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4 Lessons from FOMC Yesterday

On June 15th, yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest Summary of Economic Projections, coupled with their corresponding statement. They revealed that the FOMC had decided to raise the Federal Funds Rate by a whopping 75 basis points (bps), to a range between 1.5-1.75%; such a hike has not been seen since 1994. Upon this news, and ostensibly in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference afterwards, financial markets saw a great deal of volatility. The US Dollar Index (DXY) made gains before closing lower at 104.66, while the Dow Jones oscillated between 30,000 and 31,000 before closing slightly higher. Today DXY continues to sink lower as the Dow abandons yesterday’s gains, falling over 800 points intraday, below 30,000. With this context in mind, let’s unpack this as we learn 4 lessons from FOMC yesterday.

1) The Fed is Becoming Increasingly Hawkish

The 75 bps rate hike decision was somewhat shocking. Though an increasing number of analysts began predicting it earlier this week (with speculation about a supposed leak occurring), such an aggressive measure is rare by contemporary standards. Powell made it clear the bold decision was taken in response to May’s hotter-than-expected inflation data, a disturbing 1% CPI increase month-over-month, or 8.6% year-over-year. Though this had not been the FOMC’s intention prior to this information, Powell emphasized that they are willing to roll with the punches and are open to further aggressive measures so long as inflation remains a serious threat.

While he did convey that they will be planning each hike on a case-by-case basis contingent upon inflation reports, he seemed to be signaling that the Fed’s responsibility for price stability must temporarily take precedent over currently maximizing employment, that it might be maximized long-term. This reflects the tone of the hawkish FOMC statement as well, factoring into the aforementioned economic projections, which anticipate increased unemployment, slower growth, and at least a 3% Federal Funds Rate by the end of 2022. While invariably negative news for the stock market, this is perhaps more ambiguous for USD than it appears at face-value, since a seemingly positive hawkish agenda may be undercut by worsening economic expectations.

2) Powell is Unpredictable (Even to Himself)

A generous interpretation of Powell’s decision and rationale is that he reacts swiftly to the latest information. A more cynical interpretation, which some of the questions at the press conference reflected, is that he is fickle and erratic, indicating one set of monetary policy plans before scrapping them for new ones. After all, today’s hawkish FOMC Chairman is nearly unrecognizable from the COVID-era Powell who was fixated on economic stimulus and near-zero interest rates.

However, to Powell’s credit, he is rather self-aware on this matter. He was transparent yesterday about the fact that he is entirely unsure to what extent each rate hike will cool the overheated US economy, particularly in light of pervasive supply chain issues and externalities due to the invasion of Ukraine. These are holistically unusual circumstances, and the FOMC is confined to conducting an ongoing sequence of interest rate experiments to eventually establish an inflation solution. Though honest, this degree of transparency has likely not helped the public or markets gain trust in the Federal Reserve, and thus may have contributed to today’s securities selloffs.

3) Leave Room for Baffling Market Reactions

Upon reading the statement and watching the press conference, the Fed’s intentions left little room for interpretation in my eyes, striking me as hawkish in a clear-cut fashion. While Powell did leave some wiggle room for less aggressive responses if future CPI reports reflect inflation slowing down, he made it quite clear that more 75 bps hikes are on the table, even likely. Taken altogether, all the information provided yesterday appeared overwhelmingly bullish for USD, and bearish for stocks. While yesterday saw another bout of odd buying pressure for stocks upon the rate hike news, today’s decline is unfortunately a more understandable return to form.

However, DXY is down over 1% today intraday as USD plummets in value against other currencies. Despite today’s news on higher-than-expected US unemployment claims, as well as worsening economic conditions according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, this USD outcome has been surprising. Although economic expectations in the US are becoming gradually bleaker as recession fears grow, I had imagined that demand for USD due to huge rate hikes and persistent inflation would have outweighed selling pressure. While I am still anticipating this to be the case, it is helpful to remember that there is no certainty in the markets, and every bullish or bearish signal must be taken with more than a grain of salt.

4) Technical Analysis Still Matters

One factor that likely aided selling pressure for USD was how much buying pressure it had encountered in the days leading up to FOMC, perhaps in anticipation of the suspected 75 bps hike. This bullish momentum reflected in USD pairs, many cases of which led price action to a key level of support or resistance. Touching these levels, in conjunction with how overbought USD was purely from the standpoint of various technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index and Keltner Channels, was a good recipe for price action reversing course.

This FOMC news is thus a great case study in (seemingly) straightforward fundamentals not exempting traders from having to conduct technical analysis. Even if foreign exchange markets favor USD bulls in the long run, bullish momentum will still almost certainly pause here and there while bears exhaust themselves. If this is the case, such a pause taking place at the intersection between key support/resistance levels and big central bank news was the perfect point to do so.

Key Takeaways

To refresh our understanding of trade setups, we created a playbook of different scenarios where technical analysis would help pinpoint entries and maximize profits. Here are a few theoretical plays we can practice and incorporate in our own trading experience.

Technical Analysis

Play #1 - Head and Shoulders Pattern

technical analysis

In this setup, a higher high succeeded a lower top which was then followed up by another lower top, forming a head and shoulders pattern. Such a pattern suggests that momentum to the upside is weak, and price could move to the downside. A support level allowed for price to bounce up from there. When price tested that support level again, it broke support and fell lower. The stop loss was set right above the two shoulders to give the trade room to move around, otherwise it could get stopped out early.

Play #2 - Retest on Support Level

technical analysis

When price is moving in an uptrend, it is more likely to see bounces from support levels after retracement. In this scenario, movement was slanted upward followed by a steeper climb which then retraced onto support. That level was a previous top, and it now serves as clean support and a good entry for going long. The stop loss was set below another level of support while the take profit placed above a previous high suggesting that the trader believes higher highs will be made.

Play #3 - Fib-based Setup

technical analysis

The Fibonacci retracement tool is another good indicator to use for technical analysis. The 0.618 is often referred to as a key zone. In this trade, price came all the way back from highs to a 61.8% retracement. The fib drawing starts at a bottom and goes up to where price peaks. These can be drawn on any kind of timeframe, short or long term. They can also be for upside or downside trades. The entry was placed at 61.8% with the stop loss set below that zone. The take profit level was at the next significant fib deviation zone.

Play #4 - Breakout

Another momentum-based setup is the breakout pattern. For a breakout to occur, usually a wedge pattern forms as price consolidates. Lower highs and higher lows form creating the wedge pattern's shape on the chart. In order to have a true breakout, price must close above or below the wedge which would indicate momentum to the upside or downside. The stop loss is placed below the wedge while the take profit is set well above the breakout point.

Play #5 - Flag Pattern

A flag pattern setup typically forms after a larger move to the upside. Price almost takes a break from the run up and starts consolidating, creating some sort of a wedge formation while not falling too far from the highs. It's called a flag pattern by the way it looks on the chart: there is a pole (movement upward) and the flag at the top (the wedge). When price nears the end of the wedge, price could break out and continue its move upward. The entry point is on the break point while the stop loss is somewhere below the wedge. The take profit is above the wedge.

This 1 Pair Worth Buying

While there are many currency pairs worth buying and selling in the foreign exchange markets, often pairs worth watching fly under the radar of retail traders. The EdgeFinder, an A1 Trading tool for traders aiming to holistically bolster their analysis skills, is helpful for identifying such opportunities for trade setups. As we wait for tomorrow afternoon’s big FOMC news, today we will look at a unique pair: USD/TRY, the US Dollar Turkish Lira pair. It is the only one that the EdgeFinder currently evaluates as being strongly worth buying, and we will discuss why. We will employ fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis as we assess this 1 pair worth buying.

Fundamental Analysis

In terms of fundamental analysis, data is disproportionately bullish. Although Turkey has experienced recent GDP growth while US GDP has contracted, the Turkish lira has suffered a near-collapse in value, with year-over-year inflation currently at an unbearable 73.5%. Although the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) currently has interest rates around 14%, this has not been enough to successfully mitigate economic suffering, as stagflation persists and unemployment hovers in the double digits. Tensions between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the CBRT regarding monetary policy have not helped. Thus, in this unusual and tragic case, substantially higher interest rates than the US is not a bearish signal for this pair.

Technical & Sentiment Analysis

This 1 Pair Worth Buying

In terms of technical analysis, the pair has been trending upwards for years. 2021 saw a staggering breakout to the upside, reaching a high over 18, then selling off to below 11 before price action found support and resumed trending upwards. Price action is currently testing these previous resistance zones again, with weighted moving averages functioning as support while a breakout to the upside seems likely. In terms of sentiment analysis, according to the latest COT data, over 75% of institutional traders are long on USD, while such information is not available for TRY. Meanwhile, only 25% of retail traders are long on this pair, another bullish signal. In light of the economic pessimism in Turkey due to the lira’s instability, sentiment for the pair seems strongly bullish.

Potential Trade Setups

The Edgefinder gives USD/TRY a score of 6, earning it the software’s only ‘strong buy’ signal. However, I hope everyone will nonetheless be careful trading this pair, as it has often been extraordinarily volatile. Using small positions and careful stop losses would be particularly wise here. In terms of possible points of entry, conservative traders could wait for tomorrow’s FOMC news as a potential bullish fundamental catalyst.

Even if the news unexpectedly means a surprisingly bearish turn for USD, you could still potentially use the new selling pressure to wait for a retest of the 16.5 zone as support. Given the unfortunate economic circumstances influencing TRY, even bearish news for USD would likely not have the same long-term implications for this pair as for others.

Key Takeaways

This morning saw demand for USD rapidly pick up steam as US inflation data came in hotter than expected. Month-over-month CPI had been forecast to rise by 0.7% in May; at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that it had increased by 1%, or 8.6% year-over-year, a forty-year high. Likewise, Core CPI (which excludes food and energy prices) was forecast to rise by 0.5% month-over-month, instead hitting 0.6%. On this news, the DXY is up 0.8% and has risen over the 104 level intraday, as EURUSD is down 1% and the S&P 500 is down nearly 3%. With this context in mind, let’s discuss 3 ways to capitalize on inflation now.

Trade Major Pairs

3 Ways to Capitalize on Inflation Now

This CPI news is a huge fundamental catalyst for USD pairs since it verifies that the US economy is indeed still overheating, validating further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This is very bullish for USD, which makes buying the USD against other currencies even more appealing. If traders are searching for optimal USD pairs to take positions in, a good place to start is by locating pairs where analysis leans in USD’s favor to the greatest degree possible.

Some such options include a) shorting GBPUSD and EURUSD, which receive -7 (‘strong sell’) and -5 (‘sell’) signals, respectively, from the EdgeFinder, and b) going long on USDJPY, which receives a 4 (‘buy’) EdgeFinder signal. Because USD experienced so much buying pressure this morning, conservative traders may want to find an opportune point of entry by conducting technical analysis, e.g., waiting for a pullback and retest of key support/resistance.

Buy XAUUSD

3 Ways to Capitalize on Inflation Now

Though admittedly a controversial opinion, I am waiting for an optimal point of entry to purchase gold against USD. XAUUSD experienced quite the selloff this morning before a startling recovery, jumping from a low of 1825 to hovering around 1855 at the time of writing this. This jump was seemingly prompted by finding support around the 1830 level, a clear zone of support on a 1-hour timeframe.

I interpret fundamentals being bullish for XAUUSD due to demand for the precious metal in several different industries and its historical status as a safe haven investment in times of economic crisis. There have been periods where gold’s rise in value does not correlate with USD depreciating in value, which is helpful to consider in cases like these. According to the latest COT data, institutional traders are similarly long on both USD (76%) and gold (73.56%). I am planning to purchase XAUUSD if price action retests the trendline depicted on the 1-day timeframe above, though this opportunity may not come if demand continues to grow quickly.

Invest in the Stock Market

3 Ways to Capitalize on Inflation Now

Though it may seem strange in the face of persisting hyperinflation and potential for recession, economic downturns and stock selloffs do present myriad buying opportunities for long-term investors. If you are not planning on retiring for decades, you can utilize dips in the stock market and indices to build wealth over time, assuming you are willing to sacrifice immediate results. For example, when the Dow plummets over 600 points like it has today, investors can seize these events as opportunities for cheap purchases that will yield returns years down the road.

If your investment portfolio keeps crashing in the meantime, this does not have to be discouraging since they are merely unrealized losses; they will likely grow in value through the decades if you are invested in index ETFs and other trustworthy funds. Any further selloffs present even more opportunities for regular, small purchases. (However, investing in individual stocks is a completely different story, and I personally believe that even the most skilled retail investors are not sufficiently equipped to handle the inherent risks involved.)

Key Takeaways

Why I Day Traded USDCHF

Price action for USD pairs was fascinating today as the DXY reflected bearish momentum that saw a low of nearly 102.15 intraday. This selloff was stopped at approximately 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time when eager buyers sent it soaring, eventually over the 103.3 level. Several factors were at play here, including important European Central Bank news and expectations for new US CPI data tomorrow. I took this opportunity to trade USDCHF this morning; it went well, and I entered and exited the trade in under an hour. Below I explore my process, and why I day traded USDCHF.

Fundamental Analysis

In many ways, the fundamentals favor CHF: Q1 GDP growth in Switzerland was positive unlike for the US, unemployment is 1.5% lower than in the US, and year-over-year inflation is gradually climbing. However, the Swiss National Bank currently has its key interest rate at -0.75%, compared to the Federal Reserve’s 1%, which involved a 50 basis point rate hike. On top of this, both CHF and USD are historically safe haven assets, and USD has encountered recent bearish data and increased chances at volatility due to upcoming US CPI data (perhaps indirectly through today’s ECB announcements as well). Thus, I decided I felt comfortable enough to go long on USDCHF as a day trade, but not confident enough to sit in it for too long.

Technical Analysis

I felt that there were enough technical indications here to warrant a brief long position. On the 1-hour timeframe, the price moved rapidly outside the Keltner Channel walls, and met significant support in two places: the 0.972 zone and the trendline pictured. I interpreted this bearish candlestick as a hasty reaction to meeting resistance around 0.98 (a reaction that could be short lived in light of potential for USD volatility). Thus, I entered at the 0.973 level, and took profit just above the 0.978 level, since I was not confident it could break through 0.98 resistance.

Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis also made me feel comfortable entering the position. According to A1 Trading’s EdgeFinder, recent COT data reveals 76% of institutional traders going long on USD, whereas just over 10% are going long on CHF. In contrast, less than 1/3 of retail traders are long on this pair. These are all incredibly bullish signs for USDCHF, making me feel confident in my purchase, especially as Switzerland grapples with neighboring eurozone issues and with today’s arguably banal ECB decision. However, given my aforementioned uncertainties about the pair’s fundamentals and mutual safe haven status, I still planned on an early exit.

Key Takeaways

Key Economic News Today

Most weekdays offer the release of a flurry of economic data that can influence price action in the financial markets. Due to the surplus of information available, it can be difficult to parse and locate which indicators are most helpful in terms of fundamental and sentiment analysis. Here, we consider key economic news today, which I will be keeping in mind for identifying fundamental catalysts, preparing for future volatility, and devising trade setups.

Euro Area: Monetary Policy Statement & ECB Press Conference

This morning the European Central Bank (ECB) made plain their monetary policy intentions: they will be ending their quantitative easing program with the start of July and implementing an interest rate hike of 25 basis points that month as well, with another identical hike scheduled for September. This caused a great deal of volatility for EUR this morning, with buying pressure spiking before quickly being overtaken by bearish momentum. This is likely because, despite a change in tune from the ever-dovish ECB, the markets had already anticipated these plans, and the ECB’s key rate will remain in the negative even after July’s hike.

United States: Unemployment Claims & Natural Gas Storage

The past week saw 229,000 American workers file for unemployment claims, while only 205,000 claims had been forecast. An additional 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas was held in US storage this past week as well. Both data suggest a slowing US economy with more unemployment and less consumer spending, which is bearish news for USD. However, this information is merely the prelude for tomorrow’s CPI and Core CPI data month-over-month, expected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. With economic health teetering in response to the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards hawkishness, tomorrow’s inflation data may be a significant fork in the road for USD. The DXY is currently surging today, clearing and then hovering around the 103 level intraday.

Canada: BOC Financial System Review

This morning the Bank of Canada (BOC) released their annual Financial System Review, in which they analyze Canada’s economic wellbeing and any significant threats they are wary of. They revealed particular concern about the effect of rate hikes on the global economy, as well as its effect on those in Canada contending with high household debt and a hot housing market. While they covered a broad variety of topics including cybersecurity and climate strategy, I personally interpreted the report as being rather dovish, though they did express less concern about the effect of rate hikes on Canada’s non-financial businesses. This may have prompted some of the CAD bearish momentum we saw this morning.

China: CPI (year-over-year)

Due tonight from the National Bureau of Statistics of China at 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time, China’s CPI is expected to hit 2.2% year-over-year, though CPI data from the past two months have surpassed forecasts. Considering yesterday’s report on China’s monthly trade balance exceeded forecasts by over $20 billion, it seems plausible that tonight’s CPI data will likewise reflect a booming economy. Though CNY functions somewhat differently than other currencies due to more centralized control of its value and limited access for traders and investors, it is helpful to monitor China’s economy as its performance has global implications regarding trade imbalances and industrial competition.

Key Takeaways

Important Economic News Today

Most weekdays offer the release of a flurry of economic data that can influence price action in the financial markets. Due to the surplus of information available, it can be difficult to parse and locate which indicators are most helpful in terms of fundamental and sentiment analysis. Here, we explore a selection of important economic news today, which can be helpful for identifying fundamental catalysts, prepare for future volatility, and devise trade setups.

Japan: Economy Watchers Sentiment

Released by Japan’s Cabinet Office at 1 a.m. Eastern Time, this indicator gauges economic sentiment in terms of consumer spending by surveying a few thousand service workers in Japan’s economy. Anything over a score of 50 indicates economic optimism; the forecast had been 51.9, but the actual report was 54. This would usually indicate strength for JPY, as it could help push the Bank of Japan towards tightening monetary policy. However, considering their willingness to continue extreme dovishness, I interpret this as a bearish signal for JPY, since the BOJ may feel further emboldened by economic optimism to extend low interest rates.

Euro Area: Final Employment Change & Revised GDP (both q/q)

Released at 5 a.m. Eastern Time, both metrics of economic health were better than previously expected: employment was forecast to increase by 0.5% and ended up increasing by 0.6%, while GDP growth also clocked in at 0.6%, double the percentage expected. These especially contribute to a bullish case for the EUR, since the Euro Area is clearly dealing with an overheated economy, and the European Central Bank seems primed to potentially act and pivot into gradual hawkishness. We will be hearing from the ECB tomorrow.

United States: Final Wholesale Inventories (m/m) & Crude Oil Inventories

Released at 10 and 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time, respectively, these two indicators may showcase some signs of a slowing US economy. According to the Census Bureau, there was a 2.2% increase in the value of goods in stock for wholesalers, where only 2.1% was expected. This reveals supply of such goods outpacing demand in an unexpected fashion. Likewise, according to the Energy Information Administration, the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms increased by 2 million, whereas a change of -2.6 million had been expected. With crude oil already at staggering price levels, this indication of slowing demand has further implications throughout the US economy, perhaps as a proxy for consumer spending elsewhere. This is bearish news for USD.

China: USD-Denominated Trade Balance

Tentatively due today, the CGAC will be releasing data on China’s trade balance, which is frequently a surplus to some degree. While China is forecast to have net exported $58 billion, it could exceed expectations like prior months, despite China’s recent zero-COVID policy measures which limited economic activity. Not only do these growing margins signal CNY strength and continued economic growth for China, they also ostensibly indicate lower growth expectations for trade partners and economic competitors, such as the US, due to corresponding trade deficits. This information will come on the heels of lowered global economic growth forecasts from the World Bank and the OECD.

