A1 Trading Company

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September 30, 2022

Even More Bullish USD News

Michael J. Donoghue
Even More Bullish USD News

This morning at 8:30 am Eastern Time, the United States’ Bureau of Economic Analysis released even more bullish USD news. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in prices for consumers (excluding volatile food and energy prices), rose more than expected month-over-month. A 0.5% increase was expected for August, with 0.6% being the result today; while a 0.1% margin may not seem incredibly significant at face value, it is especially noteworthy because this is the Federal Reserve’s favorite measurement of inflation. This will likely further embolden the Fed in their assumption that more interest rate hikes are necessary to cool a severely overheated US economy.

Best Pairs to Trade

The following pairs are ranked by the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s market scanner tool that provides supplemental analysis, as optimal pairs to watch for those who are bullish on USD. They are listed below with their respective ratings and biases, as well as some additional fundamental and technical analysis.

1) EUR/USD (Receives a -6, or ‘Strong Sell’ Signal)

Even More Bullish USD News
Even More Bullish USD News

As can be seen in the line items given for the EdgeFinder score summary above, the US Dollar beats the Euro in all listed categories except retail sentiment and GDP growth, with GDP growth being the Euro's only advantage. Sadly, this will likely not last long due to Europe's energy crisis, which has been exacerbated by this week's mysterious Nord Stream pipeline damage. This pair is on the verge of retesting both trendline and parity resistance, which could prompt a continuation of the downtrend.

2) GBP/USD (Receives a -5, or ‘Sell’ Signal)

Even More Bullish USD News
Even More Bullish USD News

Most of the categories listed above favor USD, while the Pound does have the upper hand in both GDP growth and unemployment. However, these two apparent victories for GBP are not what they seem, as the launching of UK Prime Minister Truss' growth-focused fiscal stimulus ambitions prompted a historic near-crash of the Pound earlier this week. Coupled with the Bank of England's subsequent dovish intervention and recent lukewarm efforts to mitigate inflation, there is little favoring GBP in terms of fundamentals. As with EUR/USD, a retest of resistance seems likely before the downtrend resumes.

3) USD/TRY (Receives a 5, or ‘Buy’ Signal)

Even More Bullish USD News
Even More Bullish USD News

All listed categories besides GDP growth and interest rate divergence favor USD. While these two factors favoring the Lira seem particularly significant, these line items are recontextualized in light of the tragic stagflation and hyperinflation that Turkey is contending with. With an astonishing 80% annual inflation rate, and unemployment over 10%, a 12% interest rate and recent positive Turkish GDP growth are sadly not enough to stop the Lira's crisis from transpiring. It appears we may see a breakout to the upside for this pair, followed by a potential retest of the 18.5 level as support.

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DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
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