October 24, 2022

New UK PM, New Fundamentals

Michael J. Donoghue
New UK PM, New Fundamentals

The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has been decided: Rishi Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer in Boris Johnson’s administration, has won the ruling Conservative Party’s leadership election by default. Having previously sounded the alarm against Liz Truss’ debt-financed tax cuts while running against her in the last leadership race, his efforts to avoid such fiscal stimulus amid historic inflation rates proved prescient. The Pound jumped in value accordingly upon the news of his win; financial markets appear to be hoping that with the new UK PM, new fundamentals will follow.

Is GBP Bearish Momentum Over?

It seems plausible that GBP could experience increased buying pressure over the short term, particularly in response to a PM that veers away from money-printing during high inflation. However, the core problems plaguing the Pound and the British economy remain regardless: a timidly hawkish Bank of England, the looming energy crisis, messy trade, and impending stagflation are not things that a new PM can fix single-handedly. In terms of fundamentals, it currently seems more likely that the GBP bearish trend will ultimately continue, perhaps even falling below parity with USD.

Best Pairs to Watch

For those interested in shorting the Pound, there are no pairs currently ranked favorably for GBP bears by the EdgeFinder, A1 Trading’s handy market scanner; this is fitting, considering the likelihood of GBP finding short-term bullishness. However, if GBP bearishness continues upon encountering fresh resistance, the following two neutral pairs currently lean less in the Pound’s favor, which traders can consider for the future. They are listed below with their respective ratings, signals/biases, and corresponding charts.

1) GBP/USD (Receives a -2, or ‘Neutral’ Signal)

New UK PM, New Fundamentals
New UK PM, New Fundamentals

2) GBP/NZD (Receives a -2, or ‘Neutral’ Signal)

New UK PM, New Fundamentals
New UK PM, New Fundamentals

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