USD- The Dollar
At the time of writing this, COT reports on the dollar show that the majority of non-commercial positions are long (71% long). The number of long futures contracts open are actually the highest they have been YTD suggesting that there will be some more bullish momentum to the upside.
CPI and Core Retail Sales:
CPI is to report early on in the week in the hopes of breaking last month’s numbers at 0.4% for March. Core retail sales are expected to be significantly higher than last month's going from a -2.7% to +4.7%. Retail sales data will come out Thursday as investors are expecting considerable volatility on that day. The majority of which think that the USD will see further upside in demand.
USDJPY on the daily chart showing a quick bounce on this pair after hitting support and bouncing off on the same daily candle. The orange area marks a previous high the pair had last year at around 109.831. Friday's candle from last week had trouble coming up above that level, but the pair is testing it once more. Additional support lies on a rising trend line created at the start of 2021.
For the majority of major pairs, traders are overall short on USD which could be a sign that a potential reversal in demand is coming, but last week's analysis on the Canadian loonie said otherwise. And CAD kept increasing in demand. USD still looks like it has a lot of momentum to last a while longer.
9/17/2021 Stocks are down -0.58% this morning after coming down to test a significant level of support once again. While stocks fall, the dollar rises in the anticipation of sooner-than-expected tapering by the Fed along with a hike in interest rates starting in 2022. Our outlook Other than September being one of the worst months […]
9/16/2021 The Euro-Dollar pair is down over 0.5% today after several days in the red. Today's speech by EU president Lagarde mentioned how the economic recovery had come quicker than expected six months ago. This was praised by the prompt vaccine distribution so citizens could get back to work. Across the pond, the US just […]
9/14/2021 This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this. Our outlook […]
9/13/2021 Big money has been moving out of Australia's currency for nearly a month now which has been the biggest drop in long contracts in this amount of time year-to-date. Australia's dollar index (AXY) is up 0.06% at 73.61 on the day after rebounding from the lows around 71.19. Our outlook Australia's economy has surprised […]