Key Takeaways

While there are many currency pairs worth buying and selling in the foreign exchange markets, many pairs worth watching fly under the radar of retail traders, particularly minor pairs. The EdgeFinder, an A1 Trading tool for traders aiming to holistically bolster their analysis skills, is helpful for identifying such opportunities for trade setups. Today we will look at which three pairs the EdgeFinder currently evaluates as most worth selling, and why. We will employ fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis as we explore 3 pairs worth selling now.

GBP/CAD

3 Pairs Worth Selling Now

In terms of fundamentals, CAD has a narrow, but important, lead over GBP. While the UK has an unemployment rate 1.5% lower than Canada’s, the Bank of England has been slower to respond to their inflation threat than the Bank of Canada, lagging 0.5% behind regarding benchmark interest rates. Q1 GDP growth in both countries has been identical, percentagewise. In terms of technical analysis, we have seen a steep downtrend for over three months, plummeting from nearly 1.74 to 1.58, with 1.58 being a historic support zone. Considering the seasonality bias in CAD’s favor (historically performing well this month), we may well see a breakout to the downside, followed by a retest of 1.58 as resistance and continued bearish momentum. Regarding sentiment analysis, double the percentage of institutional traders long on GBP are long on CAD, and retail traders are strongly bullish on the pair, both bearish signals. Thus, this pair has earned a -6 rating from the EdgeFinder, a strong sell signal.

GBP/NZD

3 Pairs Worth Selling Now

Regarding fundamentals, NZD is far ahead of GBP. New Zealand has an unemployment rate 0.5% lower than the UK’s, and the Bank of England has been far slower to respond to their inflation threat than New Zealand’s Reserve Bank, leaving their benchmark interest rate a full 1% lower. New Zealand’s Q1 GDP growth was a whopping 2.2% greater than the UK’s as well. In terms of technical analysis, we are seeing a retest of resistance in the form of a steep downtrend since February 2022, with higher lows being formed as well. Considering the seasonality bias in NZD’s favor, we may well see a bearish continuation, making this retest a potential selling opportunity. In terms of sentiment analysis, retail traders are fairly divided on the pair, while institutional traders are similarly shorting both currencies, offering little information on the pair. Taken altogether, GBP/NZD has earned a -7 rating from the EdgeFinder, a strong sell signal.

EUR/CAD

3 Pairs Worth Selling Now

Regarding fundamentals, CAD is far sturdier than EUR. Canada’s unemployment rate is 1.6% lower than in the Euro Area, and the Bank of Canada has been far more aggressive than the European Central Bank regarding rate hikes, with their benchmark interest rate currently 1.5% higher. (This may change as the ECB is contemplating a more hawkish rate hike strategy.) Canada’s Q1 GDP growth was approximately 0.5% greater than the Euro Area’s as well. In terms of technical analysis, there has been a strong downtrend since summer of 2020, with the 1.34 support level recently being retested rapidly. Although seasonality bias weighs in EUR’s favor, the pair appears ripe for a breakout to the downside. In terms of sentiment analysis, institutional traders are somewhat divided on the pair, while retail traders are bullish, a bearish signal. Taken altogether, this pair has earned a -6 rating from the EdgeFinder, a strong sell signal.

Key Takeaways

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3 Lies Traders Should Avoid Today

One of the things that makes retail trading unique as a pastime, or even a career, is the degree of honesty and self-reflection it requires. There are many jobs that offer some consistent semblance of leeway when it comes to making mistakes and honing a skill set, but trading is not one of them. No trader can negotiate a raise with the markets or hope for the markets to recognize their hard work; if anyone is not careful with their expectations and risk management, even just one losing trade can be catastrophic. Hence, why truthfulness matters in the world of retail trading: it often spells the difference between passive income and financial ruin. With that in mind, let’s explore 3 lies traders should avoid today.

“My strategy doesn’t need stop losses”

Regardless of a trader’s win rate, every trustworthy strategy incorporates stop losses to some meaningful degree. This is because it is as near certain as statistically possible that unmitigated risk in trading will eventually have terrible consequences. Even if a strategy somehow achieved a win rate over 95% with consistent incremental gains, unchecked risk would still be present in every trade, resulting in a handful of losses that could easily erase all prior profits in a fraction of the time (I know this from personal experience). Stop losses, especially trailing ones, are thus an indispensable tool for traders when it comes to safeguarding against inevitable losses and making their wins count in the long run.

“I will compound my account so fast”

Building a large trading account is a long, gradual process that requires plenty of discipline and patience. Because of this, if a retail trader approaches entering and exiting positions through the lens of a get-rich-quick scheme, they are bound to become disappointed and discouraged, and likely lose money along the way due to over-leveraging and impulsive trading. Thus, it is important for traders to generate realistic expectations for themselves, and not take success for granted. Some ways to practice this include a) thoroughly backtesting any strategies of choice, b) avoiding trading out of financial desperation, and c) recognizing that your value as a person has nothing to do with your account’s performance.

“Fundamentals don’t really matter”

Technical analysis is a wonderful tool for every trader to have equipped, and there are myriad technical indicators worth exploring and adding to any strategy. Likewise, sentiment analysis is valuable as well, since anticipating buying and selling pressure is at the heart of trading as a discipline. However, even with these two crucial forms of analysis at our disposal, it must never be taken for granted that traders are buying and selling real securities.

In a new age of gamification and excessive speculation fueling price action volatility in the markets, it can become easy to believe, even subconsciously, that trading is reducible to a worldwide chart-reading game. Therefore, it’s possible for many traders to miss out on significant fundamental catalysts and opportune points of entry and exit, because it is easy to forget that we are trading in real markets that are shaped by concrete circumstances and events in our world. Thus, whether a trader is buying or selling stocks, currency pairs, or bonds, it is always wise to conduct fundamental analysis, whether that be monitoring macroeconomic data, business fundamentals, or other variables.

Key Takeaways

As a beginner trader it can be difficult to know which are the best currency pairs to trade. To help identify the best currency pairs to trade you need to understand that different markets have different behaviors. Some currency pairs tend to be highly volatile while others have low volatility. The volatility of the currency pair is important because it indicates the risk associate with that pair. Pairs with higher volatility are associated with high risk while pairs with low volatility are typically less risky.

High Volatility Currency Pairs

Often times, new traders gravitate to high volatility markets like gold because they seem more exciting. However, these are not the best currency pairs to trade and can be very dangerous for new traders. Traders who trade with high volatility can make a lot of money in a short period of time. But, just as you can make a lot of money trading with these currency pairs, you can also lose money just as fast (or even faster). Because of this, many new traders who attempt to trade with these currency pairs quickly drain their account.

Currency pairs to trade

As a new trader, we suggest avoiding these pairs altogether until you are confident in your strategy. There are a lot of things that could go wrong when you're learning how to trade and you want to avoid making mistakes on highly volatile currency pairs. Remember, our first goal as a trader is to protect our capital, don't risk draining your account trying to make money fast.

Popular High Volatility Pairs:

Low Volatility Currency Pairs

Currency pairs with low volatility are pairs that move less aggressively and are more forgiving. These types of currency pairs are much more suitable for newer traders. This is because when a new trader makes a mistake, which will inevitably happen throughout the learning process, it will not drain their account. For example, a trade on a currency pair like EURUSD which goes against you may put you down 30 pips in a span of 5 hours. While in that same time frame, a GBPJPY trade that goes against you may put you down 120 pips.

Currency pairs to trade
USDCHF is a low volatility currency pair which makes it a great pair for new traders to trade.

Popular Low Volatility Pairs:

We recommend that newer traders should stick with low volatility pairs like EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, and AUDCHF. Use these pairs to help get your feet wet and test your strategy before jumping into higher volatile markets. To be even more cautious, we recommend starting on a demo account and not to put your hard earned money on the line until you have a strategy behind what you are doing.

Forex Trading Basics: What are the Best Currency Pairs to Trade?

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