Tomorrow is a big day for all markets. We’ve had a handful of painful economic numbers point towards a suffering US economy. As of now, investors are getting ready for a rocky rest of the year. But one thing could set off another market correction: tomorrow’s NFP.
EdgeFinder Analysis
EURNZD is the EdgeFinder's strongest buy. At +6, the Euro wins in every category except unemployment and interest rates. The crowd is heavily short this pair, but institutions are acting otherwise. Despite lower interest rates, EUR has a better handle on inflation which is arguably the leading metric in measuring a currency's strength.
This pair has historically performed positively in the month of April for the last 10 years on average. The trend reading suggests higher moves into the 1.75s in the mid term. Longer term target for this pair is around 1.76225.
NZDCAD showing some weakness on the 1D timeframe as price falls over 0.80% on the day. Kiwi is looking more bearish as economic data shows little signs of improvement. On the other hand, CAD is growing in jobs and lowering the UE rate. Canada is also hiking interest, and it looks like they are more on track to a recovering economy, stronger currency, and lower inflation as of now.
Price hit the top of a falling trend line and rejected the highs. Today's candle is a straight decline towards the 0.83993 level. This looks like the pair may try to complete the move to the bottom of the channel.
Gold looks stronger by the day on a fundamental level. Predominately, the metal prevails under recessionary worries, stock market fears, lower treasury yields and poor economic data. All of which are happening right now. Tomorrow's NFP news is already expected (236K) to be lower than the previous report (311K), which suggests signs of contraction.
Because of lower forecasts this time around, NFP could still beat the expectation. However, a number closer to the forecast than the previous is not a good sign for the economy. Gold is heavily bought by institutions, retail is heavily bearish, seasonality points to more gains, trend readings are higher, targets are $2,063 and $2,125.
Retail Spotlight
With focus on the minor pairs, the crowd is heavy bullish NZD and AUD. They are also heavily short EUR and stock indices. They can't quite decide what they want to do with the technology sector and oil.
Smart Money Spotlight
The Yen is still heavily short along with CAD, US30 and CHF. The most longed assets are suggesting risk off sentiment as gold is the heaviest long by institutions. Gold also saw the heaviest net change in institutional interest to the long side meaning that there is increased interest in the metal.
Fundamental Spotlight
When comparing USD and CAD unemployment rates, the US has a better handle on maintaining stability in the jobs market. However, tomorrow's news could leave a big impact on the dollar in a positive way. If unemployment rises, it may spark fear in the US stock market in the short term. In turn, the USD will likely see upside due to risk off sentiment. Gold will likely do the same.
A1 Edgefinder
AI- Generated Trading Setups
AI-generated bullish/bearish bias setups on forex currencies, gold, & indices.
This week has brought more inflation data with it regarding the USD's PCE and PMI numbers. Powell is also set to speak this Friday about monetary policy going forward. The RBNZ will also release their latest interest rate news tomorrow with expectations of an unchanged rate at 5.5%. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPUSD is a bullish bias […]
This week is a big PMI week for Europe, UK and US. Additional inflationary metrics will add to the overall sentiment of these countries' monetary policies going forward. Here are some setups for the coming week on these currencies. EdgeFinder Analysis GBPCAD is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder as we wait for CPI news […]
After some stellar inflationary news for the US market, the indices, gold and risk on pairs caught an incredible run to the upside. However, now that price has run as far as it did, it is normal for these assets to pullback to support before finding another wave of buyers. EdgeFinder Analysis AUDUSD is now […]
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
There is a significant degree of risk involved in trading securities. With respect to foreign exchange trading, there is considerable risk exposure, including but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.