Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPJPY, NZDJPY, XAUUSD, GBPUSD (27-02 October 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending October 2nd, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPJPY, NZDJPY, XAUUSD & GBPUSD.

GBP/JPY

Looking at the daily chart, we can see price has been moving in an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows. Looking back to last weeks movements, we can see price has broken through the original channel (dark) but is still inside another possible channel (grey), which still classes as valid as it has kept above the previous low. Looking for possible rejection of the current zone and looking for a move past previous highs above 144.000.

NZD/JPY

Looking at this daily chart, price is moving in a sideways consolidation zone. Price isn't able to break the trend to form either new highs or lows. Price is currently at the support level of this ranging market. Looking at the red highlighted circle, we saw price form a bullish hammer candle followed by a shooting star before reversing and making a move to the upside. We currently have the same formation showing, suggesting a possible repeated move to the upside again.

XAU/USD

Gold dumped and completed the symmetrical triangle break to the downside. It will be interesting to see how price reacts to this level it is currently at, whether we see a continued downwards move to lower supports or if we see a continued bullish move to 2000+.

GBP/USD

Similarly to GJ, we can see this market moving in a clear ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows successfully. Price is now in my interest zone at 1.273; I'm now expecting a move to the upside, continuing this channel and holding over the long-term. We are currently seeing 3 Doji candles; however, I am still expecting price to increase.

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EU struggles to pass 1.2000s as US markets fall from overvalued prices in the stock market. The pair is back in a support zone showing that price wants to go lower. A break in that support zone (which is a common pattern we see in a couple other pairs) would be a sign that we are in for continued downtrend.

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GU comes back for a second test on support without making a promising rally on the daily chart. GU has very strong support on the daily chart with June support and the 200 DMA. A bounce would seem likely, however, a break would be very bearish for the pair that's been running up since March.

AUDNZD falls to another low as it comes up to resistance. Key support is not very clear on the daily chart except for the 200 DMA way down at around 1.6000s. Gold continues to fall as well which is not good for the Aussie.

Gold now breaks through support, and a close below it would be more bearish for this metal. No clear support lies on the daily chart until the 200 DMA as well. A short term bearish bias is definitely viable for gold, but only because USD rises in times of panic or crisis. USD will continue to rise as markets fall, but that will not last over the long term in my opinion. For reasons stated in the other articles I've written, USD will fall again due to the immense amount of money printing we saw earlier this year with inflation rising. Gold also tends to outperform the markets and is less volatile. This pair is definitely a safer place to put your money.

Before I continue, do you see a pattern here? All these pairs are dropping, but why? What all these pairs have in common is their correlation to US equities. When the US market falls, these pairs drop as well. When the market saw its largest bull market in history, so did these pairs.

After creating lower lows on the daily chart, the market continued to sell off hard as soon as it opened this morning. SPX500 is currently hovering on support, but key support lies on the 200 DMA. If price comes down here, we will definitely see a bounce, but the question is: will it be enough for another bull rally? The market historically uses that moving average as a place to long again, but uncertainties with the election, coronavirus vaccine, cases rising again, lack of stimulus, inflation, suffering economy, etc. is aligning for a fearful market. After a season of greed, fear steps in and takes over market sentiment. With September being a month of selling also contributes to bearish sentiment. This is because the months before are usually high-profit periods for investors.

Regardless of the fear taking place, I think this downside movement is healthy for our market. A correction like this was a long time coming, but the bulls wouldn't let it drop. What we're seeing is just a big flush out of stocks so the market can find a balance at 'reasonable' prices for investors to find more attractive. If you plan on investing or putting some money in to the market now, the best thing to do is to dip your toes in. Don't be swayed one way or the other, just be ready to hold whatever you have for the long run. With a small amount of your portfolio in the market or major pairs, you can always long again if prices continues to work against you.

Remember, this is not a time to panic like most sellers. Keep a cool head and trade on! With proper risk management, there is nothing to worry about; especially in the long run. Stay safe and trade safe.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Last week was rough for the market as the S&P and Nasdaq draw lower lows on the daily chart. The Dow Jones Industrial was the only index to look in the best shape as tech continues to fall under pressure.

NAS100 on the daily

The main drivers for the market, which have been carrying pairs like GBPUSD and EURUSD, are tech stocks. In order to see a rebound in US indices and those major pairs would be for FAANG to have a good week, which might be the case. One factor to consider for Monday morning is the sentiment around Battery Day.

Tesla's Battery Day

This Tuesday will provide further insight on the development and advancements Tesla has made for their battery. The company is hyping up the news around the event as the EV maker will announce their new "million mile battery". This would be a huge breakthrough for Tesla and its stock, but will it be enough to push the markets and major USD pair up?

What to consider

A Barron's article analysts sounds uncertain for Tesla's rebound. He holds a price target of $272 a share which is nearly half of what the stock is worth now. However, quoted from the article, the author states that, "Anything below $100 per kilowatt hour, along with a credible plan to get there, should be a win for Tesla shareholders." Other analysts mentioned in the article provide a more generous PT in the $300s.

On top of this, COVID cases are rising back again as worldwide and US cases reach new heights. Profit-taking is another factor after the bull rally. The upside of investing now is very minimal considering the unlikeliness of reach all time highs again. As investors take their money off the table, the bigger question remains where those profits go back in to. Interest may move from heavy tech investments to dividend stocks. Portfolios may lessen the stake in the market overall. Next week will definitely be interesting for the market.

Conclusion

From a macro perspective, I'm looking at what could happen over time. I am also writing at the time of the futures market opening. Futures are dropping early on, and already down 14 points for the SPX500, but a lot can change over night and throughout the week. Tesla's rebound from lows shows investors are excited about the battery day report, but overall demand for stocks seems to be getting weaker. With analysts expecting tech to correct further, this week may be volatile.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDCHF, GBPUSD, AUDNZD, XAUUSD (20-25 September 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending September 25th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDCHF, GBPUSD, AUDNZD & XAUUSD.

USD/CHF

Zooming out, we can see price is travelling in a strong downtrend. However, since September, we saw price has been failing to create new lows, and instead, price is now forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is already near the apex point, expecting a breakout then retest this week. I'll only take a position once I see price action confirmations of a rejection to the trend line.

GBP/USD

Looking at the daily timeframe, we can see this substantial ascending channel which price has been travelling in since April. Price has been forming higher highs and higher lows, and the pound as an economy, has been able to recover from the massive drop caused by Covid19 nicely. Zooming in, we can see that currently, price is forming a bearish flag pattern on the H4 timeframe and is now awaiting its breakout. I'm expecting price to complete this chart pattern move and reach 1.27 level before reversing and continuing the ascending channel by making a move to the upside.

AUD/NZD

We can see this large rising wedge pattern formed here on the daily timeframe, which price was able to break out of in the past week. I'm waiting for price to now retest the support structure, reject it, so treat it as resistance before continuing a move to the downside and completing this chart pattern.

XAU/USD

I've been sharing this symmetrical triangle pattern on Gold for the past 2/3 weeks now. Price is currently at the apex point of this pattern and I'm expecting price to breakout anytime this week. Once we see price break out of this structure I'll be waiting for a retest and then waiting for price action confirmations of a rejection and a continued move to the desired direction before taking any positions on this pair.

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GBP/USD

GU broke a long term upward trend line on the daily and 4H charts which dipped price below key support. With poor Brexit news and an uncertain US economy, the pair is stuck near a decision point. The pair has been climbing for months after the crash in March, but now faces heavy resistance. Bad retail sales reports on USD is probably what's causing this rally up to resistance, but my overall sentiment remains bearish, and a possible future lower low will come out of this on the 4H chart.

Indices will have a volatile day as the Fed chairman is set to speak at 2:30 EST with FOMC economic projections at 2:00. The SPX still hovers below resistance on the 4H chart after its steep decline starting from 2 weeks ago. Today will provide further insight on the market's direction from now up until the election. The 200 SMA on the 4H chart suggests that price is very uncertain on where to go. It seems to be taking turns stabilizing just under or over the moving average as investors wait for the FOMC projections. I remain bearish for the week unless price breaks over that resistance level around 3430s.

After breaking out of former wedge, gold makes higher lows on the 4H chart and hovers around the 200 SMA. In the long run, gold outperforms the benchmarks, but still dips a little with each market retracement in the short run. Big money and analysts think that this metal has the potential to climb as US economy and USD decline. I remain bullish on this metal and believe that a test at 1990s would be likely in the next few weeks. However, poor US economic data could hinder the stock market which could adversely affect gold. The dips are not as momentous and recoveries outperform indices.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Have you ever started one of your trading sessions by jumping into a trade as soon as you open your charts? 

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I see this from traders all the time mainly new traders who aren't experienced. For many, it is these trades that end up being rushed, forced and ultimately being the type of trades they later come to regret and have a to take a big loss, especially when combined with ignorance or disbelief.

It's almost as if they're making up for the lost time between the end of their last trading session and this one. Revenge trading for missed opportunities they weren't even around for and so now they rush trades to feel the excitement of having a trade placed. 

I think, to a certain extent, we are all guilty of doing this from time to time - or at least we would be, but the thing that stops some people from making it a reoccurring theme are the routines, habits and principles that are firmly in place to help instil better trading habits which lead to profitable traders. 

This doesn't just occur in trading either; it's also a factor in other areas of our lives.

How many times have you rushed a decision in your life that you have later come to regret? Situations you would have avoided if you had taken the time to think things over fully. 

Well, it's the same thing for trading.

By setting simple routines, habits or principles for all essential aspects of our trading, we can prepare ourselves mentally and physically, giving us an advantage in critical moments.

Don't Over Complicate It.

As humans, we tend to over-complicate things. But what results if you over-complicate a morning routine? It might work well for a few days and feel great, but it will soon become a chore and be challenging to sustain before eventually being abandoned.

Instead, keep things manageable. Find a few things that nicely slot into your trading routine That can be replicated. Things that don't ultimately take you in a different direction but subtly shift your mind, body and resources towards where they need to be to best prepare yourself for a successful day of learning and observing the markets.

Likewise remember, a good daily routine starts the night before. How you fix yourself for the next day and the time you go to bed will be significant parts of your overall performance.

Of course, if you can keep up the basics, you can add more things overtime to make it even better, and before long it may be something more difficult if that's what's right for you - but it will be in a flexible way to keep you on track with a system that is manageable.

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After the steepest drop in US equities in history back in February, the stock market rebounded 63% and passed all-time highs from pre-crash levels. With an economy that was once booming turned into a recession, but the market did not seem to care from the belief that the Fed would keep money flowing in and the banks, during a period of almost 0% interest rates, had nowhere to put their money except in the stock market. Led by tech, the market climbed higher than ever before. USD pairs got crushed as GU and EU skyrocketed. Although the S&P has already dipped over 6% in the past week, it seems that the time to buy is not that attractive to investors. Here are some reasons why:

Illusion of the Fed

The Fed, with seemingly unprecedented power to fuel the equities market, made investors feel backed by the central bank to where the market had nowhere to go but up. There was an illusion that the Fed would never let stocks dip whatsoever, but that can only go so far. Fueling the market means printing money, which means increasing debt and inflation. If interest rates rise, the market will tumble as well, so interest rates need to stay low while the USD deals with inflation rising. Keep in mind that interest rates were already very low to begin with as Trump promised the best market we have ever seen. Once corona hit, interest rates only had so far it could go before it reaches 0% or negative. Yes, it is true that missing this most recent bull run killed bearish sentiment, but the bears aren't going to sleep forever. The Fed won't keep printing money forever, and at some point, it is not up to them where the market decides to go.

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The lack of new stimulus

Millions of Americans are still out of work, even more so than the great financial crisis of 2008. The unemployment numbers have been greater than 2008 for over 6 months now, and companies are still having lay-offs. Initial jobless claims data shows that the economy is not really recovering. We finally dipped below 1 million a few weeks ago, but the number each week has now been hovering in the 800,000s. The damage done is irreversible, and will take a long time to recover. Some analysts expect 8-10 years to be fully recovered. However, this will not necessarily affect the stock market and major pairs as much. The fact that Americans have been out of stimulus payments since early August shows the true colors of Congress as Democrats and Republicans continue to debate over which package is best. Now is not the time to push agendas or make Capital Hill look bad. It's time to put differences aside and help the people that need it.

Vaccine Drawbacks

News on vaccine has definitely been a major driver in the market's direction this year, but failures in the trials have brought fear back in to the minds of investors. After one patient in a voluntary vaccine trial came down with an unknown illness, the market freaked out and dipped hard with big tech leading the drop. The first step in this biological crisis is to find either a vaccine or efficient treatments to the virus and stabilize the number of cases. The number is still rising now that schools and universities are calling students back to campuses. The University of Georgia made business news when cases spiked over 1,400 positive tests. Sports teams are postponing games, some teams are not playing at all, and billions of dollars in revenue could be lost if cancellations continue.

What will tomorrow bring?

Tomorrow and next week will be interesting. Last week had moments of short-term uptrends forming before price got wiped out again. This pattern happened a lot last week. The bulls are losing momentum with all this crazy news coming out, and tomorrow may be grim. The market is following the same pattern from February: sell offs begin to bring price down before that big correction happened of -34% on the SPX500.

You can tell that the dips are becoming successfully more aggressive the higher we climb. The red candles are now overpowering the green and this recent dip has already wiped out 3 weeks of gains. The healthy thing would be for the market to correct making stock prices and value reach closer to equilibrium. Otherwise, we will see a bull market run completely by FOMO investors who want to make a quick buck on each swing up, and an inevitable correction farther in the future will be worse than if it were to do so now. Since the market has dipped back into correction territory, it's time for it to make a decision. Will we continue to buy in to the Fed-fueled rally, or will we let the market healthily correct so that it makes more sense to start investing again?
We will find out soon.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for AUDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD (13-18 September 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending September 18th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at AUDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD & XAUUSD.

AUD/CHF

Price is currently at this key level which was previously a resistance zone but we can now see price is treating it as support. We can see price has been respecting these levels, as looking at the arrows, we can see how many times price reversed after reaching these levels. Price is already showing rejection, as we can see a bullish hammer candle formed right before market close. Looking to possibly go long until 0.669, around 100 pips profit.

EUR/USD

This idea was posted last week, and I also sent this out to VIP members, we had TP1 hit already however I'm still holding to TP2. Price is currently at the support of the channel, still seeing some good rejection of the trendline, so I'm still expecting for price to continue the channel and make a move to the upside.

GBP/USD

Last week we saw price break through the support at 1.30, however zooming out into longer timeframes, we can see this strong ascending channel that price is currently moving in. Price is nearing the support of the channel, I'm looking out for price action confirmations of a rejection before going long on this pair, looking to catch the continued channel move.

XAU/USD

Looking at this symmetrical triangle pattern visible on Gold, we're still waiting on a clear break then retest before taking any desired position on this trade. I'm expecting XAU strength to continue and price retests previous highs at 2040.

DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVED VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, EURUSD, CADCHF, XAUUSD (07-11 September 2020)

Hey everyone! Welcome to this weeks forex forecast for the week ending September 11th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, EURUSD, CADCHF & XAUUSD.

GBP/USD

Price moving along nicely on this ascending trend line for a while now, price held support at 1.30 until price met the trend line and broke through resistance at 1.325. We can see price retesting structure and rejecting the trend line, treating the previous resistance as new support. Looking to go long and expecting a continued bullish movement

EUR/USD

This market is channeling along nicely here, forming higher highs and higher lows. On Friday, we saw a nice rejection of the channel's supportive trend line; however, I am waiting for clear confirmations this week as that could have just been NFP's manipulation. I'm expecting the Euro's strength to continue and fulfill this channel.

CAD/CHF

Again, we have another clear ascending channel moving along nicely, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently at the channel's resistance, and I'm looking for price action confirmations of a rejection to the resistance to go short for a continued channel move to the downside now.

XAU/USD

Seeing this symmetrical triangle pattern on Gold, and price is currently at the support of the triangle. Price is still far from the apex point to trade the breakout; however, we can trade the consolidation as price moves along towards the apex. Expecting price to show rejection as market opens then continues an upwards move towards the triangle's resistance.

DISCLAIMER

COMMENTS BY TRADERBART ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND ALL COMMENTS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE REGARDING THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT OF ANY KIND. PLEASE CONSULT WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION REGARDING ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS MENTIONED BY TRADERBART. BY COMMITTING TO ANY IDEAS SHOWN BY TRADERBART, YOU ASSUME FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR TRADING AND INVESTMENT RESULTS. TRADING OF ANY TYPE INVOLVED VERY HIGH RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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What's More Profitable: Day Trading vs Swing Trading?

You'll often see traders’ group themselves into one of these two categories, and they're either day traders or swing traders. Today we're here to consider which trading style better.

Day Trading

This style of trading, as the name suggests, involved opening multiple trades throughout a single day. Their objective is to consistently make medium-sized profits on numerous trades and cap losses on losing trades. This could be based on any analysis, whether that is purely technical or fundamental, or a mix of both. Day traders tend not to keep any positions open overnight or throughout the weekend.

The biggest reason to be a day trader is that it does not require a large account to start with. There are thousands of examples of people flipping 2 or 3-digit accounts into tens of thousands of dollars, if not more. Depending on if you possess the necessary traits of a successful day trader like patience and discipline, there is a strong possibility of chance to catching spectacular profits in a short space of time, like the ones swing traders take multiple days or weeks to catch.

Day trading is very time intensive. It requires tight, active trading on small timeframes such as the M30, M15, and M5. This can get a little difficult and stressful; however, it is also potentially very rewarding. It requires at least some degree of focus for the duration of the entire trading session.

Swing Trading

This trading style gets its name from traders aiming to benefit from the natural “swing” or a market. Rather than being focused on an exact time, these traders try to spot the beginning of a directional price movement, enter a trade, and hold on until the movement dies out. Swing traders keep their positions open for several days, or even weeks, if the “swing” keeps going that long.

The biggest lure to swing trading is that it targets people who do not want to spend their whole day scanning different charts looking for opportunities, but instead want to open a couple of positions per week and leave them to run until TP or SL. Full-time employees looking for an extra income source could be of interest to this style as it is not time-intrusive and can integrate with their work and leisure time. This is far less time and effort than day trading.

Swing trading is usually practiced on the H4 and Daily timeframe. This way, traders can see and try to catch the full “swing” of a market. They tend to have slightly wider stop losses, not to be falsely caught out of a trade that is going well.

Key Takeaways

  • Day-trading takes multiple trades per day and is primarily best for someone with a lot of spare time on their hands and has the diligence to observe multiple markets per day.
  • Swing Trading means taking a couple of trades per week, targeting to catch a full “swing” in a market, meaning they will be holding this position over a couple of days or weeks. This is best for someone who wants to treat trading as a “side-hustle” while still taking on full-time work or business.
  • Neither strategy is better than the other. Traders should choose the approach that works best for their skills, preferences, and lifestyle.

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