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9/23/2021

The precious metal snapped three days of gains and tumbled back down to the support range from $1740s-1760s approximately. Gold is down -.56% on the day going into the opening of the NY session.

Our outlook

Gold will likely rise on the US indices falling, and is usually due to slowing economic growth. Because the Fed called for slower growth and higher inflation, it seems like a good sign for the metal against the USD. However, gold is falling after this news which is confusing. We could be seeing an uncertain reaction to this news before a rise in price; I think gold could be something to consider buying going into next week after the Fed's announcement in FOMC yesterday.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Something to look for is a break under support at the lows of $1743 because that would probably mean that the metal doesn't have enough strength to to come back up. However, if gold can stay above this support level, it might start seeing strength as the USD weakens with inflation. The past several months have not been great for gold, so if price falls under this support, there is clean support around $1700.

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending September 10th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

USD/JPY

Price has been consolidating between 109-111 over the past couple of months, and we recently saw price bounce off the range's support back to the middle of the consolidation zone. Look out for a clear break above or below this structure to catch the new trend, following subsequent retests and rejections.

EUR/USD

Huge moves rejecting the channel's top last week on E/U as price breaks below 1.18 and is now nearing the major key horizontal level 1.17. This level has been seen as major support over the past year or so, so look out for how price reacts to this level once we see price clearly enter. It's likely we could see the trend continue and price reaches the channel's bottom, before potentially retracing and making a move back towards 1.18.

GBP/JPY

Looking at the long-term trend on G/J price has recently touched and rejected off the previous high in this range at 156.0 and is now potentially making its move towards the downside. Currently, we have an ascending channel where price is actually at the bottom, and we're now waiting on clear confirmations whether price will break or respect this channel. If we see price break outside the channel, we'll likely see price continue the long-term trend and head towards the downside.

XAU/USD

Price is once again back at the bullish order block at 1740, where financial institutions will push price towards before a reversal to take out traders who went long early, most likely at 1765. If we see price break below this zone, this area will become a breaker block, an area to go short off following subsequent retests and rejections.

9/6/2021

Gold has been making steady gains for the past several weeks starting mid August after hitting March and April lows. The USD has been struggling ever since the symposium meet-up in Jackson Hole where the Fed indicated they might start to taper this year but not raise interest rates in 2021. The pair is now up against a triple top after recently forming the third top on the 1D chart.

Our outlook

This could be perceived as either bullish or bearish from a technical standpoint, but fundamentals point towards a bullish case for gold. The pair has been performing well for various reasons like the weakening dollar sentiment in the short term while COT reports show us that long position futures contracts have increased as well as the overall liquidity in the gold market since net positions are steadily rising. Last week, gold also broke above the 200 DMA and was able to remain above it all week. I think we could be looking at a good week for the gold longs as interest and bullishness continues to go up.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Gold on the 1D chart is up against major resistance at what is now a triple top, a level that the metal hasn't been able to break above since June. If price rejects this level and begins to turn downward, gold is still in a good spot. Heavy support also lies a little below at the 200 DMA which is in the $1800-1810s range. If price does end up breaking above the triple top this week, we could expect to see a higher run to possibly the $1850s range where there is the first sign of clear resistance on this timeframe.

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending September 10th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPNZD & XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Price has closed off for the week in the bearish order block just underneath 1.19, and we're now waiting on further moves to take place, to establish whether price will either respect this zone and reverse or continue breaking higher from the descending channel it has just broken out of. Most retailers by this point have been stopped out who went short at the channel's top and are likely going to go long now; however financial institutions usually reverse once more and head back towards the original position.

GBP/USD

Price is back once again at this 1.388 key horizontal level which has been seen as clear support and resistance over the past couple of weeks. I made a deep dive on this pair as price was forming the descending triangle, and now that price completed that pattern move, price is now once again back at this level and just under its resistance. If price manages to break higher, we should wait for a confirmation of a retest before going long.

