Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending March 12th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, GBPCAD, GBPJPY & XAUUSD.
Beginning with EU, price had been in a steady uptrend since the Covid-19 crash back in March last year. This means we should be primarily looking for buying opportunities in this market. Currently on the daily timeframe, this bullish flag pattern has been formed; price shot up in November and has now formed a descending channel. Most retailers would look to go long now for two reasons. Firstly as price is now at a previous resistance, now new support at 1.192 and secondly, price has now touched the channel's bottom. There is a lot of liquidity between 1.192-1.80 as most traders have their stop losses around here. I'm expecting price to continue shooting down, taking out these traders, then reverse and reach the channel's top minimum, if not complete it and continue creating new highs.
I have shared this chart in the past week or so and pointed out both the Order Block (OB) and Liquidity Void (LV) in this market. Price has now reached and closed off for the week at the top of these zones. We've got this steady uptrend going on, and price is steadily channeling to the upside. We could either see one of two things happen next; firstly, we could see price reverse off the 50% OB and 100% LV mark, which is also the new support level from the ascending triangle pattern right before. However, we could also see that these zones may become invalid, and price could head towards the channel's bottom, break below to stop out traders as most retailers would definitely go long at that point, and then reverse and continue heading to the upside. Any of these two can happen, I would look out for price action confirmations of bullish strength coming into the market before making any decisions as the weeks go by.
This market's long-term trend is pretty sideways as price consolidates between levels; however, currently, we have got this strong ascending channel that is moving pretty fast to the upside. Price has closed off for the week at the channel's top, and we have got two possible scenarios going on now. Firstly, between the two horizontal lines is a lot of liquidity as most retailers are most likely going short and aiming for the channel's bottom. We could see these trades being stopped out as banks will push price just higher to collect liquidity and then reverse and aim for the retailer's original targets. On the other hand, secondly, we could see price straight away just reverse now at the channel's top and aim for the bottom. Remember, banks do not always make traders lose, they need to give retailers good trades to keep them in the trading game longer, it sounds harsh, but it's the truth.
Gold has been heavily but steadily trending to the upside for the past two years or so, taking out every high. This means we should be primarily looking to get involved in this wave and look out mainly for buying opportunities in this market. Gold is in a short-term descending channel as price has formed a bullish flag pattern. Price is now nearing the channel's bottom, where most traders will be looking to go long instantly as price touches the bottom. We will see a lot of liquidity being shot in the market between the two blue levels as most traders will likely have their stop losses between there. I expect banks to manipulate and stop out these trades, pushing just below the channel before reversing and targeting the original target, which is the channel's top and then higher, to complete the long-term bullish flag pattern.
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