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June 28, 2021

Golden Cross Marks a Golden Opportunity, A Downplay on Inflation is a Downplay on Gold

Frank Cabibi

6/28/2021

The Fed's recent monetary policy meeting showed us mixed sentiment on the US economy and dollar, which in turn has extended effects on the price of the gold bullion. All major economies are calling the recent spike in CPI inflation "transitory" or impermanent an that is not something to worry about in the long term. This nonchalant sentiment for our current inflation rate is a direct reflection on sentiment for gold.

Our outlook

Gold's current state doesn't look too bullish as of now that the Fed seems to not be very worried about current inflation numbers. However, gold's recent slump in price has made going long more attractive, especially as US jobs numbers are expected to be better than last month's, and current low interest rates keep the dollar weaker for now.

Trade Setups

XAUUSD

Here's a look at gold on the 4H timeframe. Price is still stuck in a wedge formation and nearing the end of it as long wick rejecting lows on previous candles suggest a move higher. Price action looks like consolidation will persist until the very end of the wedge. A break under could result in hitting support around a $1750-1770s support zone. Nearest resistance above the wedge is the $1800 mark.

This chart is of gold but from the 1D chart. A key metric has been made on the daily chart as gold's 50 day moving average has crossed above the 200 day moving average. This golden cross event might be a golden opportunity for longing the metal in the short term. And if price can maintain a long wick rejecting lows on this recent daily candle, it would prove a false breakout to the downside and price might try to breakout to the upside.

XAGUSD

Silver on the 1D chart looks promising as well, after hitting its 200 DMA and bouncing from it. XAG's candle is also looking very similar to gold's today as the correlation between these two metals is very similar (correlation coefficient reads of silver compared to gold is 0.99 out of 1.00 positively correlated).

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