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July 6, 2021

Kiwi Tanks After Interest Rate Prediction

Frank Cabibi

7/6/2021

ASB Bank came out with a new prediction this morning concerning interest rates and the expectation that the RBNZ will raise them by as early as November of 2021. This has sent NZD pairs into a frenzy as it pushed some pairs as much as 0.91% on the day at the time of writing this. There is some confusion as to why most traders are short the kiwi right now, but sentiment looks like that will not last.

Our outlook

Any time a country decides to raise interest rates or expects to raise them, at least, is a strong sign that we will start to see more strength on that currency. The fact that the kiwi is coming down this morning looks like short term bearishness, but long term strength (at least until November).

Trade Setups

NZDJPY

Kiwi yen down 1.18% on just the 4H candle which is one of NZD's hardest moving pairs so far. The pair broke under support and looks like it's struggling to find upside right now. It looks to be in freefall right now, but price could find support around 77.068 should the downside continue.

NZDCAD

Heavy selling on NZDCAD has pushed price down 1% for the day as the pair comes near support around 0.87231 on the 4H timeframe. This is the kiwi's hardest mover today, however, it looks like it has a better chance for upside than the NJ pair as of now.

NZDCHF

NCHF on the 4H looks like it bottomed out for now as the pair hits a previous low from several candles back. The pair continues to make higher highs on that rising trend line suggesting more upside moves. If this latest candle can end the trading period on a long wick from the bottom, it may be one of the better long plays on the NZD pairs.

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