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June 9, 2022

How To Trade These Dollar Pairs

Frank Cabibi

The dollar started showing weakness on some pairs today as investors anticipate a higher rise in inflation tomorrow. USD is looking especially weak against the pound, yen and swiss as dollar sinks against the swiss by over half a percent. Because of this mixed sentiment, here is a forecast of what we think the dollar pairs might do going into tomorrow's inflation report as well as next week relative to the currencies it trades against.

EUR/USD

ECB was expected to keep interest rates at 0% which came in as expected this morning, so no surprise here. Interest has been negative for a long time, so zero is a step in the right direction, but it is also not very promising when going against the other majors like the dollar, kiwi, loonie or even pound. Economists do expect to raise rates in July though, so traders might be pricing in the future hikes which are targeted to hit 1.3% by the end of 2022.

Our bias: There is a pretty strong correlation to the S&P, just like GU, so the thought of risk off sentiment and higher euro rates could be bullish for the pair. It would also depend on how CPI goes tomorrow on the USD. Higher CPI would mean Fed will try to stay the course, strengthening the dollar, but falling inflation could loosen up the Fed and weaken the dollar.

GBP/USD

With surging inflation in the UK, the pressure is mounting on the pound. The BOE is shooting for around the same interest rate as the ECB, at 1.38% by December. Boris Johnson survived the governor confidence vote, but the pound is now looking really weak from a fundamental standpoint. The Edgefinder thinks the pound is a strong sell which is concerning, especially as economists think inflation will hit 10% this year before curbing.

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Our bias: The question is whether the BOE is too aggressive on the pound during a recovering economy, or if they’re not aggressive enough to curb inflation. Outlook is weak on this currency, so the pound might suffer in the meantime.

USD/CAD

Canada’s version of Non-Farm Payroll comes out this Friday with the expectation of adding 28K jobs, which is 13K jobs more than the month before (economic expansion). Their bank is also aggressively hiking rates as well. Last week’s hike was 50 basis points while oil rises on supply chain issues with sanctions regarding Russia and Ukraine. So it’s helping out the commodity driven economy.

Our bias: Canada is like a powerhouse right now, I would not go against this pair. You’d be a loonie to short the loonie.

USD/JPY

The yen sank to 20 year lows while BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda says he's not going to loosen his hawkish stance towards interest rates. They also left the key short term interest rate the same (-0.10%) which doesn’t seem very productive especially if the bank is trying to be hawkish.

Our bias: The yen is likely not going to be bullish for an extended amount of time at any point soon.

XAU/USD

The long standing war in Ukraine continues to drive up commodity prices due to supply chain issues and geopolitical tension. Gold’s performance also depends on whether the US economy slows down, so unemployment claims are something to look at as well as NFP, but NFP beat expectations last week. Bond yields and gold’s price go hand in hand and the US 10-year note touched above 3% today, suggesting weakness in the metal.

Our bias: We are mostly neutral on the metal and I think there are better things to trade right now.

SPX500

Bond yields also heavily affect the stock market as well as jobs data. Depending on CPI this Friday, the S&P will either look bullish or bearish for the rest of the week and going into next week. If CPI is higher, that would not be good for stocks in my opinion bc it will encourage the Fed to remain strong on the USD, especially with the beat in NFP last week. But if CPI is lower, maybe the Fed will start to tapering with the idea of relaxing their heavy hawkish stance.

Our bias: The SPX500 never really came down to hit a bottom before bouncing, and it never really hit any resistance before it retraced. So, I don’t really know where it’s going to end up. But I do see lots of bullish setups in the short term. Just looking for quick bounces and dipping out before the market gives it all back.

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