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August 23, 2021

Is The USD Still A Better Bet Than The Loonie?

Frank Cabibi

8/23/2021

This week is going to be pretty quiet for Canada while the US's preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, and Powell speaks on Friday. In the last two trading days, USDCAD has topped out and dipped a little over 1% after touching to new highs. This week's USD news will most likely determine where the pair is going to move this week.

Our outlook

Judging the past couple of weeks in unemployment claims, I think the US will likely beat expectations again by a close margin or this week's number will be less than last week's. Early in the week, we might continue to see the pair fall lower, but once it hits a certain level, I think that the pair has a good chance of rebounding back to the upside. More volatility could be expected later on this week when Powell speaks and with the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday.

Trade Setups

USDCAD

USDCAD on the 1D chart still looks bullish after touching new highs in the 1.29000s. Price had a big break out of its consolidation zone for the second time which could now serve as a new level of support. If price decides to come hit back to this level, I think there is some potential in playing the long side of this pair.

Here is the same pair on the 4H timeframe. There are eight straight red candles that are taking price nearer to support suggesting a strong short term downtrend. However, if price hits the 1.26503 level, it could bottom here and try working its way back up.

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