Ticker tape by TradingView

A1 Trading - Weekly Market Forecast

Last Updated:
8/02/2021

EUR/USD (Euro)

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
EUR- German Prelim GDP q/q: 1.5%, miss.
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
EUR- German Final Manufacturing PMI.
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
EUR did not discuss asset purchases and still plan to cut PEPP in March 2022. US Fed says that they will not taper anytime soon, this looks pretty weak for the dollar. EUR looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

Retail sentiment for EURUSD
Targets
1 Week Target
1.19800
1 Month Target
1.19000
1 Year Target
1.20140
Trade Setups
Euro is gaining significant momentum on the 1D chart and is nearing resistance around 1.19800. The break above a hard falling trend line and the rejection of the lows with long wicks are also bullish signs for the pair.

COT Data

This is the COT data report for EUR
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

GBP/USD (Pound)

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
GBP- Retail sales m/m and Flash Manufacturing PMI: 60.4, miss.
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
GBP- BOE Monetary Policy Report August 5, Asset Purchase Facility, BOE Monetary Policy Report, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, MPC Member Broadbent Speaks.
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
GBP's bank rates were able to stay the same while setting policy to reach their 2% inflation target. Britain and the US will likely not taper anytime soon, but recent slow in jobs growth looks bad for the USD. GBP looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

Retail sentiment for GBPUSD
Targets
1 Week Target
1.40900
1 Month Target
1.35000
1 Year Target
1.40093
Trade Setups
The pair is coming up to resistance to 1.39900. If price tests and breaks, it could reach the 1.40000s. This pair is doing similarly to EU as it broke out of a falling trend line to the upside.

COT Data

Here is COT data for GBP.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

USD/JPY (Yen)

Overall Bias: 

NEUTRAL

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
Rising unemployment claims and inflation could mean a rise in the USD as investors expect the Fed to step in and raise rates. Both currencies look unattractive at this point, so I see the pair just ranging for the most part. It looks like you could trade the ups and downs.

Retail Sentiment

UJ retail sentiment shows majority of traders short on this pair.
Targets
1 Week Target
109.500
1 Month Target
112.124
1 Year Target
112.028
Trade Setups
Price fell back to support around the 109.500s. 109.064 could be a decent support level for the pair.

COT Data

Here is COT data for Yen.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

USD/CHF (Franc)

Overall Bias: 

BEARISH

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
CHF- Switzerland will release their report on monetary policy next month which might help the Franc gain more demand over the USD.
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
The dollar is under significant pressure which could draw more bearish attention to it. The Franc might seem more attractive in the short term. CHF looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

Retail Sentiment for Dollar/Swiss Franc.
Targets
1 Week Target
.90057
1 Month Target
.90060
1 Year Target
.90785
Trade Setups
Price crossed under its 50 DMA on the 1D chart as price action looks bearish. Support in the low .89300s.

COT Data

Here is COT data for CHF.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar)

Overall Bias: 

BEARISH

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
CAD- CPI m/m: 0.3%, miss; GDP m/m: -0.3%, met.
Upcoming Economic News
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
With oil prices gaining demand and the recent drop in Canada's inflation rate, the loonie looks much more attractive going into this week. USD jobs slow and inflation is likely going to tick higher past Fed's expectations, according to the Fed. CAD looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

The majority of retail is long on this pair.
Targets
1 Week Target
1.23557
1 Month Target
1.25712
1 Year Target
1.30000
Trade Setups
USDCAD looking increasingly bearish on the 1D chart as it crossed under support. Price could come down to test 1.23690 if there is more bearishness this week.

COT Data

Here is COT data for CAD.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

AUD/USD (Australian Dollar)

Overall Bias: 

BEARISH

Latest Economic News
AUD- CPI q/q July 27: 0.1% higher than expected.
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
AUD- RBA Rate Statement, RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Our Outlook
Australia's lockdown does not look good for the buck even though the USD now looks weak form jobs data. Aussie's economy has taken a big step back in progress from this shutdown, so the USD will probably find strength.

Retail Sentiment

Retail is majority long on this pair.
Targets
1 Week Target
.73145
1 Month Target
.74174
1 Year Target
.80058
Trade Setups
The pair has resistance around .74118. Support is lower to .72902.

COT Data

Here is COT data for AUD.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

NZD/USD (Kiwi Dollar)

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
Our Outlook
The kiwi now looks bullish after ASB bank announced that New Zealand could hike interest rates by November. The steady drop in dairy prices in NZD (NZ's major export) is bearish, but NZD will raise rates sooner than the USD while the Fed has said they won't look to taper or raise rates soon.

Retail Sentiment

Retail sentiment for Kiwi/Dollar.
Targets
1 Week Target
.70614
1 Month Target
.74590
1 Year Target
.75573
Trade Setups
Price broke above a falling trend line on the 1D chart which could send the pair to test highs around .70891.

COT Data

Here is COT data for NZD.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

XAU/USD (Gold)

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Our Outlook
A key indicator for gold's success lies in a slowing jobs market which looks like is what happened last month. The USD is getting weaker which is making gold look more bullish. XAU looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

Retail sentiment for gold.
Targets
1 Week Target
1845.00
1 Month Target
1800.00
1 Year Target
1880.00
Trade Setups
Gold had a breakout run to the upside after crossing above its falling trend line. A test at the highs of the $1,845 mark could happen if this momentum continues. 

COT Data

Here is COT data for gold.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

SPX500 (S&P 500)

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
USD- Unemployment Claims: 400K, miss; CB Consumer Confidence: 129.1, beat; Advance GDP q/q: 6.5%, miss; Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.4%, miss.
Upcoming Economic News
USD- FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, Advance GDP q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m July 28-30.
Our Outlook
The Fed's testimony and questions after signaled that tapering will not happen anytime soon. This means interest rates will remain as low as they've been for some time, which is good for stocks.

Retail Sentiment

Here is retail sentiment for SPX500. Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
Targets
1 Week Target
4410.00
1 Month Target
4444.44
1 Year Target
4400.00
Trade Setups
The SPX500 made a higher high on the 1D chart which could signal further highs this week. Support lies at $4,394. 

COT Data

Here is COT data for SPX500.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

Bitcoin

Overall Bias: 

BULLISH

Latest Economic News
HEADLINES:
IMF says bitcoin isn't a suitable national currency.
Debt-financed bitcoin purchases are argued to be good plays. 
Our Outlook
Another bullish week for crypto last week. Big institutions are still pouring into bitcoin, but it is also mixed. Shorts and longs on these futures contracts are increasing around the same rate each week. But, the recent short squeeze suggests that there is more money going into the longs. Bitcoin could also serve as a hedge against inflation. BTC looks stronger.

Retail Sentiment

Here is retail sentiment for BTC. Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/sentiment/2021/03/12/BITCOIN-IG-Client-Sentiment-0923.html
Targets
1 Week Target
38776.00
1 Month Target
46133.00
1 Year Target
72168.00
Trade Setups
Bitcoin's jump last week shows a good sign to the bulls that more upside could be coming. Now that the coin is out of its consolidation zone, it seems unlikely that price will fall back underneath, and instead use that level ($34,800s) as support. 

COT Data

Here is COT data for BTC.
Please remember that this analysis is purely our opinions. Nothing in this content should be construed as financial advice. We encourage you to do your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please read our full disclaimer here.

A1 Trading Company

A1 Trading Company is a financial services and media business founded in Atlanta, USA.
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram