A1 Trading Company

September 7, 2023

Dollar Pairs After Jobless Claims

Frank Cabibi

Unemployment claims came out this morning lower than expected. The initial reaction caused a strong dollar with falling stocks and gold prices. Here's a look at some dollar pairs from the EdgeFinder and their setups:

EdgeFinder Analysis

EU is still at a strong bearish reading on the EdgeFinder as price nears a support level. The euro dropped yesterday after PMI numbers came in lower than expected, suggesting a slowdown in the Euro-area economy. If price comes down to test the 1.066s, it could find support. There is also resistance around the falling trend line on the 1D timeframe.

Unemployment claims came out lower than expected, suggesting continued dollar strength. The combination of higher NFP last Friday and lower claims today is starting to clear up the fog around risk on or off sentiment.

Gold broke and closed under a support level on the 1D timeframe. After today's job numbers, gold might continue to push lower towards the lows in the $1880s. The trend is still bearish overall, and it will likely remain so unless the trend line can get broken.

Price is at a decision point right now, and if a candle breaks lower, it could come down to the lows again. Smart money is buying gold this week, however. Net positions on the non-commercial side are still pointing to the long side, so institutions could be buying the dip on this metal.

GBPUSD is now a -8 on the EdgeFinder, the strongest bearish reading today. Recently, the UK city of Birmingham declared bankruptcy as the rise in interest rates is causing more pain to the British economy. The BoE's main goal is still focused on inflation, and until then, the economy may have to suffer in the meantime.

Confusingly enough, smart money are both short the USD and GBP this week. Retail likes the pound more than the dollar right now, and this is likely due to the pair's performance over the past few months. September also happens to be the most bearish month on a 10 year average, and the trend reading points to lower levels as well.

Retail Spotlight

It's clear that retail is short the dollar and heavily long risk-on pairs. Gold is still looking mixed while oil is mostly short. One noticeable change is that USDCHF is no longer the most longed pair on the EF anymore, although price is now starting to move higher.

Smart Money Spotlight

Taking a look at positional sentiment on the Smart Money Tracker, GBPUSD is losing its bullish bias. Regardless of the two currencies being sold this week, it appears they're selling the pound at a quicker rate than the dollar.

Fundamental Spotlight

With UK and US's unemployment rising, it's still not enough to sway investors' opinions on their central banks. Expectations of higher interest rates over time are still very much at the forefront of their minds. Even if both banks decide not to hike, the rates will likely remain this high for some time.

A1 Edgefinder

AI- Generated Trading Setups
AI-generated bullish/bearish bias setups on forex currencies, gold, & indices.

Discount code: 'READER'

Access Now


Trading Plan Template
Struggling to build a successful trading plan? Download our template to get started today!
Yields Hold Steady After GDP

GDP numbers came in lower than expected in the US, marking the third straight drop in economic output. This is usually good news for the stock market indices and gold, however, bond yields continue to hold up above 5.1%. Here are some potential trade setups for both dollar and index longs depending on how the […]

Read More
USOil Breaks Through the Highs! (+$2646.85)

Hi, I’m Nick! I am the founder of A1 Trading, market analyst, YouTuber, and creator of the EdgeFinder software tool. I caught a huge winner on USoil with the help of the EdgeFinder! In this article, I’ll walk you through my thought process behind the trade and how I found this crazy runner! Finding My […]

Read More
Surprising Risk-Off Signal From the EdgeFinder

Last Friday's report showed a significant change in global market sentiment from smart money. What COT signaled has turned ultra-risk-off for traders who have been hoping for Fed fears to subside. This news could spark up worries about higher interest rates for the long term. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is now a -12 on the EdgeFinder […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
homesmartphonelaptop-phonemenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram