Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending March 19th, 2021. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPCAD, GBPJPY, NZDCAD & XAUUSD.
Price has now broken through the LV at 1.745 and the major EQL at 1.742, which has been constantly respected as either s/r since January and is now also at the 100% mark at the bullish OB formed on the Daily timeframe, which is also the bottom of this ascending channel which price has been respecting since September 2020. Going forward, I think we could either see price reject and reverse off this channel's bottom now, or price could also break through this OB and continue going lower, to stop out retailers before reversing and continuing the channel's move.
Price is now in the middle of this liquidity zone, where I expect many retailers to begin closing their short positions, which they took out at the channel's top last week. I still expect a huge candle to be formed, which will take out the majority of traders quickly which could likely be up to 153.8. Once we see this liquidity raid happen, retailers will likely change their bias and go long, then price will reverse and continue in the original direction towards the downside and head towards the channel's bottom, and once again making retailers lose.
Price has been in this long-term ascending channel since May 2020, consistently making new highs. Price is currently nearing the channel's bottom and an EQH at 1.89, which was seen as a triple top back in October 2020 where most traders likely went short, but of course got stopped out. Price is now coming back to this level, and I believe most retailers will go long at this level for a channel continuation move; however, I expect price to break lower, just outside the channel when there is enough liquidity for banks to raid, before of course reversing and continuing the long-term channel move to the upside.
Price has now reached the bottom of this descending channel at 1675, which is also the same level between February and June 2020 that was seen as clear resistance, then support, and now again seen as clear support. This is also the same level as the 62.0% Fib retracement when placed at the bottom of the flagpole. Going forward on what's next for Gold, I expect price to head towards the next resistance at 1765, the 50% Fib retracement level, and previously seen as clear support and resistance. Once we see a clear break of this level, we could expect price to continue pushing to the upside.
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