Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF, XAUUSD (22-27 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 27th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF & XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Looking at the chart above, we can see this pair is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 1.1900. Price is travelling along the ascending trendline nicely, all presenting bullish opportunities. If we do see a break of this resistance, this could open up targets such as 1.21. Additionally, reputable sources such as Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs & Credit Agricole are all expecting EURUSD to pick up bullish momentum and are all looking for targets around 1.20, 1.22, and 1.25. However, looking at a seller's perspective, price has now reached a weekly descending channel's resistance, and with all the recent Coronavirus vaccine news, the Eurozone is expected to recover first before the US, leading to big money fleeing the dollar and building positions in EUR. This could potentially cause considerable drops in this pair, opening up targets at 1.18 or lower.

AUD/USD

Looking at this pair, price formed an ascending triangle pattern and broke out in the reverse direction, to the upside. Continuing from last week's analysis on this pair, price is consolidating between these two levels, holding support at 0.722 and resistance at 0.733. I am looking for a continued bullish move, expecting price to break through the resistance and completing this pattern. As we know, Credit Suisse is long on AUD/USD currently with entries around 0.72, and looking for targets around 0.75; if we see a break of that resistance, we could easily hop on this train and potentially catch many pips. Additionally, as we know, there is a lot of positive vaccine news rolling out, causing enormous strength in the USD. Knowing this, more should be coming up, like EUA approvals, funding approvals, and much more; we could see this pair shoot up easily!

AUD/CHF

This pair is now forming a descending channel after a sharp bullish impulse. Last week price has closed at the resistance of this channel; we're still yet to see a second or third clear touch of the support. This suggests possible short-term bearish positions we could place and wait until price does form precise touches, then we could hold long positions until we see price complete this pattern, of course after continued successive price action confirmations of this. If, however, we see a breakout on this pair without any further downside moves, we could look to go long once we see a clear retest and rejection of this resistance trend line. Additionally, if we see price break this resistance, zooming out on the Daily chart, we can see a long-term level acting as resistance for a while; if we do see price break this level, this could open up levels as 0.683 and 0.70.

XAU/USD

We have a clear descending triangle pattern visible on this pair and price currently holding at the 1860 support. As expected last week, more positive vaccine news came out with the pharmaceutical company Moderna at 94.5% effectiveness, and the next day Pfizer and BioNTech coming out with a 95% effective vaccine. This is unquestionably huge for the currency; we could finally see life go back to normal and an "escape" out of this pandemic. Private sources shared that Pfizer is in regular communications with Biden's Covid team. I expect this pair to certainly shoot down and, at the same time, complete this pattern. Once we see price break this support, this opens up targets at previous monthly levels such as 1750, 1560, and 1440.

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DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPJPY, AUDUSD, EURCAD, XAUUSD (15-20 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 20th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPJPY, AUDUSD, EURCAD & XAUUSD.

GBP/JPY

Looking at the overall trend in this market, price is currently travelling in a healthy ascending channel. Looking closely, price has formed an ascending triangle pattern just above the support of the channel. Price has failed twice to break through the resistance at 137.650; however, last week, we finally saw a successful break to the upside, and price has now closed off for the week at the retest of that same resistance level. I am now looking out for successful rejections to this level, acting as new support, and then I will be going long targeting the previous higher high at 142.000 and possibly the resistance of this channel at 146.000. These are obviously quite far away from the current price, however with positive Coronavirus vaccine news coming out (and expected to come out over the next couple of weeks), we could easily see price shoot straight up to these levels.

AUD/USD

Looking at this market, we have got a downtrend formed; price is forming lower highs and lower lows. However, as you can see, it has been struggling to make clear lower lows. Price has been failing to break through the support level at 0.7020, and this has formed a much clearer descending triangle pattern instead. With this pattern, I usually expect a continued downwards move; however, we have seen a break to the upside. After the initial breakout, price has retested to the major 0.7220 level, which was seen multiple times as clear support or resistance. Price retested, treated this level as clear support, and is now bouncing off and making a continued upwards move. It is not too late to enter on this pair, ideally would be around 0.7230; we could still see this level being met as we open next week. Extended fundamental analysis will be heard in the YouTube video; click the pink button at the top of this article.

EUR/CAD

Price has been travelling in this descending channel for a while now, forming successive lower highs and lower lows. Price is now approaching this channel's resistance, so there is still some potential bullish positions that could be taken before the short of catching the next swing of the trade. This resistance also matches up nicely with the 78.6% Fib retracement level, and a short position at 1.560 after successful price action confirmations of a continued downwards movement would be an ideal entry. I am looking to target the area around the 0.0% Fib level, for a completed channel move. VIP members will be informed if I take this trade.

XAU/USD

Last week I expected a bullish move on this pair, following the likely results of the elections being a Biden win. However, on Monday morning, we had absolutely fantastic news that the pharmaceutical company Pfizer announced positive results for a Coronavirus vaccine, which was "90% effective". This caused completely enormous strength in all currencies, causing price to drop back into this descending triangle pattern. Even Goldman Sachs said, "the vaccine is a more important development for the economy and markets than prospective policies of a Biden administration". I am looking to go short on this pair at around the 1898-1902 area once there are clear rejections to the trend line. There should be more upcoming (most likely to be positive) vaccine news, so I expect this pair to absolutely shoot down.

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DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVED VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDCAD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (08-13 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 13th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCAD, GBPUSD, GBJPY & XAUUSD.

USD/CAD

Looking at the overall trend in this market, price has formed a descending triangle pattern with support at a long-term horizontal level, which is 1.3030. Price closed for the week just at this level, and looking closely at the candles, we can see many candles with long wicks to the upside, suggesting sellers could not take control of the market. With the US election results coming up and a Biden victory is looking likely, I'm expecting the USD currency to weaken, and therefore this also matches up with this technical analysis.

GBP/USD

We have been watching this pair for a while now; price has finally broken the 1.30 resistance favorably and is currently at 1.3150. This is the next resistance bulls must break in order to fulfill the ascending channel visible. Price closed for the week with an indecision Doji candle, suggesting we may see some pullbacks before price can successfully make this move. However, with the possible USD weakness coming in due to the Biden victory, we may see price make this move instantly once the results are officially announced.

GBP/JPY

Price is in this long-term ascending channel and currently holding near the support of the channel. Price has been struggling to break through the 137.600 level; this now creates an ascending triangle pattern on this pair as price is steadily making it's move to the upside but is not breaking through the resistance. Eventually, this will lead to the apex point and cause a burst of hopefully the upside. Look out for price action confirmations of a rejection to the trendline to get involved early or wait for price to break the resistance and enter on the retest successfully.

XAU/USD

Price was forming a descending triangle pattern on this pair; however, with the US elections coming to an end and a Biden victory looking likely, the USD began to weaken, causing price to break to the upside (which is entirely normal and can happen in this pattern) and break the trend and recent high. I expect this move to continue and price to completely break every high and reach recent monthly highs at 2050.00.

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DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVED VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, XAUUSD (01-06 November 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 6th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF & XAUUSD.

AUDUSD

Price has formed a descending triangle pattern, with support at 0.702, which back in June, this same level was seen as resistance. Price is currently at that support level; if we see a break of this support, I will be looking out for a retest of the 0.702 level, followed by price action confirmations of a continued rejection before going short on this pair with a target to lower support levels at 0.68.

GBPJPY

This pair has been on my watchlist for a while now as price has been moving in this ascending channel forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is back at the channel support and currently showing rejection with price action closing off the week with a hammer candle at the trend line, looking to catch a move above previous highs at 143.000.

GBPCHF

Bullish flag pattern visible on this pair, I already went long at 1.174 at the channel's support, which reached 170 pips profit before being closed at the modified stop loss. Price is currently near the channel's resistance once again, and I would look to possibly re-enter once price breaks out and shows successive rejections to the channel for a completed pattern move.

XAUUSD

Price currently forming a descending triangle pattern with support at 1860.00. Price is currently nearing the support level, I will be looking out for a clear break and retest of that support level, treating it as new resistance, with price action confirmation of a continued bearish move. With the elections coming up, this setup could easily become invalid and there will definitely be a lot of volatility coming up. If this setup stays valid, I will look for targets at previous monthly horizontal levels at 1760.00.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPAUD, NZDUSD, GBPCHF, XAUUSD (18-23 October 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending October 23rd, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPAUD, NZDUSD, GBPCHF & XAUUSD.

GBP/AUD

Price has formed an ascending triangle pattern on this pair and currently near the resistance level at 1.828. Waiting for price to either reach the trend line, showing successive rejections and then go long OR looking for price to breakout from the resistance, retest that same resistance level, treating it as support, and then going long for a completed pattern move.

NZD/USD

Bearish flag pattern visible on this pair. We could still see a third touch of the resistive trendline in the channel, which would also meet the 61.8 and possibly the 71.0 fib retracement level. Once we see successive rejections in that zone, only then I would possibly go short. However, we could see price breakout right away without the third touch; if we see price break out of this channel to the downside, I would wait for a retest and then a rejection before going short.

GBP/CHF

Bullish flag pattern formed on this pair, currently seeing price bouncing around the same levels and consolidating. Looking to go long once we see price reach and reject the channel's support at 1.175 for a completed pattern move.

XAU/USD

Price has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on this pair and is now nearing the pattern's apex point, suggesting we could see this pattern break this week. As always, wait for price to breakout and then retest the trendline, showing successive continued rejection before taking the desired position. With all US news coming up over the next couple of weeks, predicting the direction could be dangerous; that is why you should watch out for explicit price action confirmations before taking any positions on this pair.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURGBP, XAUUSD (04-09 October 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending October 9th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURGBP & XAUUSD.

USD/CHF

Two weeks ago, we saw price form the symmetrical triangle pattern, and we were waiting on the breakout to the upside as price was failing to create new lows in this descending trend. We now have the break to the upside, and we can see previous resistance is now acting as new support after breaking the trend. I expect price to continue moving to the upside and reach previous highs at 0.935, where we saw price act as support before breaking.

GBP/USD

We can see price is travelling in this ascending trend after the Covid-19 crash. We have recently seen the touch of channel support, rejection, and now a move off the support. Currently, we see some resistance form at 1.298. Once we see price break past this level, we can take more long positions as it is a confirmation of a continued bullish move to the upside.

EUR/GBP

Price is currently travelling in a long-term uptrend, we saw a touch of the channel's resistance, and now we are in a short-term descending channel. I expect price to continue this bearish move until price reaches the long-term channel's support before we see another bullish move up to 0.93.

XAU/USD

We had a strong descending triangle pattern form with price breaking out to the downside with support at 1914. Last week price had retested that support, and now we are waiting on clear price action confirmations at this level whether we see a rejection of previous support, acting as new resistance and a continued bearish move OR if we see bulls picking strength back up, especially considering the recent crazy US news. This week will be very interesting for Gold. Definitely keep positions smaller than usual as volatility will pick up.

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Late last night, news came out that President Trump tested positive for COVID. He began taking quarantine measures immediately, and soon after, futures tumbled by over 1% in a matter of minutes. Today's choppiness tells us something about what direction the market will head in the short term.

The best way to prepare for what is about to happen is by managing risk. Although there is a lot of uncertainty, it does not mean that we should be taking big bets on either direction. If you plan on preserving your capital, the best way to trade is through small lots relative to your account. There's no way to predict what can happen, and patience is required to stick with whatever trade is going on.

Here's what the market choppiness is telling us:

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Taking a look on the hourly chart with nothing drawn, you can see that not much has happened in the passed few days direction-wise. If you longed or shorted on the 29th of last month, you'd be near breakeven had you stayed in. This is purely a traders' market in the short term which means the market cannot decide on a direction.

When price looks uncertain, that's usually an indicator that a big move is on the horizon. With today's additional choppiness, we have to consider a couple of factors:
1.) Trump's positive test will mean a delay in presidential debates, causing further uncertainty on who is going to pull away in the election.
2.) Unemployment drops to 7% which is the lowest we've seen since March. This is a good sign of economic recovery.
3.) Investors and analysts have been saying for a while that the economy and the market are at a disconnect, so economic news doesn't really matter.
4.) Biden tests negative.
5.) Risk-off sentiment increases.

There's too much going on right now to gauge what is good or bad news, and what news outweighs other news. The overall theory I have is that the market will have to decide which direction it wants to move. And I personally think that starting today or next week, the market will be headed lower with Trump's health in mind. If he continues to have no symptoms, things will likely float upward. But in the meantime, it's too soon to know. Next week will definitely be a decision point.

Conclusion

In our community, we're encouraging traders to keep lot sizes small. We also mention that it is time to be patient with each trade.

SPX500 4H chart

Right now, it looks like a potential head and shoulders pattern in the making on the 4H chart as price fluctuates up and down. At the time of writing this, we're an hour to close, and price is moving heavy in either direction. This is why small lots are important. Whether you are long, short or in between, remember to keep an eye out for price movements and behaviors in the week to come as well as some heavy volatility.
Hope everyone is trading safely!


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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EUR/USDShort setup
XAU/USDShort and long setup
SPX500Short setup

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EUR/USD

EU did come up to resistance and is seeing some pressure, but it is now coming up for a retest. If price makes a higher high, the 200 SMA on 4H chart may be the next level of resistance. However, if the 4H candles can't get passed recent highs around 1.17500, short sentiment stands. Looking at the daily chart, price has clean support around 1.14170s which looks like a potential TP point if the daily candles don't break above resistance in the next few days.

Gold

Gold looks exactly the same as EU, so I wanted to include that short setup we see on the daily at 1900-1910. It looks like price won't maintain price above 1900 for today and that more downside is yet to come. As the market remains under pressure, so does this metal. That level could be something to consider as investors like price breaking 1900 again. If gold can hit 1900 and close above, I see more upside. The US market's volatility will reflect in gold as well, so we are expecting hard price swings in either direction.

SPX500

After a hard runup, the 200 SMA on the 4H showed solid resistance. At some point, the market had to take a breather after talks of another stimulus bill seems more possible. This recent rally on the 4H may be a fake-out for the bulls as market confidence is still low. I remain bearish as long as price stays under the 200 DMA and expect further moves down as the market is priced close to where it opened in last night's futures.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPJPY, NZDJPY, XAUUSD, GBPUSD (27-02 October 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending October 2nd, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPJPY, NZDJPY, XAUUSD & GBPUSD.

GBP/JPY

Looking at the daily chart, we can see price has been moving in an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows. Looking back to last weeks movements, we can see price has broken through the original channel (dark) but is still inside another possible channel (grey), which still classes as valid as it has kept above the previous low. Looking for possible rejection of the current zone and looking for a move past previous highs above 144.000.

NZD/JPY

Looking at this daily chart, price is moving in a sideways consolidation zone. Price isn't able to break the trend to form either new highs or lows. Price is currently at the support level of this ranging market. Looking at the red highlighted circle, we saw price form a bullish hammer candle followed by a shooting star before reversing and making a move to the upside. We currently have the same formation showing, suggesting a possible repeated move to the upside again.

XAU/USD

Gold dumped and completed the symmetrical triangle break to the downside. It will be interesting to see how price reacts to this level it is currently at, whether we see a continued downwards move to lower supports or if we see a continued bullish move to 2000+.

GBP/USD

Similarly to GJ, we can see this market moving in a clear ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows successfully. Price is now in my interest zone at 1.273; I'm now expecting a move to the upside, continuing this channel and holding over the long-term. We are currently seeing 3 Doji candles; however, I am still expecting price to increase.

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EUR/USDBearish
GBP/USDBearish
AUD/NZDBearish
XAU/USDBullish
SPX500Bearish

EU struggles to pass 1.2000s as US markets fall from overvalued prices in the stock market. The pair is back in a support zone showing that price wants to go lower. A break in that support zone (which is a common pattern we see in a couple other pairs) would be a sign that we are in for continued downtrend.

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GU comes back for a second test on support without making a promising rally on the daily chart. GU has very strong support on the daily chart with June support and the 200 DMA. A bounce would seem likely, however, a break would be very bearish for the pair that's been running up since March.

AUDNZD falls to another low as it comes up to resistance. Key support is not very clear on the daily chart except for the 200 DMA way down at around 1.6000s. Gold continues to fall as well which is not good for the Aussie.

Gold now breaks through support, and a close below it would be more bearish for this metal. No clear support lies on the daily chart until the 200 DMA as well. A short term bearish bias is definitely viable for gold, but only because USD rises in times of panic or crisis. USD will continue to rise as markets fall, but that will not last over the long term in my opinion. For reasons stated in the other articles I've written, USD will fall again due to the immense amount of money printing we saw earlier this year with inflation rising. Gold also tends to outperform the markets and is less volatile. This pair is definitely a safer place to put your money.

Before I continue, do you see a pattern here? All these pairs are dropping, but why? What all these pairs have in common is their correlation to US equities. When the US market falls, these pairs drop as well. When the market saw its largest bull market in history, so did these pairs.

After creating lower lows on the daily chart, the market continued to sell off hard as soon as it opened this morning. SPX500 is currently hovering on support, but key support lies on the 200 DMA. If price comes down here, we will definitely see a bounce, but the question is: will it be enough for another bull rally? The market historically uses that moving average as a place to long again, but uncertainties with the election, coronavirus vaccine, cases rising again, lack of stimulus, inflation, suffering economy, etc. is aligning for a fearful market. After a season of greed, fear steps in and takes over market sentiment. With September being a month of selling also contributes to bearish sentiment. This is because the months before are usually high-profit periods for investors.

Regardless of the fear taking place, I think this downside movement is healthy for our market. A correction like this was a long time coming, but the bulls wouldn't let it drop. What we're seeing is just a big flush out of stocks so the market can find a balance at 'reasonable' prices for investors to find more attractive. If you plan on investing or putting some money in to the market now, the best thing to do is to dip your toes in. Don't be swayed one way or the other, just be ready to hold whatever you have for the long run. With a small amount of your portfolio in the market or major pairs, you can always long again if prices continues to work against you.

Remember, this is not a time to panic like most sellers. Keep a cool head and trade on! With proper risk management, there is nothing to worry about; especially in the long run. Stay safe and trade safe.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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