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November 22, 2020

Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF, XAUUSD (22-27 November 2020)

Bart Kurek

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending November 27th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at EURUSD, AUDUSD, AUDCHF & XAUUSD.

EUR/USD

Looking at the chart above, we can see this pair is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 1.1900. Price is travelling along the ascending trendline nicely, all presenting bullish opportunities. If we do see a break of this resistance, this could open up targets such as 1.21. Additionally, reputable sources such as Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs & Credit Agricole are all expecting EURUSD to pick up bullish momentum and are all looking for targets around 1.20, 1.22, and 1.25. However, looking at a seller's perspective, price has now reached a weekly descending channel's resistance, and with all the recent Coronavirus vaccine news, the Eurozone is expected to recover first before the US, leading to big money fleeing the dollar and building positions in EUR. This could potentially cause considerable drops in this pair, opening up targets at 1.18 or lower.

AUD/USD

Looking at this pair, price formed an ascending triangle pattern and broke out in the reverse direction, to the upside. Continuing from last week's analysis on this pair, price is consolidating between these two levels, holding support at 0.722 and resistance at 0.733. I am looking for a continued bullish move, expecting price to break through the resistance and completing this pattern. As we know, Credit Suisse is long on AUD/USD currently with entries around 0.72, and looking for targets around 0.75; if we see a break of that resistance, we could easily hop on this train and potentially catch many pips. Additionally, as we know, there is a lot of positive vaccine news rolling out, causing enormous strength in the USD. Knowing this, more should be coming up, like EUA approvals, funding approvals, and much more; we could see this pair shoot up easily!

AUD/CHF

This pair is now forming a descending channel after a sharp bullish impulse. Last week price has closed at the resistance of this channel; we're still yet to see a second or third clear touch of the support. This suggests possible short-term bearish positions we could place and wait until price does form precise touches, then we could hold long positions until we see price complete this pattern, of course after continued successive price action confirmations of this. If, however, we see a breakout on this pair without any further downside moves, we could look to go long once we see a clear retest and rejection of this resistance trend line. Additionally, if we see price break this resistance, zooming out on the Daily chart, we can see a long-term level acting as resistance for a while; if we do see price break this level, this could open up levels as 0.683 and 0.70.

XAU/USD

We have a clear descending triangle pattern visible on this pair and price currently holding at the 1860 support. As expected last week, more positive vaccine news came out with the pharmaceutical company Moderna at 94.5% effectiveness, and the next day Pfizer and BioNTech coming out with a 95% effective vaccine. This is unquestionably huge for the currency; we could finally see life go back to normal and an "escape" out of this pandemic. Private sources shared that Pfizer is in regular communications with Biden's Covid team. I expect this pair to certainly shoot down and, at the same time, complete this pattern. Once we see price break this support, this opens up targets at previous monthly levels such as 1750, 1560, and 1440.

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