Ticker tape by TradingView

December 6, 2020

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, XAUUSD (06-11 December 2020)

Bart Kurek

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 11th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.


I've been pointing out this long-term ascending channel that's been formed since the Covid-19 crash back in March which inside the channel has formed a rising wedge pattern. Looking at price action, Friday closed off with a shooting star candle suggesting a possible bearish move ahead as bulls were not able to push and hold price above the previous higher high in the channel. Switching to the H4 timeframe, since October price has been consolidating and breaking through key levels in the market. For example, notice how 1.315 was a resistance level, then once it was broken and price retested it, it became new support. The same principle happened with 1.328, it was seen as clear resistance; however, once it was broken, it was treated as further support. And now finally we've got the same thing going on with resistance at 1.34 where it was seen as clear resistance however we saw price break this level last week and is also now pretty much retesting this level. I'm hoping we can see price reject this level in the week ahead and confirm it as new support, pushing price higher in this ascending channel.


We've just seen price break through a major support in this descending triangle pattern at 1.30. Price has also closed off for the week at a higher low of the ascending channel seen here. I think it's likely we could see price break through every support level that was formed from the channel. Looking at the economies of both currencies, we all know the Dollar is very weak at the moment, primarily due to the continued uproar in Coronavirus cases in the US now approaching 15M cases and 300K deaths. The Canadian Dollar on the other hand is looking a lot better, GDP for the third quarter printed at 8.9% and 40.5% annualised. Though it was a big improvement from the second quarter's GDP, it still missed expectations with market consensus at 47.6% and a minimum expectation of 43.1%. I'm looking for a bearish move on this pair, as oil prices are expected to increase in the next couple of months and unless we see a major breakthrough in the US risk outlook, weakness should continue to push the dollar lower.


Similarly to GU, price is also travelling in this ascending channel since the Covid crash and we've got this ascending triangle pattern formed. Price broke out of the 137.6 resistance, retested and is now consolidating at the 139.7 resistance formed after the breakout. I'm still looking for this chart pattern to make a full move to the upside and also make the next swing in the channel. Looking at fundamentals now, due to the likely Brexit-deal agreement, we should see the Pound gaining heaps of strength, and this will especially happen against overvalued and low-yielding currencies. The coronavirus and global economic outlook will remain heavily influential on the Yen, with the currency likely to once again see a renewed bid from the rising number of second waves and their implications for the global economy. As a whole the Yen so far is doing good to recover however I think we could only see price make the full move once we see the UK/EU Brexit talks conclude a deal agreement.


We've got this clean descending channel and price is now approaching the previous support at 1855 in the descending triangle pattern here after touching the channel's support and reversing to the upside. I think as of right now, it's very unclear as to what could happen next; we must wait to see how price reacts to this level, whether we see a clear rejection of this level this could suggest a bearish move however if we see a break of this level, then confirmed new support, we could see a bullish movement to the upside again and touch the channel's top. In addition to this though, when placing the Fib retracement level, seeing as this is a bullish flag pattern, we've had the third touch at the 78.6% level, so I'm expecting this pattern to be completed. Not only this, however, but we've also seen over the past year that every time price has approached or touched the 200MA, we've had a bullish move to the upside. In addition to this, as the dollar is weakening due to all the examples mentioned in the USDCAD fundamental explanation, and gold being a safe haven, is expected to rise in value, most probably pushing this pair more to the upside.

A1 Edgefinder

Take 40% off the Edge finder using code "READER"

want to see what we're trading?

Join The VIP Community!
Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
A1 Trading Podcast
How These Factors Will Impact Oil Now

Oil prices have surged this year and have recently pulled back from the highs. However, there are some factors right now that will heavily influence the price of commodities in the long term. And it's important that we go over them so when the time comes, we'll have a better understanding of how to trade […]

Read More
We Like These Pairs For Next Week

As this week comes to a close, we are looking ahead at future setups that could be some of the best opportunities for the next several trading sessions. Here are some pairs for next week that we are looking at. EUR/JPY Recent data has shown a slow down in the German manufacturing sector. With European […]

Read More
More Downside On The SPX500 After This?

When it comes to testimonies, it's all in how you say it. Jerome Powell has to be very particular in the way he makes his statements and answers the ensuing questions. Here is what might be in store for the market in the coming days and weeks, and whether or not there will be more […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
homescreensmartphone linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram