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Shocking CAD Inflation News

Statistics Canada released a surprising new batch of inflation data this morning: month-over-month CPI failed to meet market forecasts, declining by 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.1%. Rather than being an outlier, the other measurements of CPI mostly followed suit, as both year-over-year Trimmed CPI and Median CPI likewise failed to meet expectations. Trimmed CPI’s poor performance, clocking in at a 5.2% increase year-over-year instead of the expected 5.5%, could be interpreted as particularly significant in that it excludes the 40% most volatile prices. This may theoretically set CAD fundamentals apart from USD, in that the Federal Reserve has incentive to keep hiking interest rates due to stubborn core inflation, while the Bank of Canada no longer does. Regardless of your overall Canadian Dollar bias, this is shocking CAD inflation news.

Best Pairs to Trade

While there are multiple ways to take this news, I personally have two takeaways: 1) USD/CAD bullishness now seems more compelling in light of the growing disparity between Canada’s inflation problem and the US’ inflation problem, and 2) the market reaction to this news could present discounted opportunities to buy CAD against less promising currencies. These readings are consistent with current EdgeFinder signals as well, as can be seen with the following pairs:

1) USD/CAD (Receives a 3, or ‘Buy’ Signal)

Shocking CAD Inflation News
Shocking CAD Inflation News

Price action has just hit a historic resistance zone, with Keltner Channels also indicating overbought conditions. Conservative traders may want to wait for a more optimal buying opportunity, though there may be some breathing room left before hitting the upper trendline and top of this resistance zone.

2) GBP/CAD (Receives a -6, or ‘Strong Sell’ Signal)

Shocking CAD Inflation News
Shocking CAD Inflation News

Price action is currently retesting the depicted zone as resistance and could potentially serve as an optimal selling point.

3) NZD/CAD (Receives a -4, or ‘Sell’ Signal)

Shocking CAD Inflation News
Shocking CAD Inflation News

Despite the bearish CAD news and support at 0.79, price action has still been bearish for this pair today. There is also ample room to potentially continue selling off before touching support from the lower trendline.

CHF Might Be Underrated

Forex traders had a fair bit of news to chew on this morning. All eyes were on the European Central Bank as they implemented an anticipated 75 basis point rate hike followed by a press conference, after which the world was treated to yet more commentary from Fed Chair Powell. Perhaps sliding under the radar was positive labor market news for CHF, with Switzerland’s unemployment rate beating expectations by falling to 2.1%. This joins a long list of reasons to consider going long on the Swiss Franc, as CHF might be underrated.

The Swiss Economy’s Strength

Switzerland boasts many economic factors weighing in its favor, including its hot labor market, CHF’s safe haven reputation, and GDP growth in spite of a recession-prone global economy. In many ways it is comparable to Japan’s economy, as both are high performing, export-heavy economies that are historically comfortable with negative interest rates due to low inflation relative to other countries.

However, one crucial difference between the two in terms of fundamentals is that the Swiss National Bank has proven willing to hike interest rates recently, whereas the Bank of Japan has thus far put off such a move. With Switzerland’s annual inflation still creeping up, currently hovering at 3.5% (a thirty-year high), more tightening could potentially be on the menu.

Best CHF Pairs to Trade

According to the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner tool, the following three pairs may be worth selling for CHF bulls. Here are the pairs, along with their respective EdgeFinder ratings:

1) GBP/CHF (Earns a -6, or ‘Strong Sell’ Rating)

CHF Might Be Underrated

2) NZD/CHF (Earns a -6, or ‘Strong Sell’ Rating)

CHF Might Be Underrated

3) AUD/CHF (Earns a -5, or ‘Sell’ Rating)

CHF Might Be Underrated
3 Great CAD Pairs

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a market-moving speech this morning, striking a deliberately hawkish tone regarding the taming of inflation continuing to be the Fed’s priority. While USD is surging against other currencies as markets now expect further interest rate hikes with a greater degree of certainty, let’s explore another currency that may be quite undervalued: the Canadian Dollar. Let’s discuss CAD’s fundamentals, and 3 great CAD pairs to potentially trade next week.

What’s Special About CAD Fundamentals?

Taken at face value, the state of Canada’s economy may not seem especially impressive in terms of fundamental analysis for forex. Annual inflation (7.6%) is high, but not shockingly so relative to other economies, and the unemployment rate hovers just shy of a mediocre 5%. However, upon a closer look, there are many impressive aspects to it, including an extremely hawkish Bank of Canada, a key interest rate identical to that of the US, and positive GDP growth. On top of these conditions, Canada consistently exports oil and gas to the US, an economy approximately ten times bigger, and the estimated value of Canada’s natural resources is over $30 trillion, among the highest in the world.

Best Pairs to Trade

For those who are interested in going long on CAD, here are three of the EdgeFinder’s top-rated suggestions for CAD pairs to sell, along with their respective ratings:

1) GBP/CAD (Earns a -8, or 'Strong Sell')

3 Great CAD Pairs

2) EUR/CAD (Earns a -7, or 'Strong Sell')

3 Great CAD Pairs

3) NZD/CAD (Earns a -3, or 'Sell')

3 Great CAD Pairs
Why Global Recession Is Still Likely

On Friday this past week, the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics released the latest reports on the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a means of measuring economic output. It was revealed that their economy grew by -0.6% month-over-month, and -0.1% quarter-over-quarter, which entails a contraction for both timeframes. Although these numbers are less disastrous than had been forecast, they are unfortunately part of a trend: New Zealand has also suffered a contraction in GDP, while the United States has experienced two consecutive quarters of contraction, a technical recession. While these declines in output are historically strange, seemingly contradicting recent phenomena like relatively high levels of employment and stock market rallies, they ought to be taken into account by traders nonetheless. Let’s explore some of the root causes of these contractions as well as factors exacerbating them as we discuss why global recession is still likely.

1) Restricted Supply

Often when inflation occurs, it is because demand for a product or service is rising at a faster rate than the supply of the product or service itself. However, this is not always the case; sometimes, inflation is caused primarily by a decrease in the supply of a thing, rather than growing demand alone. We are experiencing this phenomenon today with high food and energy prices, which explains why CPI has far outpaced core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) in many countries.

Because commodities like oil and commodity crops are scarce resources that consumers rely on to live, geopolitical problems like the invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions, as well as environmental problems such as heatwaves, droughts, and famines, restrict available supply. Many of these problems either are or can become chronic and near-ubiquitous, leading to persistent inflation from shortages that cannot be resolved through contractionary monetary policy.

2) Interest Rate Hikes

While interest rate hikes are a crucial monetary policy tool for curbing inflation and cooling an overheating economy, they also come with a nasty side effect: slower growth. This is because rising interest rate are designed to stifle growth by limiting consumers’ and businesses’ ability and desire to borrow money, restricting spending and thus the chances of inflation.

While lower GDP growth, even a contraction, does not necessarily create a recession, it is nonetheless playing with fire by taking steps in that direction. This is especially relevant considering that many central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, have begun fully embracing hawkishness through unusually aggressive rate hikes.

3) Trade Deficits

Another economic factor that often quite literally detracts from a country’s GDP is trade balance. Some wealthy countries have negative trade balances, or trade deficits, created by their imports exceeding their exports. While a trade deficit might grant consumers more access to lower priced goods from other countries, it also results in a net loss of economic output that is subtracted from GDP. When trade deficits are frequent, as in the case of the US, this can theoretically severely impede economic growth, which likely contributed to the country’s technical recession. Both the UK and New Zealand have recently been reporting trade deficits as well, which is unsurprising.

4) Underfunded Pensions

Across the developed world, underfunded pension programs are proving to be a difficult problem to contend with. With large percentages of many countries’ workforces retiring, public pension systems such as Germany’s are struggling to keep up, with the German government bailing out the program with €100bn in 2021. Likewise, Social Security in the US is expected to be trillions of dollars behind in long-term funding, despite the average annual benefit amounting to less than $20,000 per recipient. Failure to improve pensions severely limits demand and growth within an economy, since a large chunk of many countries’ populations are retired adults who still spend.

5) Real Pay Cuts

Some economists worry about the possibility of high inflation combined with hot labor markets creating a ‘wage-price spiral’ where inflation persists uncontrollably due to rising employee earnings. However, the truth appears to be less fanciful, and grimmer. Even with today’s historically high rates of increasing incomes for working people, year-over-year inflation completely negates these raises in most circumstances. For example, with average hourly earnings increasing over 5% in the US, when we account for 8.5% year-over-year CPI, this implies a real pay cut of approximately 3% for working people. This entails a net loss in consumer spending, which means less revenue for businesses, and thus lower GDP growth.

6) Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

For better or for worse, market sentiment has a hand in creating fundamentals (by allocating capital), not just the other way around. Thus, if dread about a global recession continues to loom in the public consciousness, traders and investors may respond by buying and selling accordingly, potentially accelerating a coming recession with stock market and forex selloffs. In this way, the general perception of an impending global recession alone can play a large role in creating one.

Consequences for Pairs?

Lately, much of traders’ fundamental analysis has focused on how central banks respond to inflation as the primary economic threat. However, if global recession becomes a reality, there is a chance we could see central banks return to their dovish ways, which may warrant reassessing pair biases from scratch. It is also worth noting that these hypothetical dovish pivots may not occur in the face of stagflation, which unfortunately seems possible given supply concerns.

Key Takeaways

• A number of countries are currently experiencing negative GDP growth, i.e., contractions in economic output, which traders should take into account while gauging the likelihood of global recession.
• One aspect of each contraction likely involves the potentially dwindling supply of scarce resources such as crops and oil due to war, sanctions, droughts, and other potentially chronic problems. This lowers the amount of ‘stuff’ there is to buy, shrinking output.
• While interest rate hikes curb inflation within a currency’s host country, they also disincentivize consumers and businesses from borrowing money, restricting GDP growth.
• Economies prone to trade deficits, i.e., spending more on imports than they receive selling exports, impair their GDP growth by net losing output in the trade process.
• Underfunded pension systems, which cause lower benefits for elderly consumers, are proving to be an international problem, limiting consumer demand and GDP accordingly.
• Although wage growth is rising at the fastest rate in years, it still often pales in comparison to high rates of inflation, limiting consumer demand and GDP accordingly.
• Fear of impending recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy by spooking investors and speculators, encouraging mass selloffs that create the catastrophes they were afraid of in the first place.
• If a massive event such as global recession, or even stagflation, becomes reality, this could warrant a complete reevaluation of pair biases and fundamentals.

Next Tuesday, the RBNZ will announce their new official bank rate which is expected to be 3%, a 0.50% rise from July. This hike will make it the highest yielding major currency on the market. Here is why you should consider buying the kiwi before Tuesday's decision as well as some strong NZD long setups.

Preview of Policy Decisions

The Regional Bank of New Zealand has been very adamant about tackling inflammatory issues in their economy. So much so, that analysts have stated that rates will not only reach a certain level but stay there for an extended period of time.

It also appears that New Zealand's central bank is planning to stay the course with consistent 50 basis point runs in the future. GDP is still in decline, so the economy is experiencing contraction, but that does not seem to deter the RBNZ for now.

People do have more confidence in the bank's battle as surveys saw a decrease in inflation expectations from 3.29% to 3.07% in 2023.

Kiwi Outlook

Subduing inflation is a primary factor in the kiwi's strength. Commodity prices like gold, oil and agriculture have declined overall due to supply chain issues and geopolitical conflict. This has an affect on the economy, but it is secondary towards CPI.

Investors are now pricing in the kiwi's target as we come to an end of this trading week. Outlook is strong on this currency right now.

Kiwi Setups

NZD/CHF

kiwi

Kiwi-swiss jumped today on rate hike anticipation. Price formed a higher high on the 1D, but still needs to close above resistance to validate a breakout. Price has been on a relatively long downtrend since February of 2021. Because of this strong trend to the downside, it's hard to tell when sentiment will shift. But a break above resistance could take price higher towards 0.61700s.

NZD/CAD

kiwi

NZDCAD is coming up to test a previous top after breaking above a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe. More resistance lies above around the 61.8% fib retracement level and another longer term falling trend line.

EUR/NZD

kiwi

One of the hardest moves on the kiwi is EURNZD after price drops 0.79% already today. Price already broke under support and formed a lower low, but it still looks like there is room to run on the 1D timeframe. Strong downside momentum could take price all the way to test the lows around 1.56904.

4 Ways Housing Bubbles Affect Forex

Throughout much of the developed world, housing prices have recently begun taking a tumble. Home valuations and rent costs had soared to unsettling high levels amid near-zero interest rates and other pandemic-era monetary stimulus; however, near-ubiquitous central bank rate hikes are beginning to bring many countries’ housing prices back down to earth. According to the Economist, in Sweden, home prices declined by almost 4% in June, while in New Zealand they have depreciated from highs for three consecutive months. Considering that real estate remains the biggest asset class in existence, and that housing markets arguably lie at the heart of global economic output, forex traders would be wise to consider these fundamentals when buying or selling pairs. Let’s explore 4 ways housing bubbles affect forex, as well as other markets.  

1) Measures Inflation Rates

For foreign exchange traders, gauging inflation within a currency’s host country is practically essential to fundamental analysis, since it often correlates with economic growth and helps analysts anticipate potential interest rate hikes. While there are many useful measurements of inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE), measurements like the House Price Index (HPI) and home sales data are also relevant.

This is because higher housing prices and increased home sales are signs of a hot housing market, which indicates higher levels of consumer demand and thus potential inflation. After all, if house prices are increasing, this is typically because more people have money to spend on purchasing a home, whether through income or borrowing. This presupposes that they have general access to financing that they could use elsewhere, driving up prices in other industries too. Therefore, keeping up with the latest housing market data can be handy when it comes to assessing the severity of existing inflation.

2) Influences the Cost of Living

Besides offering data regarding pre-existing inflationary threats and spending patterns, housing market data can also give traders insight into how home prices transform the cost of living. For example, in the US in 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average housing expenditures were over $21,000 per ‘consumer unit’ and accounted for over one third of all consumer spending. This means that the cost of renting a home or taking out a mortgage has serious implications for the overall cost of living.

While rising home prices in general may not contribute to high levels of inflation, this past year’s sky-high prices are not ordinary circumstances: they are symptomatic of a bubble (when prices are far higher than they fundamentally ought to be), created artificially through low-interest loans. When central banks around the world incentivized easy borrowing through low rates and quantitative easing, they encouraged consumers to take out cheap, fixed rate mortgages and other debts while still spending more elsewhere, for the sake of economic stimulus. However, this short-term solution may have disturbing long-term consequences, as high inflation persists globally while rate hikes now abound in response.

3) Guarantees Revenue for Banks

Because commercial banks have multiple revenue streams that include owning mortgages and selling mortgage-backed securities, they have become instrumental to housing market activity. Due to acutely limited supply across many countries’ housing markets (for example, by some estimates, England is over 150,000 new homes behind in construction per year), many home buyers would not be able to afford the purchase without substantial loans from these banks.

However, ‘money-printing’-induced housing bubbles have further bolstered the banking industries via the housing market, and vice versa. When central banks encouraged bountiful lending, spending, and investing, increasing the number of homebuyers, this meant more clients for banks than would have otherwise existed, often including the central banks themselves.

By propping up the banking industries through these new borrowers and asset purchasing programs, this influx of capital also enabled banks to further profit from new investments, exacerbating inflation in a top-down manner due to the artificial, allocated capital. This is because, in many countries, commercial banks can also legally operate as investment banks, generating higher returns on investment by engaging in more risk. For example, this has been the case in the US since the overturning of Glass–Steagall in 1999.

4) Promotes Fragility, Not Stability

Between the recessions created by the 2008 financial crisis and today’s recessions caused by high inflation rates around the world, recent history offers a compelling case: housing bubbles promote economic fragility by accelerating expansion and contraction (i.e., boom and bust cycles). Unfortunately, for now, it appears that this lesson may have been learned too late, as the world’s central banks embark on a mission to crush consumer demand as a sort of necessary evil by venturing deeper into recessions in search of price stability. However, traders can learn to read housing bubble data accordingly, recognizing it for what it is: indications of severe overheating, followed by indications of impending contraction.

Key Takeaways

The dollar is weaker today as the US is set to announce their seventh Non-Farm Payroll this year. Economists and investors alike anticipate this news to see whether the jobs market and output is going to come out with signs of retraction again. Here are some concepts followed by some of the best setups for USD pairs before Friday's NFP.

Expecting Contraction

The US expects to report yet another decline in output during this recessionary period. Forecasts say that the number of jobs added in the month of July will be 122K less than in June, marking the fifth contraction in a row.

best setups
USD GDP

Although monthly growth is exceeding analyst expectations, the rate is still slowing down. Investors should be keen not to be fooled by a beat in forecasts if GDP is still declining. On top of that, the unemployment rate is expected to increase as well by another 0.1%.

This could spell weakness for the dollar, even as interest rates rise. So, here are a few setups that we think are the best going into the week bearish or bullish.

Best Setups for USD

USD/JPY

best setups

UJ continues to slide on a strong yen as the BOJ decided that no intervention was required to find economic growth. The overall trend is still on the upside for the most part, but signs of a shift in momentum just happened on the 1D timeframe. Price broke under a long term trend line and is headed toward support around 131.407. Additional support doesn't look clear until the 125.100s-126.300s.

NZD/USD

best setups

NZDUSD shoots higher on the day as the dollar sinks from weak outlook. Price has already broken above a falling trend line and is pushing towards resistance around 0.63918. Further resistance lies above around 0.65505 should price break higher.

GBP/USD

best setups

GU inches toward resistance around 1.23300s. Its correlation to the US stock market has reflected price action and will likely continue its trend upward until the SPX500 turns the other way. Up until NFP, the pair may rise higher towards 1.233 and 1.244 which is another level higher. It is unclear whether or not the bear market has ended, but price looks like it will continue to rise going into Friday's report.

How To Short USD: 3 Options

Why Sell USD?

While many USD bulls (including myself) think that bullish momentum in the US Dollar Index has a ways to go before buying pressure is exhausted, there is a compelling argument that this is not the case. First, the United States economy officially met the criteria for a technical recession as of Thursday morning: two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, which is bearish for USD in theory.

Second, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave ambiguous comments at the FOMC press conference this past Wednesday, which many analysts and traders interpreted as subtly dovish. If true, this would be monumentally bearish for USD, considering US inflation remains at 40-year highs. For those interested in shorting the US Dollar, here are three major pairs that the EdgeFinder, an A1 Trading tool for supplemental analysis, signals as opportunities for selling USD.

How To Short USD: 3 Options
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1) Sell USD/CHF

With a rating of -6, earning a ‘strong sell’ signal, fundamentals currently favor CHF for the most part, between Switzerland’s 2% unemployment rate and growing economy. The only strike against it is currently COT data, with a higher percentage of institutional traders buying USD rather than CHF.   

How To Short USD: 3 Options
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2) Sell USD/CAD

With a rating of -4, earning a ‘sell’ signal, fundamentals are somewhat mixed for the pair, and are especially unique considering that the US is one of Canada’s primary trading partners. However, retail sentiment, seasonality, and trend reading currently weigh in CAD’s favor.

How To Short USD: 3 Options
Get a copy of The Edgefinder here for 10% off with code READER

3) Buy NZD/USD

With a rating of 4, earning a ‘buy’ signal, fundamentals currently favor NZD in light of New Zealand’s 3.2% unemployment rate and smaller economic contraction, as well as their exports. While institutional and retail sentiment don’t favor NZD, seasonality and trend reading do.

How To Short USD: 3 Options

How To Monitor USD

For those who are interested in keeping tabs on USD fundamentals and sentiment before trading major pairs, investing in the EdgeFinder will help you keep up with the latest economic data, COT data, and more. Use this link if you would like to purchase the EdgeFinder, or perhaps try it out for free.

AUD and NZD is stronger today as the RBNZ rate decision is to come out later today at 10:00 p.m. EST. Let's see a forecast on the kiwi and how it fares compared to other currencies. Here are some reasons to be buy kiwi before then.

What To Expect

The kiwi hit a two-year low as the currency struggles with surging inflation and slower economic growth. This seems to be a common theme around the world as other major economies are going through the same contraction. However, we can look to interest rates.

Some countries are doing the same thing, but are not aggressive enough compared to economists. New Zealand's central bank is already the most combative against inflation with an interest rate of 2% already. Most major countries are struggling to bring it up any higher because of the economy.

buy kiwi
Kiwi cash rate

However, it seems that the RBNZ is taking up a similar philosophy to the Federal Reserve which is to fight inflation at all costs. This means that the kiwi's interest rate is going to continue to rise regardless of what happens to the economy in the short term. In other words, if unemployment rises, so be it.

RBNZ plans to hike up their interest by another 50 basis points with rumored talks of doing another one in August. Rates are at 2% now, expecting to be 2.50% later today, and 3% in August.

Setups to Buy Kiwi

NZD/CHF

buy kiwi

NZDCHF climbs on the day in anticipation of a 50 bp hike. Price has significant resistance around 0.61683 and a falling trend line right above it that could likely get tested soon. Traders might try to price the kiwi at a higher level, so that level of resistance could be a good price target.

NZD/JPY

buy kiwi

This pair looks promising to the upside as price touches a rising trend line on the 1D timeframe. This level is also paired with a zone of support where a double bottom has formed. Traders might be looking to ride this trade to the top of the wedge of even a potential breakout to further highs.

EUR/NZD

buy kiwi

EURNZD comes down to a previous bottom on the 1D timeframe. Price could see a bounce from this support, however, a break under this level would result in a pretty considerable drop in value. Price could go as far as the 1.56000s on an extreme move.

Warning: How Doomed Is GBP?

GBPUSD reached a new two-year low today upon falling beneath 1.19 support yet again, the second time since last week. These lows are due in part to USD strength after Friday’s strong Non-Farm Payroll data revealed over 100,000 more new US jobs than were expected; as traders anxiously await Wednesday’s new CPI numbers, anticipation for red-hot US inflation grows. However, much of GBPUSD’s bearish momentum is due to the Pound itself, and unusual, pessimistic circumstances that the UK’s economy is facing. Let’s explore what these conditions are as we issue a warning: how doomed is GBP?

1) Resignations & Other Chaos

On July 7th, a Thursday morning, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. His stepping down came amid an unexpected mass resignation of over fifty Conservative members of parliament (MPs), due to disappointment in party leadership over a slew of scandals. It is worth noting that while Johnson has resigned as head of his party, he intends to remain Prime Minister over the next few months, until the governing Conservative Party elects a new leader to replace him. These events have aided in throwing Parliament into disarray, and will certainly not improve its economic problem-solving efficacy, nor any sentiment adjacent to it.

While political resignations of this magnitude would be inconvenient for any country to experience, this is especially difficult for the UK, since post-Brexit trade deals are still either in their infancy or have yet to be negotiated. Since 2020, when Brexit took effect and the UK’s trade to GDP ratio declined by 8.31% (from 63.4% to 55.09%), trade statistics have been volatile and tricky to analyze, especially in light of post-COVID supply chain issues. According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, “It continues to be difficult to assess the extent to which trade movements reflect short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments.”

2) A Reluctant Bank of England

The UK’s annual inflation rate hit a staggering 9.1% in May, the highest among the G7 countries. In theory this should be bullish for GBP, because higher inflation implies a growing economy and serves as an antecedent to rate hikes, which are central bank attempts to stabilize prices. However, despite the Bank of England (BoE), the UK’s central bank, warning that annual inflation could reach 11% in the coming months, they lag significantly behind the US’ Federal Reserve in terms of hawkish aggression. They have thus far only resorted to 25 basis point rate hikes within the past year, with their target interest rate currently at 1.25%; this slow pace is nearly as tepid as tightening monetary policy can be. This hesitancy to stamp out UK hyperinflation is extremely bearish for GBP.

3) A Rising Unemployment Rate

The UK’s unemployment rate recently ticked up to 3.8%. While rising unemployment is a bad sign for the performance of any country’s economy, this is particularly problematic for the UK and the Bank of England for two reasons. First, considering that the BoE’s target interest rate is a relatively low 1.25% while inflation is at 40-year highs, for unemployment to already be increasing is discouraging. This indicates fragility in the UK’s labor market, and by extension their economy, which likely contributes to the BoE being wary of contractionary monetary policy. Second, if the UK labor market continues to be acutely sensitive to a cooling economy, this joblessness might especially aid in slowing consumer spending, reducing the overall need for BoE intervention via rate hikes (unless stagflation surfaces).

4) Bearish Institutional Sentiment

According to recent Commitments of Traders (COT) data, GBP clocks in as the third most shorted COT asset, with 70.75% of all institutional traders selling the Pound. This bearishness is a significant factor in creating GBP selling pressure, since much of forex price action is generated by institutional activity, due to the sheer scale of their purchases and sales.

What Happens Next?

For now, fundamentals for GBP appear rather bleak despite high inflation, and COT data reflects this. However, there is a chance that this hyperinflation in the UK could eventually force the BoE’s hand, prompting them to eventually lean into hawkishness to prevent catastrophic overheating. While this pivot could be around the corner, along with newfound GBP bullish momentum, traders would be wise to not assume this is the case until there are clear signs from the BoE. Unless this happens, GBP seems primed for continued selling.  

Best Pairs to Trade

While GBPUSD has received a ‘strong sell’ signal from the EdgeFinder, an A1 Trading tool for supplemental trading analysis, there are many other GBP pairs potentially worth trading too. Such pairs include GBPCAD, which likewise receives a ‘strong sell’ signal, as well as GBPAUD and GBPNZD, which both receive ‘sell’ signals. Along with GBPUSD, these four pairs all rank in the EdgeFinder’s top eight pairs worth selling.

Key Takeaways

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