Weekly Forex Forecast for USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (01-05 March 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending March 5th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

USDJPY

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen price shift trends from a downtrend to an uptrend, and price is now channelling to the upside, breaking highs from the previous channel. Zooming into price action from last week, we can see price break through the EQH at 106.2; this area is marked as retailer's resistance, where most traders would have gone short for the double top. As anticipated, price shot to the upside, taking out their trades, and I am now expecting price to bounce off the channel's top and head to the downside.

EURUSD

I have got mixed bias on EU at the moment because, looking at this chart from a buyer's POV, price is currently at the channel's bottom, and we are now looking for price action confirmations of a bullish reversal and looking to get in to continue the channel. On the other hand, a seller would point out the overall bearish flag chart pattern that has now gotten the third touch of the channel's top and is already at its bottom. Also, price recently broke the EQH at 1.215 - 1.218 from the double top formed, where retailers would have stopped out on their short positions. Sellers would've already been in this trade from 1.222 and are most likely looking to continue holding the trade to at least 1.195.

GBPJPY

I have been looking at GJ for a while and have been pointing out this ascending channel since the initial Covid-19 crash back in March 2020. Price has now reached an enormous bull's target of 150.0 last week and has finally touched the channel's top. This EQH is a great level where retailers would now be looking to go short and ride the train back towards the channel's bottom. However, I believe price will continue to consolidate around this level for a while and possibly even reach new highs once there is enough liquidity for banks to manipulate the price to take out those trades. GJ will head down to around 144.0 at least, but it is more of a medium-term target.

XAUUSD

Looking at Gold, we have got the long-term bullish flag pattern I am still waiting to complete, and I still believe it will in the long-run. Currently, price has just broken through an EQL at 1762 where (on the H4 timeframe) is much clearer for a double bottom. Retailers would have been going long at around 1760, and we saw the enormous bearish move last Friday because there was a lot of liquidity around its current price. Most traders had their stop losses here, and of course banks would take advantage and push price lower. Retailers are most likely switching bias now and targeting the channel's bottom however, I believe we will see Gold push back up to at least around 1800 in the couple of weeks or so, as long as price does not continue heading any lower.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, GBPCAD, EURJPY, XAUUSD (22-26 February 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 26th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, GBPCAD, EURJPY & XAUUSD.

Psst! It is my birthday tomorrow on the 22nd, so I have increased my code's discount, saving you more money! Click the button below and join the A1 Trading Community! It expires on the 26th, so be quick!

GBPUSD

The Pound has been moving extremely bullish here against the Pound, forming a mini-channel inside the long-term ascending channel. We can see the retailer's support at 1.395, where I expect most retail traders to enter this market long. However, right below we can see the huge liquidity void with a bullish OB right below it too. I expect price to continue heading down, stopping out the retailer's trades and only reversing somewhere between the LV and OB. I would recommend looking closer into OB's in the shorter time frames to catch a sniper entry.

GBPCAD

Last week we saw price successfully close at the top of this long-term ascending channel. We could potentially see price make its next long-term move towards the channel's bottom to create the next swing low LH in this market. I am expecting this to happen as we have also got a LV formed from the Daily TF at 1.745, showing where most orders are, and also, we have got the rather large bullish OB where traders are waiting to enter the market. I think we could see a clear drop towards the LV and consolidate for a while until price meets the channel's bottom before continuing the next move in the market.

EURJPY

We have got this ascending triangle pattern which we saw break to the upside in the past couple of weeks. Originally the highlighted box was a bearish OB; however, once we saw price break and continue the chart pattern, this block becomes a Breaker Block and essentially acts as the opposite of what it originally was. We have already seen price reverse from this block after the initial breakout retracement; however, we could see price once again return and once again break to the upside. I will be looking out for price action confirmations at this level to enter long.

XAUUSD

I have mixed bias on this pair; however, it is a tradition for me to look at Gold. Price is currently holding at this bullish OB at 1775-1790. Price broke out of this OB but still closed inside the OB before the daily candle close. For this reason, I'm unsure whether this becomes a breaker block or continues to be a bullish OB. I think long-term, we could see this as a good level to enter longs, as price should be attracted towards the LV at 1890 and overall complete the long-term bullish flag pattern.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY, XAUUSD (15-19 February 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY & XAUUSD.

USDJPY

Price has recently broken out of this long-term descending channel and is now forming a new uptrend. I've got my eye on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5. Most trades will most likely go long at the trend line, but I think price will most likely fake-out lower to take out retailers before reversing and continuing a move to the upside to take out previous highs. Moreover, the Dollar had to contend with more underwhelming jobs data in the form of claims right after Fed chair Powell delivered a somewhat dovish and downbeat address at the NY Economic Club. In short, he underlined flaws in the labour metrics that if eradicated would put the unemployment rate nearer 10% and indicated that the FOMC would overlook a near term inflation spike due to COVID related factors.

GBPNZD

This pair has been falling in price, following the descending trend line for almost a whole year now. Price is now slowly breaking out from this structure and following the ascending triangle pattern printed on the chart. I think we could see price test the Daily-OB at 1.902-1.895 before reversing and continuing it's movement to the upside. We've also been seeing GBP gain relative strength as a whole for multiple reasons such as the vaccine rollout which would stabilise price in the medium-term, we also had the BoE keep its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE program at £895B.

EURJPY

We've got this bearish OB formed from the H4 timeframe at 127.35 where I would ideally like to enter a short position. I'm expecting price to break this trend and make a move to the downside towards the OB at 125.2, to mainly stop out retail traders as most traders will likely go long now, but I'm expecting a Liquidity Raid to stop out traders, make them believe that price is breaking to the upside, then once again reverse, stopping them out and continuing to the downside. This is of course after successive price action confirmations.

XAUUSD

This one could be a bit complicated, as there is quite a lot going on; however, my overall bias is bullish on Gold. We recently collected orders from the Bullish Daily-OB at 1790. Currently price is forming a triangle pattern, suggesting we could see a break to either side, there is a lot of indecision in the market. In the short-term, we could see price head towards the triangle's top at 1845, which is also the long-term descending channel's top if we see price break through the intraday resistance at 1828. However, if we see price breakthrough to the upside, we should easily see price head towards that grey liquidity zone, from there on it's up to the market if we see price reverse or continue travelling to new highs.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, XAUUSD (08-12 February 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 29th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD & XAUUSD.

USDJPY

We've recently seen price break out from this long-term descending channel and is currently forming a new uptrend. I'm focusing on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5 as areas of potential entries to go long if you do decide to enter this pair. Price is likely to retest at least one of these OB's and reverse, and most likely it could be the H4 OB as it's also at the same level of previous resistance in the channel and the previous LH.

GBPJPY

We've got this overall long-term ascending channel with a rising wedge printed from the H4 timeframe. I've been talking about this huge Weekly-OB, which is confirmed that price has collected all orders from. The market closed off for the week sitting around the 100% mark which usually is a great sign for a potential sniper as we short the pair. However, on Thursday the BoE kept its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE stressed it did not wish to send any signal that it intended to set a negative bank rate at some point in the future, leading to GBP strength. It's hard to say whether or not this could continue pushing the markets higher here, however, going back to trading psychology, if everything is checked off, but something looks odd, stick to your trade management plan, and take the trade with very minimal risk.

GBPUSD

Price is also in a long-term ascending channel with a rising wedge pattern. I was expecting price to drop back to the H4-OB at 1.35 however with the positive GBP news we got on the Official Bank Rate, this was a bit short-lived, and we see price once again join the consolidation zone between 1.364 and 1.375. Price could be making the next high in the channel; however, unless we see a clear break and retest and confirmed continued rejection of 1.375, my ideal entry still remains at the 1.35 zone.

XAUUSD

We've got the overall bullish flag pattern here and three key zones of OB's. Looking at Gold's performance last week, as anticipated price did infact head down towards the Daily-OB at 1790 and is already making somewhat of a reversal at just over 200 pips in profit. Ideally, I would prefer to see price reach this zone again to go long; however, it's almost impossible to know if that will happen. Price is definitely on its way towards that Daily-OB at 1950, so I doubt that price can reach anywhere below 1775 unless we see a completely new structure built on this pair. Look out for how price reacts as it enters the H4-OB at 1825.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD, XAUUSD (01-05 February 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 29th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

Looking at the overall trend in this market, we've got the long-term ascending channel, where price has been steadily increasing forming HH's and HL's for almost a year now, ever since the initial Covid-19 drop back in March 2020. Zooming in closer on the H4 timeframe, we've got the rising wedge pattern formed, and price is now reaching the apex point signifying a breakout coming up. In confluence with this, we've also got a strong Bullish OB held at 1.348 which is also attracting price to head downwards to collect trade orders before potentially bouncing off the channel's bottom and rising once again.

GBPCHF

Overall we've got a choppy market here, consolidating between the 1.22 and 1.16 zones. I think it's about ready to break out now, as many confluences are lining up to suggest so. Firstly we've got the large Liquidity Pool (LP) area formed on the Weekly TF, attracting price towards this zone. Secondly, the resistance level at 1.22 is where most retailers would be selling, as it's seen as strong resistance and unlikely to break above. However, with all the liquidity above, banks are likely to push price higher to hit sellers stop-losses.

GBPJPY

Overall, we've got the ascending channel formed just like on GBPUSD where price has been steadily increasing after the initial crash caused by Covid-19. We've got the rising wedge pattern showing on the short-term time frames, and a substantially large bearish OB formed shown on the Weekly TF. We've also got retailers seeing resistance at 142.5, so most are likely to be selling at the moment. Price is moving exactly how I'm expecting it to, breaking above higher to catch out retailers and take out their stop losses, collecting orders from the OB displayed and now I'm expecting a huge downfall on this pair up to the channel's bottom.

XAUUSD

Overall, I have been pointing out this bullish flag pattern where price fails to break above the channel's top to complete the pattern. I expect a short-term bearish move to collect orders at the Daily Bullish OB displayed in the chart shown by the curved arrow. Price should be collecting orders at this level before making a reversal and completing the flag pattern on this pair. I find it unlikely that price will reverse at the H4 Bull-OB displayed on the chart because it's seen a retailer's support however it is possible, so it's essential to look out for price action confirmations before taking any positions.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD, XAUUSD (24-29 January 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 29th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD & XAUUSD.

EURUSD

Price is moving along this ascending trend line here; however, there isn't much momentum as price is moving sideways. Similarly to the price action back between August and December, price was consolidating until it reached the trend line and then making the bullish outbreak. What we have got going on now is similar to what he had previously, and we could expect price to turn out the same way, when price meets the ascending trend line. Price is currently in the middle between the two levels highlighted in the image, and price could head either way next, but I still think we could see the break to the upside once price meets the trend line and shows successive rejections.

GBPJPY

Price is moving in this long-term ascending channel and now slowly trending to the upside after the break of the ascending triangle pattern back in December 2020. Currently price is sitting at the same level as the previous higher high in the channel at 142.00. We saw price approach this level, retrace back to the previous resistance, treated it as new support, and is now once again at this higher high, and looking like it will most likely continue to break to the upside. A good entry would be now as the week closed off on a hammer candle, suggesting an upside move, or for extra confirmation, wait for price to break, then enter on the retest once there are clear price action confirmations of continued rejection.

GBPAUD

Price has formed this descending triangle pattern and is now breaking out of the pattern to the upside. Price has broken out of the structure, retested the descending trendline, and is now back at the same resistance of the initial breakout at 1.773. If price continues to break, this could be an excellent level to go long at once price retests and treats this resistance level as new support once there are clear confirmations of rejection and a continued upward movement. I am looking for target profits at the support level of the previous descending triangle at around 1.80.

XAUUSD

Price is still in this long-term bullish flag pattern which began in June 2020. Price was on its way to breaking to the upside; however, quickly returned back inside the channel. Price closed off for the week with a hammer candle right at the channel's top. Price is still yet to fill in the gap caused by the aggressive bearish candle. I reckon this should be filled in this upcoming week and price should head towards the 1950 level.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, CADJPY, GBPAUD, XAUUSD (17-22 January 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 22nd, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, CADJPY, GBPAUD & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

Looking at GU on the Daily timeframe, price has been channelling along for almost a year now, forming higher highs and higher lows. We have recently seen price break through the previous higher high's resistance at 1.348, and we're currently seeing some choppy movements in the past couple weeks, with price staying below the intraday resistance at 1.37. If price continues to hold above the previous high's resistance (now new support) at 1.348, then it's a good position to go long, or once we see price break above the intraday resistance at 1.37 then with successive price action confirmations of a continued bullish move, could also be an excellent position to go long as price heads towards the channel's top.

CADJPY

Here price is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at around 82.00. We can see two different ascending trend lines, as price seems to be holding both well, so if trend line 1 gets broken, I'm still expecting trend line 2 to continue holding the pattern together. We could enter this pattern two ways, the first would be on the ascending trend line when price approaches it, and then signs of rejections are visible. The second way would be to wait for price to break above the resistance in this pattern, wait for price to retest, then look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection then go long.

GBPAUD

Looking at GA on the H4 timeframe, we can see price forming another descending triangle pattern right after the previous successful descending triangle, with support at 1.743. Price is currently around the descending trend line, which could be a great position to go short on this pair, once we see clear price action confirmations of a rejection to this level. On the other hand, we could also take another short once price breaks through the support, wait for price to retest then look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection and go short for at least a 1:3 R:R.

XAUUSD

Price has been holding this overall bullish flag pattern since June 2020, price was on its way to break above the channel's top and complete the flag pattern however we saw price fail and return inside the channel. Price is currently consolidating between two intraday levels at 1860 and 1820. Right now I would suggest staying on the sidelines until there are clear confirmations of a move above or below these levels. Once we see price breakthrough either level, look out for a retest then continued price action confirmations of a rejection before taking a position in the desired direction. If price does break below, a move back down to the channel's bottom looks likely.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDJPY, XAUUSD (10-15 January 2021)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending January 15th, 2021. It's so great to be back, I hope everyone's had a fantastic holiday, and I hope everyone's motivated to work 10x harder than last year. I'm wishing everyone nothing but the best, but apart from that, I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, EURCHF, USDJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

GU continues to move in this ascending channel, on the 21st of December, we saw price once again respect the channel's support and reject it. Currently, price has broken the previous higher high in the channel at 1.35 and is consolidating just above it, acting as new support. Bulls in the market are looking for price action confirmations of a precise touch and rejection to the 1.348 level and then long however on the other hand bears may wait for price to break below, then treat the 1.348 level as resistance and push down back to previous lows at 1.315. Now looking at fundamentals, there's a lot of mixed bias on where the Pound is heading next. Credit Agricole argued that given the lingering political and economic risks (a Covid-induced double-dip recession) in the UK, they believe that the GBP risks are tilted to the downside in the near-term, especially if the health situation in the UK continues to deteriorate.

EURCHF

Looking at this chart, we've got a clear ascending triangle forming with resistance at 1.085, and we can see that apart from where it's outlined on the chart above, this level has been acting as resistance since June 2020. Price is currently nearing the supportive trend line, and I'm looking to potentially go long once there are clear rejections to this trend line. However, if we don't get a full touch and rejection, I'll look to go long after seeing price break above the resistance, retest and then successfully treat this old resistance as new support. The Bank of America explains that they are skeptical about substantial further EUR strength, particularly during a Eurozone recession that is more severe than in most of the world. The long EUR market position also makes it one of the most vulnerable G10 currencies to an overall market risk-off.

USDJPY

UJ has been travelling below this descending trend line since July 2020 and is now slowly approaching the trend line, expected at around 104.3. Bears in this market would look out for price action confirmations of a continued rejection to the trend line once we get a clear touch however bulls in this could potentially wait for price to break this structure, and once the previous resistance at 104.7 is met and broken, they could look for potential entries around there to complete the move back to the previous highs at 108. We could expect this structure to be broken, considering that the USD is now the weakest of the majors, having turned negative on the day following an overall disappointing December employment report with NFP printing at -140K versus consensus of +60K.

XAUUSD

Price is still in this overall bullish flag pattern; we saw a potential completed move to the upside as price was travelling in a short-term channel following a successful 3rd touch and rejection of the channel's supportive trend line. However, as we can see, this was broken, and price fell right through back inside the channel once again. If price continues to hold the current level at 1850, we could see the bullish break happen again however if price breaks below I think it's likely we'll get a 4th touch of the channel's support. The US Jobs report was mixed although the headline shocked to the downside, falling 140k, well beneath the estimates of a 71k rise, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7% (expected 6.8%), and the participation rate remained at 61.5%. Although the headline was grim, the prior was revised up to +336k from +245k. The wage data jumped to 0.8% m/m from 0.3% m/m (exp. 0.2%), likely as many of the lower-paid services jobs were lost as the Hospitality and Leisure sector battles the pandemic. It raises the prospects for more stimulus from fiscal authorities and combined with an entirely Democratic government, and it furthers the possibilities even more.

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COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

Throughout the year, we've seen many changes to the way we trade, how we manage risk and how we interpret the markets. The new insights we have gained over the months usually come after years of trading and adapting to ever-changing environments. We've done all that in a matter of months! Up until the New Year, we will see even more changes to the way we trade as news about stimulus, BREXIT, COVID-19 and other things storm the market and dominate the news. With all this in mind, from what we currently know, here are some things that we think will be top tier for trading/investing in the markets, forex, metals and crypto from here and into the next year.

Because we're looking for ideas that stay relevant in the longer term (as in 2020 and 2021), these ideas/setups are going to be more fundamentally based rather than short-term technical setups.

EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD daily chart

This pair has proven to be very volatile during times of economic fallout. That spike we see starting in late February kept bringing up new highs for a massive gain once the rally was over. With the news about the UK and their emergency from the new COVID strain, we could see heavy volatility from here on as a new strain could be bad news for our most recent vaccines. One thing we can take from a trade like is momentum. If governments start announcing further shut downs worldwide, expect this pair to take flight once more.

Biden's Goals for Solar Power and Cannabis

As of January 2021, the Biden Administration plans to decriminalize marijuana as well as help introduce more solar panels as they push to end the era of fossil fuels. Experts in the clean energy field have established that solar power is now less costly than fossil fuel plants. Companies like SolarEdge (SEDG) and Sunrun (RUN) could see some long term growth in the next 4 years.

Cannabis is also something to look out for during Biden's presidency. With the MORE Act already passing through Congress which aims to decriminalize pot, it's up to the Senate to push it through although it is considered unlikely. Nevertheless, more bills continue to swing into view such as the STATES Act. This bill will help companies in their profits by giving them tax breaks since they pay sky-high amounts as of now. Although these bills are not guaranteed to pass, this shows that the government is pushing toward more leniency on this industry and will likely reach some sort of conclusion with the help of Biden's push for legalization.

Gold

XAU/USD 4H chart

Gold will also have a big role to play in the coming months as well as into 2021. As you probably know, gold is a risk-off investment and usually performs well when the USD suffers. This year, stimulus brought about some extreme printing of money pouring into the US economy. This in turn, hurt the USD causing the XAU/USD pair to skyrocket in the summer.

With the new COVID strain out in the UK, there are some things we need to consider: what does this mean for our vaccine? And will countries have to shut down once more? If this strain of the virus becomes another global situation, it is likely that our country will have to repeat the same process back in February and March. A country-wide shut down will only hurt recovering businesses more, and stimulus will be needed to be pumped back into the economy. If the future were to play out like this, the USD will only be further weakened as gold will rise in demand. Analysts also believe in a $2000 price target for this metal.

Crypto

Similarly to gold, cryptos will likely see a rise in demand if the USD falls. More analysts, hedge funds and banks are starting to recognize this type of currency transaction as the way of the future after being so bearish on them for the past three years.

Bitcoin had a key thing happen with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust increased their asset in Bitcoin to over $13 billion from $1 billion last year. We are also starting to see more funds get into this crypto like Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. who bought about $100 million to add to their portfolio.

Another crypto to look out for going into 2021 is the meme currency, dogecoin. After Musk's latest tweet about doge, the pair soared 20% reaching highs from July. Elon Musk is clearly joking when he talks about dogecoin, yet his words still bring traction to the market. In an effort for investors to raise it over $1, investors don't need valuation to justify a ridiculous price; they just need the hype.

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One thing we could take away from this year is that with hype comes momentum, and it's usually a good bit of it. We saw the way EUR/AUD took off at the beginning of the government shut downs. We saw global stocks rise to all-time highs after the Fed announced their stimulus package. Gold hit record highs as well, all from momentum. The circumstances change, but the idea is always the same. If we can look passed the fact some things may seem worthless (like Bitcoin in 2017, like Tesla in 2019), we can be in for some very profitable trades in the New Year. It all comes down to momentum.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (13-18 December 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 18th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.

GBPUSD

Price has been travelling in this ascending channel since March forming higher highs and higher lows. Over the past couple weeks, I've been saying we are now forming the next swing in the market, making our way to the channel's top. However, we saw price form the rising wedge, which price has now broken out off and made a move to the downside, touching the channel's bottom. Buyers in this market would look to go long at around 1.31 as long as there isn't a daily candle close below the channel and target the channel's top at around 1.40. Sellers in this market would look to go short at around 1.327 as long as price can hold and reject this intraday level once more. They could look for targets outside of the channel if price confirms a new trend at around 1.29 and possibly 1.20. Click here for my fundamental outlook on this pair.

USDJPY

Price has been moving in a strong bearish trend, staying below the descending trend line, we can see many touch, rejection and bounce off this trend line. Currently, we're seeing price consolidate between 104.7 and 103.7, and the direction market could be heading next is unknown, until we see a clear breakout of these levels. If we see the overall trend continue, and price breaks below the range, then sellers could look to enter on the retest of the previous support level and target 103.00 and a previous low at 101.50. If we see price break above this range, then buyers could look to enter on the retest of the previous resistance level and target the 105.40 level and previous highs at 107.00.

GBPJPY

Similarly to GU, price is also travelling in an ascending channel forming successive higher highs and higher lows. We can see the ascending triangle pattern, which was formed with resistance at 137.70, price broke out, formed a new resistance at 140.00 and now treats the previous resistance as new support. Price dropped back down to the channel's bottom, near enough at the same support level. Buyers in this market would look to go long at around 137.00, and look for targets at around 140.00 and then 147.00. Sellers in this market would look to go short at around 137.70 as long as price can hold and reject the previous resistance and continue treating it as resistance, targetting 133.00 and 126.00. We may also see a completely new trend form if we see the Daily candle close below the channel's bottom.

XAUUSD

I've been pointing out this bullish flag pattern which price has formed on this pair. We saw price touch, reject and bounce off the channel's bottom and price is now stuck consolidating at the previous support level of the second descending triangle pattern in the channel. Buyers would go long at around 1850, or 1885 once there are clear price action confirmations of a continued bullish move, and look for targets at around 1924 and 2050. Sellers would go short at around 1850, or 1820 or there are clear price action confirmations of a continued bearish move, and look for targets at around 1785 and 1730.

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DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVES VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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