CAD pairs are moving in favor of the loonie for the most part this week as oil prices continue to surge. US oil inventories beat expectations once again which is a good sign for oil's demand and a good sign for the Canadian economy. Gold also helps Canada a good bit, which has been performing pretty well on a slowing US economy. I like CAD's strength going into next week, but GDP tomorrow will definitely be an impactful factor in the loonie's strength.
Canada's inflation rate chart above actually shows some slowing in inflation which is the opposite of what Powell says about the USD's inflation rate. The Fed expects a higher rate going forward although he argues that it is transitory and not inflationary. Either way, CAD is starting to look much better after this news and could see some strength this and next week in my opinion.
UC looks pretty bearish right now, especially if it can't bounce off this support zone. The pair also broke under a rising trend line on the 1D chart which looks increasingly bearish. If price bounces, it will likely retrace on its 200 DMA which is also a resistance level around 1.26000. But, if price doesn't bounce, I can see a further move down to its 50 DMA. The pair is now back in a heavy consolidation zone.
CJ looks pretty bullish here on the 4H chart where price broke above a resistance zone. But, the break is still kind of weak, and a clear close above it would be a good sign for the pair. If the 1H has a nice close above this level, I think that would be the start of a continued run to the upside. I traded this pair with a bullish case, and I still feel like we got some room to run here to at least the next top around 88.550. But, that all depends on if price can hold itself at or above this level it's currently hovering on.
For this pair, I'm kind of mixed because of the price action this week makes it look stronger than CAD from a techincal standpoint. So, in the short term (this and next week) I don't really know where it's going to move. However, the pair likes the 50 DMA for support, it couldn't reach the highs to test a double top around 1.75660, and it also couldn't fall back down to a falling trend line for support. GBPCAD could be showing signs of an early wedge pattern on the 1D.
I really like these lower lows on the 4H especially after price broke underneath its channel that it rode since June. If price comes up to retest that resistance (trend line and resistance level around .92273, I think that could be a decent short setup here, especially amid the Australian lockdown.
9/17/2021 Stocks are down -0.58% this morning after coming down to test a significant level of support once again. While stocks fall, the dollar rises in the anticipation of sooner-than-expected tapering by the Fed along with a hike in interest rates starting in 2022. Our outlook Other than September being one of the worst months […]
9/16/2021 The Euro-Dollar pair is down over 0.5% today after several days in the red. Today's speech by EU president Lagarde mentioned how the economic recovery had come quicker than expected six months ago. This was praised by the prompt vaccine distribution so citizens could get back to work. Across the pond, the US just […]
9/14/2021 This morning's report on CPI m/m and core CPI m/m came in at a lower percentage than expected which resulted in a falling dollar pre-New York session. The USD is now volatile under the uncertainty of potential tapering and rising rates while the equities market seems to be rising because of this. Our outlook […]
9/13/2021 Big money has been moving out of Australia's currency for nearly a month now which has been the biggest drop in long contracts in this amount of time year-to-date. Australia's dollar index (AXY) is up 0.06% at 73.61 on the day after rebounding from the lows around 71.19. Our outlook Australia's economy has surprised […]