GBP/NZD

Over the past couple of months, price has been consolidating around this breaker block between 1.96 - 1.98 and we're finally beginning to see a break out of this zone. Price is currently heading towards the previous resistance and new support level from the ascending triangle at 1.92, and liquidity is likely pulling price towards this level. There is an order below where price will likely head to swell to stop out retailers who will go long early before potentially reversing.

XAU/USD

Price has closed off for the week just below the resistance in this consolidation zone I've been pointing out between 1800-1835. We're now waiting on clear confirmations whether price will either respect of break this level and if we see a break of this trend. If price closes above 1835, we'll likely see price head higher towards the liquidity void ant around 1890. If price does in fact respect this level and go below, we'll likely see further consolidation on this pair.

8/31/2021

As the New York trading session ends, gold sits in the green for the day above a key technical indicator that is it's 200-day moving average, an indicator that suggests changes in momentum to the up or downside. In this case, gold's price broke above the 200 DMA and closed right on it yesterday. Currently, gold is above that moving average and could end the day like that.

Our outlook

The Fed said that they would begin tapering, but they didn't know when exactly. They gave us an idea that the reduction of bond-buying may happen late this year, but it still gives no insight on whether they will start hiking interest rates. I think gold and the greenback will go back and forth between investor demand until we get a clearer picture of what's going on, so the best way to gauge gold's performance could probably be on a week-to-week basis. This week looks more promising for the precious metal as the Jackson Hole Symposium caused no big demand spike for the US dollar. Plus, if gold can close above the 200 DMA, we could be in for a solid week for gold.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Today's candle suggests that we could see some rejection of the lows on this stair-like pattern gold has been making since mid August. The blue line is gold's 50 DMA while the red is the 200 DMA; a death cross did happen, but price did just break above the 200 which is a bullish sign. If price were to break higher, it would likely test the double top around $1831.

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending September 3rd, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at NZDCHF, GBPJPY, GBPNZD & XAUUSD.

NZD/CHF

Price is now sitting at the descending channel's top and traders are likely waiting on confirmation of either a rejection for a reversal towards the bottom, or price to break out, retest and continue heading higher. There is mixed retail sentiment at the moment, with 57% traders short currently, it's likely we could see price head higher to stop out traders early.

GBP/JPY

Price is currently consolidating near the channel's bottom and traders are now waiting on confirmations where price could be heading next. A close below the bottom could signify price possibly heading lower, and if price continues to stay inside the channel it's likely we could see price head towards the top in the long run.

GBP/NZD

Price is looking like it's going to exit the bullish breaker block and possibly head back down towards the key horizontal level around 1.92. If price does make a clear close outside the block, then this could likely happen. If price continues to stay inside, we could potentially see price make the next high again, and going long from this zone wouldn't be a bad idea.

XAU/USD

Price is currently back inside the same zone we saw consolidation back in July between 1800 and 1835. A clear break above this level would suggest price is heading higher and if price does close below 1800, we could see price head back inside the channel again.

8/24/2021

Gold gained early in the week as the dollar struggled with the anticipation of the USD news set to come out Thursday and Friday. Gold has been able to hold itself above the $1800 mark for two days so far as the dollar slips 0.81% from the highs.

Our outlook

Gold's performance will likely depend on interest rates remaining low, higher inflation, and a slowing economy. In the long term, I think inflation will probably help gold's price out, but I also don't think the US will struggle with the economy. Also, the Fed goes back and forth on tapering which means that they have no idea when to loosen their bond buying for now. Gold also had a major break above a falling trend line from January of this year which at least points towards a potential run to the upside in the short term.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Gold on the 1D chart breaks and closes above a long term falling trend line and stays above the $1800 for the second day. Now price has to test its 200 DMA to see if it can push higher or go into consolidation for a little while.

A look at the 4H chart will help us spot support if price falls under $1800. The $1795 mark is a big level of support for the metal should momentum start to fade after the impressive run.

8/16/2021

Gold continues to push higher amid the concerns of the delta variant and investors try to turn to the safe haven asset. China and Australia are struggling with virus outbreaks and shutdowns as economists fear another wave of potential lockdowns around the world.

Our outlook

I have been bullish gold for months now although the performance hasn't been great overall. Shutdowns are hard on a country's economy which is what will be the bullish catalyst in the short term. However, I think gold will be worth much more in the longer term as inflation keeps rising and interest rates remain low. Although lockdowns will help gold rise, I don't think that will happen again in the US as over 50% of citizens are vaccinated. So, the long term behavior is more important to me right now. I think that gold could definitely climb back to $2,000 in a year. In the short term, here is what I see:

Trade Setups

$1,789 is a clear resistance level on the 1D chart, so price will likely test that level and have the potential to retrace after four days of green. A retrace could send price down to support around $1,750, while a push above resistance could take price up to the falling trend around $1,802. Something to watch is that the 50-day has crossed back under the 200-day moving average which signals a death cross, a bearish technical signal. A triple top at $1,830 will possibly be the biggest resistance level to cross above for the metal.

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending August 20th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPNZD, EURAUD & XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

A bearish flag pattern has formed on E/U after a descending channel has formed following an impulsive selloff in mid-June. Price has recently hit the channel's bottom and is now more than halfway heading towards the channel's top. We have a bearish order block at 1.187, where we could likely see a reversal towards the bottom from this zone. Look out for price action confirmations once price does reach this zone, look out for rejections before going short.

GBP/NZD

Price has been consolidating around and within this bullish breaker block zone for months now, and no significant move has yet to be made. Price did form a medium-term ascending channel where it's currently at the bottom, and I'm now waiting on price action confirmations of a rejection and a move potentially to the upside. If price breaks this formation and goes lower, it's likely we could see a new trend form, or price may go to retest previous horizontal levels such as 1.92 or potentially collect orders from OB's lower.

EUR/AUD

Price has recently broken out of the short-term ascending channel and is potentially forming a new descending channel if price fails to go higher than 1.61, forming the new lower high. Price has been moving pretty slowly in this market, and no breakthroughs have happened. 1.585 is a pivotal level to watch how price reacts; a break lower suggests we could retest 1.568, whereas if price holds this level as support, price is likely to stay above, and long positions could be a good idea.

XAU/USD

Gold made a huge move in the past week, dropping more than 5% and then retracing the entire move plus more by Friday. Price has closed off for the week just above the channel's top, and in-between two horizontal levels, I've had my eyes on 1765 and 1795. Look out how price reacts to this current level to decide whether to go long or short. If price stays above the channel's top, we could likely see price head higher towards and above 1795, whereas if price comes back inside the channel, it's likely we could see some consolidation in the zone at 1740.

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending August 13th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDCHF & XAUUSD.

GBP/USD

Price is currently consolidating around this 1.387 zone which was seen as resistance in mid-July and now as new support in early August. If price continues to hold, we'll likely see price head towards the trendline once more before we eventually see a break. However, a break below this zone suggests continued downside movement, and an entry following a retest with continued bearish confirmations would be ideal. Remember, we did recently see a break of the long-term ascending channel, and hence we could be forming a new long-term descending channel.

USD/JPY

Following the better-than-expected NFP news on Friday, we're seeing price potentially break out of this medium-term descending channel which was recently formed following the break of the long-term ascending channel. If price continues to stay above the channel's top, look out for a clear break, retest then enter with clear price action confirmations of a continued bullish move.

NZD/CHF

Similarly to U/J, price is at the top of this descending channel in the long-term bullish flag pattern. If price rejects this level and reverses towards the downside, a move to previous lows at 0.63 is expected, potentially 0.62 if we see further bearish confirmations. However, if we see price break out of this channel, we could likely begin to see price complete the flag pattern and head to new highs. An entry following a retest with continued bullish confirmations would be ideal at the channel's top.

XAU/USD

Following Friday's NFP event, where we saw a huge improvement in US jobs, price did in fact fall 2.2%. Price has again gone underneath the long-term channel's top and is hovering around a key horizontal level at 1765. If price uses this level as support, we could see price reach lows at the bullish order block at around 1740; however, if price breaks this zone, we could see it tumble towards the psychological 1700 level. We could likely see further downwards pressure as Fed tapering bets grow following this strong NFP report.

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