Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY & XAUUSD.
Price has recently broken out of this long-term descending channel and is now forming a new uptrend. I've got my eye on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5. Most trades will most likely go long at the trend line, but I think price will most likely fake-out lower to take out retailers before reversing and continuing a move to the upside to take out previous highs. Moreover, the Dollar had to contend with more underwhelming jobs data in the form of claims right after Fed chair Powell delivered a somewhat dovish and downbeat address at the NY Economic Club. In short, he underlined flaws in the labour metrics that if eradicated would put the unemployment rate nearer 10% and indicated that the FOMC would overlook a near term inflation spike due to COVID related factors.
This pair has been falling in price, following the descending trend line for almost a whole year now. Price is now slowly breaking out from this structure and following the ascending triangle pattern printed on the chart. I think we could see price test the Daily-OB at 1.902-1.895 before reversing and continuing it's movement to the upside. We've also been seeing GBP gain relative strength as a whole for multiple reasons such as the vaccine rollout which would stabilise price in the medium-term, we also had the BoE keep its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE program at £895B.
We've got this bearish OB formed from the H4 timeframe at 127.35 where I would ideally like to enter a short position. I'm expecting price to break this trend and make a move to the downside towards the OB at 125.2, to mainly stop out retail traders as most traders will likely go long now, but I'm expecting a Liquidity Raid to stop out traders, make them believe that price is breaking to the upside, then once again reverse, stopping them out and continuing to the downside. This is of course after successive price action confirmations.
This one could be a bit complicated, as there is quite a lot going on; however, my overall bias is bullish on Gold. We recently collected orders from the Bullish Daily-OB at 1790. Currently, price is forming a triangle pattern, suggesting we could see a break to either side, there is a lot of indecision in the market. In the short-term, we could see price head towards the triangle's top at 1845, which is also the long-term descending channel's top if we see price break through the intraday resistance at 1828. However, if we see price breakthrough to the upside, we should easily see price head towards that grey liquidity zone, from there on it's up to the market if we see price reverse or continue travelling to new highs.
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