November 29, 2020

Weekly Forex Forecast for GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, XAUUSD (29-04 December 2020)

Bart Kurek

Hey everyone! Welcome to this week's forex forecast for the week ending December 4th, 2020. I'm TraderBart with A1 Trading, and this week I'll be looking at GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD & XAUUSD.


Looking at the overall market, we've got a clear ascending channel forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, we're about halfway through the current swing in the market, as price bounced off the channel's support at the start of November and we're now on our way to reach the resistance. Buyers are probably watching out for price action confirmations at the previous resistance at 1.328 and looking for price to treat this as new support, and continuing the bullish move. However, sellers will see that price failed to break through the 1.34 resistance, the same level as the previous higher high in the channel. This also lines up with not only the rising wedge formation which price is now breaking out of. Also, we're backed by some institutions like TD Bank and Credit Agricole who are saying the Pound is beginning to look expensive and according to Brexit-proxy indicators, GBP scores poorly on a mix of short-term valuation and growth, where relative mobility trends point to another run below 1.30. Also, with Biden pushing for a stimulus before year-end, this will further strengthen the USD and therefore points more towards a drop in this market. For extended fundamentals click here.


There's a mixed outlook on this market because we've got this bearish butterfly harmonic pattern formed in addition to the double top at the 0.738 level. The AUD is relatively neutral at the moment, and the performance in commodities will remain the dominant driver and influence moving forward. However looking at this market as a buyer, I've been watching the progress in this descending triangle pattern which broke to the upside, and they're likely to want to continue pushing price higher. I think we could see bullish moves as we've got a weak USD currently caused by participants moving out of safe-havens and back into riskier assets. This could without a doubt push price higher to previous long-term levels such as 0.75 or even monthly resistance levels like 0.80. For this reason, I'm a bit mixed at the moment, I would also pay close attention to how the Australian government will contain and deal with the Covid outbreak. For extended fundamentals click here.


Price has been travelling within this descending channel October forming successive lower lows and lower highs. I pointed this out two weeks ago that price was approaching the channel's resistance however we've still yet to see a clear touch, rejection and bounce-off the resistance. Sellers in the market are likely to want to push price lower targeting the -27% Fib level, which is 0.52. However, looking at the recent moves, we can see loads of consolidation between 1.546 and 1.555 as there's mixed outlooks on these currencies. The EUR is highly dependant on the Coronavirus outbreak as countries are re-implementing second lockdowns, the risks for the EUR will be to the downside. Whereas the CAD's expectations for policy tightening will likely support CAD, while expectations for policy easing will likely pressure CAD. I would suggest waiting on more clear drivers before taking any positions on this pair. For extended fundamentals click here.


We've got this overall bullish flag pattern formed, with price now at the channel's support and just surpassing the 71% fib level. Buyers are most likely looking for a clear rejection and bounce off this level and completing this chart pattern, pushing price back to 1855 and 1900 level. The fact that market participants have moved out of safe-havens and into riskier assets, this factor along with the USD following unprecedented easing from the Fed in prior months, and now expectations for prolonged easing as the central bank has adopted AIT, has notably weakened the USD. It's hard to say what will happen next, but I think we could see price reversing from this zone and back into the 1900 level, but this is just a possibility, with constant vaccine news, anything could happen. For extended fundamentals click here.

A1 Edgefinder

Save time looking for setups with the EdgeFinder's watchlist! In a glance, see the EdgeFinder's current top buys and top sells.

Discount code: 'READER'

Access Now


Trading Plan Template
Struggling to build a successful trading plan? Download our template to get started today!
Trading Gold & USD Before NFP

Gold is up nearly half a percent today while USD down a third of one as of 10:18 am EST. As we wait for the upcoming and looming NFP numbers this Friday, we can assess the economic data we already have. EdgeFinder Analysis The stock market sighed in relief after the debt ceiling bill finally […]

Read More
Can The Dollar Break This Pivotal Level?

The dollar flew higher last week as a result of resilient economic news along with a higher PCE than expected. Now the DXY has reached a decision point in price action. This week's NFP will help determine the sentiment around the potential June rate hike. Here is what we are looking at: EdgeFinder Analysis USDCAD […]

Read More
Dovish Banks Could Crash These Currencies

Considerably dovish news from central banks in the US and New Zealand has caused a major stir in the markets. Governor Orr and Vice Chairman Powell both released some reassuring news for the economy in the long term. But what does this mean for USD and NZD? EdgeFinder Analysis GBPNZD is a pair that should […]

Read More
DISCLAIMER: All comments made by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC are for educational and informational purposes only. All comments should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of any securities or financial instrument of any kind. Please consult with your financial adviser before making an investment decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. All information on any of the platforms utilized by TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its employees, representatives, and affiliated individuals may have a position or effect transactions in the securities and financial instruments herein and or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. Trading of any type involves very high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. TraderNick’s Forex Group, LLC, its subsidiaries and all affiliated individuals assume no responsibility for your trading and investment result. Read our full disclaimer here
homesmartphonelaptop-phonemenu linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram