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10/26/2021

A string of articles have come out recently that will make you consider crypto and the potential around the emerging industry. Here are a few article headlines that I will summarize and explain why this is really important to the market as a whole.

Tesla May Restart Crypto Transactions Again

Several months ago, Tesla decided to stop bitcoin transactions because of environmental reasons. However, the EV and space exploration founder is a firm believer in the future of crypto and has said that he would continue transactions should the amount of energy from mining start to make less of an environmental impact and become cleaner and more efficient.

Citi Starts Coverage of Coinbase With $415 Price Target, Says ‘Buy Crypto’s General Store’

More implied volatility could be leaning toward the bullish side of crypto as Citi gives Coinbase a price target of $415. They describe Coinbase as the hub for crypto investing that they call crypto's "general store". Although the company's price is very correlated with the performance of crypto, it also provides a service for those investors looking to invest in more than a coin. The sentiment Citi has around Coinbase, therefore, is staunchly correlated to the sentiment they have on crypto as a market. A $415 PT is also a statement towards further gains from bitcoin and other major altcoins.

Bakkt's stock surges on Mastercard, Fiserv deal to broaden use of crypto in payments

BKKT, previously known as VIH, completed its merger this quarter and is now making a deal with Mastercard to work out a simple way to make crypto transactions. Not only is money and technology flowing into this industry, but major institutions and investors are gearing for mass adoption. Bakkt is one of the potential major competitors against Coinbase as it expects to have about 30 million users on their platform in the coming years. More competition, money, technology, adoption and attention is going into this space which can only mean one thing: the market will just keep getting bigger.

Whether it's stocks or individual coins to invest in, I think it's imperative to look more into this space if you are a speculative investor trying to find that once-in-a-while opportunity that could potentially stack your portfolio.

10/25/2021

Gold and crypto pairs have been on a tear recently due to several factors and one of them being inflation. Some analysts are calling for a prolonged run in demand for the precious metal and a $3000 per oz price in under a year.

Our outlook

I think that gold has been due for a run to the upside for some time, but price kept getting shut down by mixed economic sentiment and a chugging stock market. The dollar gained lots of demand too when things became very uncertain in the past couple months. Now, the Fed is more clear about when they will taper and raise rates which is starting to give the green light for most gold investors.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Price coming up for a second test on resistance around $1812 on the 1D chart. It still seems bullish for the metal now that the pair still sits above the 50 and 200-day moving average. This staircase-like move from the lows of the $1720s suggests another move higher from $1812 to the next resistance level around $1830s.

10/22/2021

Although bitcoin is pulling back from its all-time highs above $66K, there is sill an argument for the coin's potential that could help the bulls in the not-so-long-term. BTCUSD is down 1.89% on the day today after a 50% rise in price for the month of October.

Our outlook

The argument for bitcoin is that the new fund (NYSE: BITO) will attract tens of billions of dollars from investment. The crypto market is still in its early stages of growth now that money has only been heavily flowing into this industry within the past couple years. And now, with this new ETF, investors can indirectly invest in crypto without taking on the large risk from direct investment in the coins. This will also bring around a lot more attention to the crypto market as institutions will likely take stakes in a tradable fund on the NYSE.

Trade Setups

BTC/USD

Price is pulling back for the first time in several days after a monster run to new highs above $66,000. On the 1D chart, the crypto could find mild support at $57,000 and $52,000 if price continues to fall. If today's candle can close above the $58,923 level, it would be a good sign that price might have a bottom at that point.

10/21/2021

UC has been stuck in a downtrend for over a month now as the loonie continues to gain more demand over the USD. Good economic numbers on both sides is making it difficult for USD to prevail over CAD although Canada's economy is benefitting from the high demand in oil prices in which the USD is not.

Our outlook

The downtrend looks too strong for a turnaround in momentum, but that is not to say that we might still see a bounce on a significant level of support that the pair is currently on. Looking at technicals, the pair has potential although inflationary fears still runs through the US economy. So, short term, I think the pair has potential to move to the upside, but it will be difficult for the pair to further this momentum with the current situation in the US.

Trade Setups

USDCAD

UC touching support around 1.23000 with the latest candle rejecting the lows with a long wick on the downside. If price can bounce from here, it may test resistance around 1.24200 which is now a strong level after the support zone was broken some days ago. A potential double bottom on this chart would be bullish, however, a break under this support could mean a move to 1.22486.

10/19/2021

Another great week for this value coin is taking price closer and closer to ATH around $65,000, as investors eye the last psychological level of resistance in the way. A new crypto fund debuted on the NYSE this morning which was the first traded fund on this exchange marking this event as a big step for the crypto community.

Our outlook

Whether we support or not, more money and technology continue to get piled into this industry, and the best minds in tech are working to improve security, business, transactions, etc. In just the month of October, bitcoin has climbed over 50% and 115% from July when it hit the lows. I think it's very possible we see another test at the all-time highs in the next few days to week, judging purely off this recent surge in momentum.

