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April 5, 2021

Is the Canadian Dollar a Buy in 2021?

Frank Cabibi

CAD- Canadian Dollar, Loonie

Fundamental Analysis

As the Canadian economy gets healthier, the Bank of Canada has decided to lessen their current quantitative easing and give Canada room to grow on its own. CAD is already performing exceptionally compared to the other currencies and is predicted to be the favored for the rest of the year by analysts.

Resources and Employment:

Due to Canada's abundance in natural resources, their business is still heavily in demand to other countries, especially in the US. The price of oil is on the rise as well which is a good sign for the loonie as Canada starts coming out of the pandemic and things seem to be reaching normalcy again.

Canada has projected to lower their unemployment rate by 0.2% when the data comes out this Friday. The number of employment change is expected to be significantly less than last month, so this currency will probably go through some volatility this week, and especially towards the end of this week.

Technical Analysis

CAD/JPY 1D chart

CADJPY on the 1D chart has shown great upside movement from the start of February. This pair will likely find support on that steep blue trend line. There is also additional support in the low 86s, but it seems that price will bounce off that trend line before it can reach support. With momentum this heavy to the upside, it would be wise to stick with the trend until we start to see some technical patterns suggesting price will go lower.

Retail Sentiment

Retail is heavily bearish against the Canadian loonie on the major CAD pairs which is directly countering the big upside this currency has had the past few months. Again, the trend will likely continue to the upside regardless of retail sentiment right now. Fundamentals and technicals support CAD heavily for the time being so it might be some time before we see CAD turn bearish.

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