Rising Number in Short Positions
When looking at the COT report on the Japanese Yen, there is an increase in the number of short positions taken by big money. Right now, only 17% of institutions are long JPY showing an overall short bias against the yen. Another thing that could be hurting the yen is the fact that the overall sentiment in USD rose last week alongside the stock market. COVID relief is happening more efficiently in the US over Japan and Europe as of now, and risk-on sentiment seems to be affecting JPY more negatively than the USD.
Jobs Numbers and Vaccine Rollout
Over the span of Biden's presidency, over 100 million vaccines were distributed in the US a month and a half ahead of schedule. Biden says he plans to double the number of vaccines distributed so far this year. This, along with the higher than expected jobs numbers in the US seems to be enough to take the yen down further.
On the daily chart here for USD/JPY, the pair has been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of this year. This strong movement suggests that price has significant momentum to the upside after breaking yearly highs in early March. Now the pair is tested along some heavier resistance around 109.774 which will prove to be a key level in the pair's direction. If price doesn't break, it can find support around the low 108.000s, but if we see a break above, there could be a lot more room to the upside for this pair.
Most of the retail segment looks to be bullish on the yen even though demand is continually getting crushed by big money shorting the currency. Although retail is looking for a change in direction, it looks like that may not happen in the near future.
9/24/2021 The People's Bank of China banned all crypto transactions on overseas Chinese services along with its domestic ban. Bitcoin is down over 8% today and Ethereum is down 11.48%. Our outlook I think we're seeing a lot of noise around China and their condemning of cryptocurrencies before they digitize their own. In the short […]
Let's look into the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Summary which took place on Thursday the 23rd of September, 2021. Quick Summary: BoE keeps interest rates unchanged at 0.10% BoE will maintain its asset purchasing target at £875B The vote to keep policy unchanged passed with a 7-2 vote The minutes of the MPC meeting […]
9/23/2021 The precious metal snapped three days of gains and tumbled back down to the support range from $1740s-1760s approximately. Gold is down -.56% on the day going into the opening of the NY session. Our outlook Gold will likely rise on the US indices falling, and is usually due to slowing economic growth. Because […]
9/21/2021 Bitcoin Update For the past month, Bitcoin went on a tear rising over 20% from the beginning of August. Recently, however, China and other risk-off factors have contributed to a 23% decline from the recent highs around $52,760. Now the most prominent crypto has touched these monthly lows which could be a potentially good […]