Trade Setups

BTCUSD

Price made a higher high on the 1D chart and inches slightly higher towards ATH at $65K. Because of the already-big move, support is way below around $53,000, but momentum suggests that a move to the $65,000 is more likely than a 15% decline. If price can break this major level of resistance, we may see an additional leg higher with increased momentum on the break.

10/18/2021

The past week was very good to the kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced interest rate raises and investors are pricing in another 25 basis point hike making a 50 bp move seem more likely according to SeekingAlpha. CPI ran higher than expected this quarter at 2.2% with the expected 1.5%.

Our outlook

A higher CPI could also mean that it is even more likely that the RBNZ will go for a bigger rate hike next year. Because of this, we're already seeing the pair getting this news priced in for what could happen. Although the kiwi had an aggressive move this past week, it still looks strong across the board. And against the Canadian loonie, it looks relatively undervalued.

Trade Setups

NZDCAD

NZDCAD had a strong four trading days and looks to be continuing the move at the beginning of this week. Price is nearing resistance around 0.88200s which is also paired with the 50-day moving average on the 1D chart. Clean support lies below around 0.86200s. If momentum keeps up, we could see a test on the resistance level above which is about a sixth of a percent move away.

10/15/2021

NZDJPY skyrockets this morning 1.16% on the trading day moving more in a week than it has in several months. This recent jump in buying came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced that they will raise rates four times in 2022 while Japan has yet to declare an interest hike.

Our outlook

Although price has jumped over 4% in the past week, there is still potential for the pair to continue making gains. We have been expecting an announcement like this since the summer time when the RBNZ was talking about sooner-than-expected hikes more so than most countries' national banks. The problem now is to watch out for FOMO buying here since price has risen at a much higher rate than expected. I definitely think price can continue to run, but I think we have to start expecting a retrace here soon.

Trade Setups

NZDJPY

NJ tears above all resistance and hits a high for the year of this strong fundamental news. Price broke resistance at 80.193, and a close above this level will be promising that for the bullish investors. A close above this level will likely mean more stability up at this price as breaking a yearly high could serve as very clean support.

10/14/2021

SPX500 climbed nearly 1% today after earnings beats in the bank sector and jobless claims came in under the expectations at only 293K. The Fed also said that they may start to taper as early as November now which would mean a decrease in the hundred-something billion dollars in asset purchases each month.

Our outlook

Good economic news from the past two weeks has relieved some of the pressure the markets have experienced from inflation fears to NFP. On a technical basis, however, the index just broke out of a falling channel and has come back from the lows of last week. This is good news for investors who have been worried about a continued stretch to the downside, so we may start to see some more buying to finish out the week.

Trade Setups

SPX500

SPX500 made a clear break out of a falling trend line on the 1D chart and is nearing resistance at the 50 DMA. A close above this falling trend line will be good for the index as it would indicate a larger move to the upside. Today's 1% move in the morning is a good sign already showing us that there is some momentum here. If price can't break above, we may see a retrace to around $4370.

10/12/2021

Last week, this precious metal hit as high as $1780 and ranged to the lows around the $1750s. But overall, the price has been relatively stagnant from a week ago, but last week's COT report showed us that big money could be starting to buy again.

Our outlook

With an increase in the amount of long contracts getting bought up shows that institutions could be gearing for a move in gold's price to the upside as inflationary fears return to the US. The Fed is likely not going to raise rates despite these concerns which is nothing but good news for gold. We're also seeing a decrease in the number of short positions, so shorts and longs aren't going up at the same time in the latest COT data. I think this week could have the potential to push price up to the $1780s again.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

On the 1D chart, price is coming up to test a significant resistance level at $1780 where the pair has tested twice before. The 50 DMA is also in the way, but a strong up day could send price above. Support lies in the $1740-50s giving this consolidation range about a 40 point spread between heavy support and resistance.

10/11/2021

Last Friday, Canada saw a huge increase in the number of jobs added with a gain of 157K new jobs and only 59.5K were expected this month. In the US, only 194K were added with the expectation of 490K. Although NFP missed, the US still saw a fall in unemployment rate which made investor sentiment mixed.

Our outlook

This news has probably turned the pair bearish with a favorable loonie over the USD. There is still too much uncertainty in the US that has turned this pair volatile over jobs news. However, the USD is usually stronger in these types of scenarios, and the DXY (dollar index) had the opposite behavior on the 1D chart as price rose to a 2 year high. With this kind of uncertainty, this sell off might be setting us up for a decent long entry on this USDCAD pair.

Trade Setups

USDCAD

USD falls on weakness against the loonie after good jobs numbers in Canada and mixed sentiment in the USD. The pair is currently on support around 1.24444 once it broke under a rising trend line on the 1D chart. Price crossed under its 200 DMA as well which could prove to be bearish this week. We are looking at price on clean support, so a break under would cause more momentum to the downside, and a bounce could lead to a test around 1.25452.

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