Gold: Inflation, Fed, And Tracking The Commodity Better
Sean Streb
Hey everybody, this is a breakdown of some of the macro trends around Gold and some of the pressures it is facing from inflation and the Fed's potential rate hikes.
Overview
As of 09/26/2021, the Gold Continuous Contract is down -0.75% this week, and -3.79% for the month. Gold is currently caught in a limbo between rising inflation and rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Inflation is positively correlated with the price of Gold, but there isn't much inflation despite all the liquidity introduced by the Fed.
The Fed
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch theorizes that Chairmen Powell will announce that QE tapering on November 3rd. The first rate hike to occur in 3Q23 and continue on a quarterly basis. The Fed currently wants inflation as it will juice the economy. If inflation pushes beyond that zone, they may decide to increase rates. Short term inflation is a large concern because of supply line disruptions in the market. If the supply chain cannot meet the demand, then the prices of goods could kick off a bout of inflation that shoots us past the 'Troublesome Zone'.
The key variable is time. If inflation rapidly increases, the fed will move up their 3Q23 plan. If this occurs, the market could react by buying Gold to hedge against a sudden inflationary episode that grew out of the Fed’s control.
Gold Stocks are Undervalued
The Gold Mining sector is trading below the 10 year Net Asset Valuation, which indicates that the miners themselves are currently undervalued, particularly the Jr. mining stocks. If the price of gold were to swing in favor of the miners, there is more pressure to revert to the mean
A New Way to Track the Price of Gold?
After a little digging, I found a Bloomberg Index fund that tracks the price of Gold with incredible accuracy. The following chart shows the top 7 major market indices with the strongest correlation to gold.
The index with the highest correlation is the Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Index, which is pegged to the Global bond market, excluding US bonds and other treasuries. Both foreign bonds and Gold have an inverse relationship with the dollar, but the BBG Global Index is useful for forecasting the overall trend of gold as it offers a less volatile perspective. Due to its high correlation to gold and it’s relatively low volatility, one can chart the overall direction of gold with near 70% correlation. This correlation holds back to 2015.
The benefit of having only a .70 correlation coefficient as opposed to 100% correlation, is that it allows us to see through the "static" of Gold's volatility. The best example is near the end of the chart: GLD moves up near 6.00%, but eventually corrects down to conform with the overall downtrend signal given by the index fund.
A1 Edgefinder
Watchlist
Save time looking for setups with the EdgeFinder's watchlist! In a glance, see the EdgeFinder's current top buys and top sells.
The dollar flew higher last week as a result of resilient economic news along with a higher PCE than expected. Now the DXY has reached a decision point in price action. This week's NFP will help determine the sentiment around the potential June rate hike. Here is what we are looking at: EdgeFinder Analysis USDCAD […]
Considerably dovish news from central banks in the US and New Zealand has caused a major stir in the markets. Governor Orr and Vice Chairman Powell both released some reassuring news for the economy in the long term. But what does this mean for USD and NZD? EdgeFinder Analysis GBPNZD is a pair that should […]
As we trade into a broad news week covering the economic status of multiple countries, there are several scenarios we should consider. Although it is impossible to predict the future, we can at least prepare for the news events set to come this week for kiwi, dollar and the pound. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPJPY still maintains […]
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here