Pound Above Target Inflation Rate, What to Expect

6/28/2021

On June 24, the Bank of England sought to cap inflation at a target rate of 2% with sustaining their low interest rates of 0.10%. However, CPI inflation last week took us above the 2% mark to 2.10% in May causing the MPC to set their eyes on a 2 percent target for the mid-to-long term. MPC said that they will not change interest rates until they feel that maintaining their target inflation rate seems unfeasible. Some concerning news surrounding the employment side of England's economy mentions the increase in the number of vacancies in jobs as their jobless rate sits modestly around 4.7% in comparison to the US's 5.8%, France's 8%, and Euro Area's 8%.

Our outlook

The pound looks like they are still struggling getting jobs numbers back on track, but it appears that they are doing better than most of the Euro area and the US employment-wise. Inflation is over their current target rate, but it is also better in comparison to other European countries and America. As for their interest rate: it's very low at 0.10% but at least it's positive. I like the outlook in England more than of the European Union as of now.

Trade Setups

GBPUSD

Price can't seems to cross above its 50 SMA on the 4H timeframe which a falling trend line adds to resistance. Mild support lies around 1.38601, and the bottom of the consolidation zone is below around 1.38000.

GBPAUD

GA down 0.34% for the day at the time of writing this and falling onto support in the 4H timeframe. Additional support lies around its 200 SMA. If price bounces, it could test resistance around 1.83984 where the pair had previously retraced.

GBPCAD

Kind of an ugly chart on GCAD 4H, but it looks like price has retraced from resistance starting at 1.71441 and is stuck in between its 200 and 50 SMA on this timeframe for now. If price breaks underneath support at this level, it could find support at a double bottom around 1.70570s.