion with the help of Biden's push for legalization.

Gold

XAU/USD 4H chart

Gold will also have a big role to play in the coming months as well as into 2021. As you probably know, gold is a risk-off investment and usually performs well when the USD suffers. This year, stimulus brought about some extreme printing of money pouring into the US economy. This in turn, hurt the USD causing the XAU/USD pair to skyrocket in the summer.

With the new COVID strain out in the UK, there are some things we need to consider: what does this mean for our vaccine? And will countries have to shut down once more? If this strain of the virus becomes another global situation, it is likely that our country will have to repeat the same process back in February and March. A country-wide shut down will only hurt recovering businesses more, and stimulus will be needed to be pumped back into the economy. If the future were to play out like this, the USD will only be further weakened as gold will rise in demand. Analysts also believe in a $2000 price target for this metal.

Crypto

Similarly to gold, cryptos will likely see a rise in demand if the USD falls. More analysts, hedge funds and banks are starting to recognize this type of currency transaction as the way of the future after being so bearish on them for the past three years.

Bitcoin had a key thing happen with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust increased their asset in Bitcoin to over $13 billion from $1 billion last year. We are also starting to see more funds get into this crypto like Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. who bought about $100 million to add to their portfolio.

Another crypto to look out for going into 2021 is the meme currency, dogecoin. After Musk's latest tweet about doge, the pair soared 20% reaching highs from July. Elon Musk is clearly joking when he talks about dogecoin, yet his words still bring traction to the market. In an effort for investors to raise it over $1, investors don't need valuation to justify a ridiculous price; they just need the hype.

-

One thing we could take away from this year is that with hype comes momentum, and it's usually a good bit of it. We saw the way EUR/AUD took off at the beginning of the government shut downs. We saw global stocks rise to all-time highs after the Fed announced their stimulus package. Gold hit record highs as well, all from momentum. The circumstances change, but the idea is always the same. If we can look passed the fact some things may seem worthless (like Bitcoin in 2017, like Tesla in 2019), we can be in for some very profitable trades in the New Year. It all comes down to momentum.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (13-18 December 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 18th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

Price has been travelling in this ascending channel since March forming higher highs and higher lows. Over the past couple weeks, I've been saying we are now forming the next swing in the market, making our way to the channel's top. However, we saw price form the rising wedge, which price has now broken out off and made a move to the downside, touching the channel's bottom. Buyers in this market would look to go long at around 1.31 as long as there isn't a daily candle close below the channel and target the channel's top at around 1.40. Sellers in this market would look to go short at around 1.327 as long as price can hold and reject this intraday level once more. They could look for targets outside of the channel if price confirms a new trend at around 1.29 and possibly 1.20. Click here for my fundamental outlook on this pair.

USDJPY

Price has been moving in a strong bearish trend, staying below the descending trend line, we can see many touch, rejection and bounce off this trend line. Currently, we're seeing price consolidate between 104.7 and 103.7, and the direction market could be heading next is unknown, until we see a clear breakout of these levels. If we see the overall trend continue, and price breaks below the range, then sellers could look to enter on the retest of the previous support level and target 103.00 and a previous low at 101.50. If we see price break above this range, then buyers could look to enter on the retest of the previous resistance level and target the 105.40 level and previous highs at 107.00.

GBPJPY

Similarly to GU, price is also travelling in an ascending channel forming successive higher highs and higher lows. We can see the ascending triangle pattern, which was formed with resistance at 137.70, price broke out, formed a new resistance at 140.00 and now treats the previous resistance as new support. Price dropped back down to the channel's bottom, near enough at the same support level. Buyers in this market would look to go long at around 137.00, and look for targets at around 140.00 and then 147.00. Sellers in this market would look to go short at around 137.70 as long as price can hold and reject the previous resistance and continue treating it as resistance, targetting 133.00 and 126.00. We may also see a completely new trend form if we see the Daily candle close below the channel's bottom.

XAUUSD

I've been pointing out this bullish flag pattern which price has formed on this pair. We saw price touch, reject and bounce off the channel's bottom and price is now stuck consolidating at the previous support level of the second descending triangle pattern in the channel. Buyers would go long at around 1850, or 1885 once there are clear price action confirmations of a continued bullish move, and look for targets at around 1924 and 2050. Sellers would go short at around 1850, or 1820 or there are clear price action confirmations of a continued bearish move, and look for targets at around 1785 and 1730.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (06-11 December 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 11th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

I've been pointing out this long-term ascending channel that's been formed since the Covid-19 crash back in March which inside the channel has formed a rising wedge pattern. Looking at price action, Friday closed off with a shooting star candle suggesting a possible bearish move ahead as bulls were not able to push and hold price above the previous higher high in the channel. Switching to the H4 timeframe, since October price has been consolidating and breaking through key levels in the market. For example, notice how 1.315 was a resistance level, then once it was broken and price retested it, it became new support. The same principle happened with 1.328, it was seen as clear resistance; however, once it was broken, it was treated as further support. And now finally we've got the same thing going on with resistance at 1.34 where it was seen as clear resistance however we saw price break this level last week and is also now pretty much retesting this level. I'm hoping we can see price reject this level in the week ahead and confirm it as new support, pushing price higher in this ascending channel.

USDCAD

We've just seen price break through a major support in this descending triangle pattern at 1.30. Price has also closed off for the week at a higher low of the ascending channel seen here. I think it's likely we could see price break through every support level that was formed from the channel. Looking at the economies of both currencies, we all know the Dollar is very weak at the moment, primarily due to the continued uproar in Coronavirus cases in the US now approaching 15M cases and 300K deaths. The Canadian Dollar on the other hand is looking a lot better, GDP for the third quarter printed at 8.9% and 40.5% annualised. Though it was a big improvement from the second quarter's GDP, it still missed expectations with market consensus at 47.6% and a minimum expectation of 43.1%. I'm looking for a bearish move on this pair, as oil prices are expected to increase in the next couple of months and unless we see a major breakthrough in the US risk outlook, weakness should continue to push the dollar lower.

GBPJPY

Similarly to GU, price is also travelling in this ascending channel since the Covid crash and we've got this ascending triangle pattern formed. Price broke out of the 137.6 resistance, retested and is now consolidating at the 139.7 resistance formed after the breakout. I'm still looking for this chart pattern to make a full move to the upside and also make the next swing in the channel. Looking at fundamentals now, due to the likely Brexit-deal agreement, we should see the Pound gaining heaps of strength, and this will especially happen against overvalued and low-yielding currencies. The coronavirus and global economic outlook will remain heavily influential on the Yen, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. As a whole the Yen so far is doing good to recover however I think we could only see price make the full move once we see the UK/EU Brexit talks conclude a deal agreement.

XAUUSD

We've got this clean descending channel and price is now approaching the previous support at 1855 in the descending triangle pattern here after touching the channel's support and reversing to the upside. I think as of right now, it's very unclear as to what could happen next; we must wait to see how price reacts to this level, whether we see a clear rejection of this level this could suggest a bearish move however if we see a break of this level, then confirmed new support, we could see a bullish movement to the upside again and touch the channel's top. In addition to this though, when placing the Fib retracement level, seeing as this is a bullish flag pattern, we've had the third touch at the 78.6% level, so I'm expecting this pattern to be completed. Not only this, however, but we've also seen over the past year that every time price has approached or touched the 200MA, we've had a bullish move to the upside. In addition to this, as the dollar is weakening due to all the examples mentioned in the USDCAD fundamental explanation, and gold being a safe-haven, is expected to rise in value, most probably pushing this pair more to the upside.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, XAUUSD (29-04 December 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 4th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD & XAUUSD.

GBP/USD

Looking at the overall market, we've got a clear ascending channel forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, we're about halfway through the current swing in the market, as price bounced off the channel's support at the start of November and we're now on our way to reach the resistance. Buyers are probably watching out for price action confirmations at the previous resistance at 1.328 and looking for price to treat this as new support, and continuing the bullish move. However, sellers will see that price failed to break through the 1.34 resistance, the same level as the previous higher high in the channel. This also lines up with not only the rising wedge formation which price is now breaking out of. Also, we're backed by some institutions like TD Bank and Credit Agricole who are saying the Pound is beginning to look expensive and according to Brexit-proxy indicators, GBP scores poorly on a mix of short-term valuation and growth, where relative mobility trends point to another run below 1.30. Also, with Biden pushing for a stimulus before year-end, this will further strengthen the USD and therefore points more towards a drop in this market. For extended fundamentals click here.

AUD/USD

There's a mixed outlook on this market because we've got this bearish butterfly harmonic pattern formed in addition to the double top at the 0.738 level. The AUD is relatively neutral at the moment, and the performance in commodities will remain the dominant driver and influence moving forward. However looking at this market as a buyer, I've been watching the progress in this descending triangle pattern which broke to the upside, and they're likely to want to continue pushing price higher. I think we could see bullish moves as we've got a weak USD currently caused by participants moving out of safe-havens and back into riskier assets. This could without a doubt push price higher to previous long-term levels such as 0.75 or even monthly resistance levels like 0.80. For this reason, I'm a bit mixed at the moment, I would also pay close attention to how the Australian government will contain and deal with the Covid outbreak. For extended fundamentals click here.

EUR/CAD

Price has been travelling within this descending channel October forming successive lower lows and lower highs. I pointed this out two weeks ago that price was approaching the channel's resistance however we've still yet to see a clear touch, rejection and bounce-off the resistance. Sellers in the market are likely to want to push price lower targeting the -27% Fib level, which is 0.52. However, looking at the recent moves, we can see loads of consolidation between 1.546 and 1.555 as there's mixed outlooks on these currencies. The EUR is highly dependant on the Coronavirus outbreak as countries are re-implementing second lockdowns, the risks for the EUR will be to the downside. Whereas the CAD's expectations for policy tightening will likely support CAD, while expectations for policy easing will likely pressure CAD. I would suggest waiting on more clear drivers before taking any positions on this pair. For extended fundamentals click here.

XAU/USD

We've got this overall bullish flag pattern formed, with price now at the channel's support and just surpassing the 71% fib level. Buyers are most likely looking for a clear rejection and bounce off this level and completing this chart pattern, pushing price back to 1855 and 1900 level. The fact that market participants have moved out of safe-havens and into riskier assets, this factor along with the USD following unprecedented easing from the Fed in prior months, and now expectations for prolonged easing as the central bank has adopted AIT, has notably weakened the USD. It's hard to say what will happen next, but I think we could see price reversing from this zone and back into the 1900 level, but this is just a possibility, with constant vaccine news, anything could happen. For extended fundamentals click here.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF, XAUUSD (22-27 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 27th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF & XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Looking at the chart above, we can see this pair is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 1.1900. Price is travelling along the ascending trendline nicely, all presenting bullish opportunities. If we do see a break of this resistance, this could open up targets such as 1.21. Additionally, reputable sources such as Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs & Credit Agricole are all expecting EURUSD to pick up bullish momentum and are all looking for targets around 1.20, 1.22, and 1.25. However, looking at a seller's perspective, price has now reached a weekly descending channel's resistance, and with all the recent Coronavirus vaccine news, the Eurozone is expected to recover first before the US, leading to big money fleeing the dollar and building positions in EUR. This could potentially cause considerable drops in this pair, opening up targets at 1.18 or lower.

AUD/USD

Looking at this pair, price formed an ascending triangle pattern and broke out in the reverse direction, to the upside. Continuing from last week's analysis on this pair, price is consolidating between these two levels, holding support at 0.722 and resistance at 0.733. I am looking for a continued bullish move, expecting price to break through the resistance and completing this pattern. As we know, Credit Suisse is long on AUD/USD currently with entries around 0.72, and looking for targets around 0.75; if we see a break of that resistance, we could easily hop on this train and potentially catch many pips. Additionally, as we know, there is a lot of positive vaccine news rolling out, causing enormous strength in the USD. Knowing this, more should be coming up, like EUA approvals, funding approvals, and much more; we could see this pair shoot up easily!

AUD/CHF

This pair is now forming a descending channel after a sharp bullish impulse. Last week price has closed at the resistance of this channel; we're still yet to see a second or third clear touch of the support. This suggests possible short-term bearish positions we could place and wait until price does form precise touches, then we could hold long positions until we see price complete this pattern, of course after continued successive price action confirmations of this. If, however, we see a breakout on this pair without any further downside moves, we could look to go long once we see a clear retest and rejection of this resistance trend line. Additionally, if we see price break this resistance, zooming out on the Daily chart, we can see a long-term level acting as resistance for a while; if we do see price break this level, this could open up levels as 0.683 and 0.70.

XAU/USD

We have a clear descending triangle pattern visible on this pair and price currently holding at the 1860 support. As expected last week, more positive vaccine news came out with the pharmaceutical company Moderna at 94.5% effectiveness, and the next day Pfizer and BioNTech coming out with a 95% effective vaccine. This is unquestionably huge for the currency; we could finally see life go back to normal and an "escape" out of this pandemic. Private sources shared that Pfizer is in regular communications with Biden's Covid team. I expect this pair to certainly shoot down and, at the same time, complete this pattern. Once we see price break this support, this opens up targets at previous monthly levels such as 1750, 1560, and 1440.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPJPY, AUDUSD, EURCAD, XAUUSD (15-20 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 20th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPJPY, AUDUSD, EURCAD & XAUUSD.

GBP/JPY

Looking at the overall trend in this market, price is currently travelling in a healthy ascending channel. Looking closely, price has formed an ascending triangle pattern just above the support of the channel. Price has failed twice to break through the resistance at 137.650; however, last week, we finally saw a successful break to the upside, and price has now closed off for the week at the retest of that same resistance level. I am now looking out for successful rejections to this level, acting as new support, and then I will be going long targeting the previous higher high at 142.000 and possibly the resistance of this channel at 146.000. These are obviously quite far away from the current price, however with positive Coronavirus vaccine news coming out (and expected to come out over the next couple of weeks), we could easily see price shoot straight up to these levels.

AUD/USD

Looking at this market, we have got a downtrend formed; price is forming lower highs and lower lows. However, as you can see, it has been struggling to make clear lower lows. Price has been failing to break through the support level at 0.7020, and this has formed a much clearer descending triangle pattern instead. With this pattern, I usually expect a continued downwards move; however, we have seen a break to the upside. After the initial breakout, price has retested to the major 0.7220 level, which was seen multiple times as clear support or resistance. Price retested, treated this level as clear support, and is now bouncing off and making a continued upwards move. It is not too late to enter on this pair, ideally would be around 0.7230; we could still see this level being met as we open next week. Extended fundamental analysis will be heard in the YouTube video; click the pink button at the top of this article.

EUR/CAD

Price has been travelling in this descending channel for a while now, forming successive lower highs and lower lows. Price is now approaching this channel's resistance, so there is still some potential bullish positions that could be taken before the short of catching the next swing of the trade. This resistance also matches up nicely with the 78.6% Fib retracement level, and a short position at 1.560 after successful price action confirmations of a continued downwards movement would be an ideal entry. I am looking to target the area around the 0.0% Fib level, for a completed channel move. VIP members will be informed if I take this trade.

XAU/USD

Last week I expected a bullish move on this pair, following the likely results of the elections being a Biden win. However, on Monday morning, we had absolutely fantastic news that the pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced positive results for a Coronavirus vaccine, which was "90% effective". This caused completely enormous strength in all currencies, causing price to drop back into this descending triangle pattern. Even Goldman Sachs said, "the vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets than prospective policies of a Biden administration". I am looking to go short on this pair at around the 1898-1902 area once there are clear rejections to the trend line. There should be more upcoming (most likely to be positive) vaccine news, so I expect this pair to absolutely shoot down.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVED VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

EUR/USDBearish
GBP/USDBearish
AUD/NZDBearish
XAU/USDBullish
SPX500Bearish

EU struggles to pass 1.2000s as US markets fall from overvalued prices in the stock market. The pair is back in a support zone showing that price wants to go lower. A break in that support zone (which is a common pattern we see in a couple other pairs) would be a sign that we are in for continued downtrend.

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GU comes back for a second test on support without making a promising rally on the daily chart. GU has very strong support on the daily chart with June support and the 200 DMA. A bounce would seem likely, however, a break would be very bearish for the pair that's been running up since March.

AUDNZD falls to another low as it comes up to resistance. Key support is not very clear on the daily chart except for the 200 DMA way down at around 1.6000s. Gold continues to fall as well which is not good for the Aussie.

Gold now breaks through support, and a close below it would be more bearish for this metal. No clear support lies on the daily chart until the 200 DMA as well. A short term bearish bias is definitely viable for gold, but only because USD rises in times of panic or crisis. USD will continue to rise as markets fall, but that will not last over the long term in my opinion. For reasons stated in the other articles I've written, USD will fall again due to the immense amount of money printing we saw earlier this year with inflation rising. Gold also tends to outperform the markets and is less volatile. This pair is definitely a safer place to put your money.

Before I continue, do you see a pattern here? All these pairs are dropping, but why? What all these pairs have in common is their correlation to US equities. When the US market falls, these pairs drop as well. When the market saw its largest bull market in history, so did these pairs.

After creating lower lows on the daily chart, the market continued to sell off hard as soon as it opened this morning. SPX500 is currently hovering on support, but key support lies on the 200 DMA. If price comes down here, we will definitely see a bounce, but the question is: will it be enough for another bull rally? The market historically uses that moving average as a place to long again, but uncertainties with the election, coronavirus vaccine, cases rising again, lack of stimulus, inflation, suffering economy, etc. is aligning for a fearful market. After a season of greed, fear steps in and takes over market sentiment. With September being a month of selling also contributes to bearish sentiment. This is because the months before are usually high-profit periods for investors.

Regardless of the fear taking place, I think this downside movement is healthy for our market. A correction like this was a long time coming, but the bulls wouldn't let it drop. What we're seeing is just a big flush out of stocks so the market can find a balance at 'reasonable' prices for investors to find more attractive. If you plan on investing or putting some money in to the market now, the best thing to do is to dip your toes in. Don't be swayed one way or the other, just be ready to hold whatever you have for the long run. With a small amount of your portfolio in the market or major pairs, you can always long again if prices continues to work against you.

Remember, this is not a time to panic like most sellers. Keep a cool head and trade on! With proper risk management, there is nothing to worry about; especially in the long run. Stay safe and trade safe.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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GBP/USDBearish
XAU/USDBullish
SPX500Bearish

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GBP/USD

GU broke a long term upward trend line on the daily and 4H charts which dipped price below key support. With poor Brexit news and an uncertain US economy, the pair is stuck near a decision point. The pair has been climbing for months after the crash in March, but now faces heavy resistance. Bad retail sales reports on USD is probably what's causing this rally up to resistance, but my overall sentiment remains bearish, and a possible future lower low will come out of this on the 4H chart.

Indices will have a volatile day as the Fed chairman is set to speak at 2:30 EST with FOMC economic projections at 2:00. The SPX still hovers below resistance on the 4H chart after its steep decline starting from 2 weeks ago. Today will provide further insight on the market's direction from now up until the election. The 200 SMA on the 4H chart suggests that price is very uncertain on where to go. It seems to be taking turns stabilizing just under or over the moving average as investors wait for the FOMC projections. I remain bearish for the week unless price breaks over that resistance level around 3430s.

After breaking out of former wedge, gold makes higher lows on the 4H chart and hovers around the 200 SMA. In the long run, gold outperforms the benchmarks, but still dips a little with each market retracement in the short run. Big money and analysts think that this metal has the potential to climb as US economy and USD decline. I remain bullish on this metal and believe that a test at 1990s would be likely in the next few weeks. However, poor US economic data could hinder the stock market which could adversely affect gold. The dips are not as momentous and recoveries outperform indices.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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