Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 12th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD & XAUUSD.
We've recently seen price break out from this long-term descending channel and is currently forming a new uptrend. I'm focusing on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5 as areas of potential entries to go long if you do decide to enter this pair. Price is likely to retest at least one of these OB's and reverse, and most likely it could be the H4 OB as it's also at the same level of previous resistance in the channel and the previous LH.
We've got this overall long-term ascending channel with a rising wedge printed from the H4 timeframe. I've been talking about this huge Weekly-OB, which is confirmed that price has collected all orders from. The market closed off for the week sitting around the 100% mark which usually is a great sign for a potential sniper as we short the pair. However, on Thursday the BoE kept its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE stressed it did not wish to send any signal that it intended to set a negative bank rate at some point in the future, leading to GBP strength. It's hard to say whether or not this could continue pushing the markets higher here, however, going back to trading psychology, if everything is checked off, but something looks odd, stick to your trade management plan, and take the trade with very minimal risk.
Price is also in a long-term ascending channel with a rising wedge pattern. I was expecting price to drop back to the H4-OB at 1.35 however with the positive GBP news we got on the Official Bank Rate, this was a bit short-lived, and we see price once again join the consolidation zone between 1.364 and 1.375. Price could be making the next high in the channel; however, unless we see a clear break and retest and confirmed continued rejection of 1.375, my ideal entry still remains at the 1.35 zone.
We've got the overall bullish flag pattern here and three key zones of OB's. Looking at Gold's performance last week, as anticipated price did infact head down towards the Daily-OB at 1790 and is already making somewhat of a reversal at just over 200 pips in profit. Ideally, I would prefer to see price reach this zone again to go long; however, it's almost impossible to know if that will happen. Price is definitely on its way towards that Daily-OB at 1950, so I doubt that price can reach anywhere below 1775 unless we see a completely new structure built on this pair. Look out for how price reacts as it enters the H4-OB at 1825.
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