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China, The Crypto Crackdown Continues

7/6/2021

The Chinese government came after a chip making company and shut them down as their policies towards crypto mining and trading is banned in their country. They have also told businesses that they cannot discuss/advertise crypto in any way or they will risk getting shut down as well. Their claim towards the harsh prohibition is that mining is a serious threat to climate change, although China already accounted for nearly 30% of the world's pollution before crypto mining becoming prominent.

Our outlook

Cryptocurrencies and the markets in which they reside can either catch an immense amount of traction for some time or lose most of its trading volume when the hype is directed elsewhere. This cycle usually repeats as we have seen price go from being worth a few hundred dollars in 2017 to over $15,000, then down to a few thousand dollars, before running up to $64,000s... the cycle of money flow has been pretty repetitive over the years. During this most recent time of stagnation in bitcoin and the rest of the altcoin market, institutions have been building their positions, according to COT. This bearishness over China seems to only be temporary as businesses and miners figure out where to go next and how to approach new opportunities. Plus, the potential upside for bitcoin's next move up is far greater than what you could risk. So, a small risk for a big payout seems to be the best option for the digital assets.

BTCUSD institutional positions that are net long

Trade Setups

BTCUSD

Bitcoin is still clinging to a supportive trend line on the 4H timeframe as it looks like it might create a higher low inside the consolidation zone. A long wick on the most recent candle is a good sign, and a close with that rejection from the lows could move the coin above consolidation and to resistance around $35,700s.

ETHUSD

Ethereum is the only pair that looks strong today as price has climbed over 5% on the day. The recent break in resistance has turned the $2170s into a nice support zone should price retrace. Candle behavior has been pretty obedient to the rising trend line on this timeframe which is a good sign for those looking or are already long. Two key resistance levels above are around $2,632 and $2,830.

MKRUSD

MKRUSD also showing some good setups on the 4H. Price broke above resistance, topped out and retraced back to the new support. The trend since late June is a steep stair-like uptrend that looks like can continue off this recent support level around the $2,800s.

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