Ticker tape by TradingView

February 14, 2021

Weekly Forex Forecast for USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY, XAUUSD (14-19 February 2021)

Bart Kurek

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending February 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at USDJPY, GBPNZD, EURJPY & XAUUSD.

USD/JPY

Price has recently broken out of this long-term descending channel and is now forming a new uptrend. I've got my eye on the H4-OB at 104.2 and the Daily-OB at 103.5. Most trades will most likely go long at the trend line, but I think price will most likely fake-out lower to take out retailers before reversing and continuing a move to the upside to take out previous highs. Moreover, the Dollar had to contend with more underwhelming jobs data in the form of claims right after Fed chair Powell delivered a somewhat dovish and downbeat address at the NY Economic Club. In short, he underlined flaws in the labour metrics that if eradicated would put the unemployment rate nearer 10% and indicated that the FOMC would overlook a near term inflation spike due to COVID related factors.

GBP/NZD

This pair has been falling in price, following the descending trend line for almost a whole year now. Price is now slowly breaking out from this structure and following the ascending triangle pattern printed on the chart. I think we could see price test the Daily-OB at 1.902-1.895 before reversing and continuing it's movement to the upside. We've also been seeing GBP gain relative strength as a whole for multiple reasons such as the vaccine rollout which would stabilise price in the medium-term, we also had the BoE keep its Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10%, and its QE program at £895B.

EUR/JPY

We've got this bearish OB formed from the H4 timeframe at 127.35 where I would ideally like to enter a short position. I'm expecting price to break this trend and make a move to the downside towards the OB at 125.2, to mainly stop out retail traders as most traders will likely go long now, but I'm expecting a Liquidity Raid to stop out traders, make them believe that price is breaking to the upside, then once again reverse, stopping them out and continuing to the downside. This is of course after successive price action confirmations.

XAU/USD

This one could be a bit complicated, as there is quite a lot going on; however, my overall bias is bullish on Gold. We recently collected orders from the Bullish Daily-OB at 1790. Currently, price is forming a triangle pattern, suggesting we could see a break to either side, there is a lot of indecision in the market. In the short-term, we could see price head towards the triangle's top at 1845, which is also the long-term descending channel's top if we see price break through the intraday resistance at 1828. However, if we see price breakthrough to the upside, we should easily see price head towards that grey liquidity zone, from there on it's up to the market if we see price reverse or continue travelling to new highs.

A1 Edgefinder

FLASH SALE
Take 40% off the Edge finder using code "READER"
GET ACCESS NOW

want to see what we're trading?

Join The VIP Community!
Our entries, exits & analysis
Live Webinar Coaching
Trading Chatrooms
Strategy Library 
Exclusive Trading Guides
Use Code "READER" for 10% OFF!
JOIN NOWJoin FREE Discord
A1 Trading Podcast
We Like These Pairs For Next Week

As this week comes to a close, we are looking ahead at future setups that could be some of the best opportunities for the next several trading sessions. Here are some pairs for next week that we are looking at. EUR/JPY Recent data has shown a slow down in the German manufacturing sector. With European […]

Read More
More Downside On The SPX500 After This?

When it comes to testimonies, it's all in how you say it. Jerome Powell has to be very particular in the way he makes his statements and answers the ensuing questions. Here is what might be in store for the market in the coming days and weeks, and whether or not there will be more […]

Read More
More Upside For Yen After This

The historically 'safe' currency to hold in times of recessions is in a unique situation now with a couple factors in place. Here is why the yen is stronger today as well as some trade setups that could push its value either up or down. Weaker Yen Now, Stronger Yen Later The Bank of Japan […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
homescreensmartphone linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram