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August 8, 2021

Forex Market Recap (01-06 August 2021)

Bart Kurek

We have a heavy week of central bank highlights, including the RBA's insistence to continue tapering, expectations of a rate hike in New Zealand, and comments from the Fed on when we may see tapering in the US.

USD:

  • PMI ticks up to a record high at 63.4
  • ISM manufacturing at 59.5, growth is slowing
  • Fed’s Waller says to ‘Go early and go fast’ on tapering
  • Private companies added 330,000 jobs in July, according to ADP, far short of the 653,000 estimate
  • Fed Vice Chair Clarida anticipates rate hikes starting in 2023, sees upside risks to inflation
  • Fed’s Daly sees bond program taper later this year or early 2022
  • Payrolls increase 943,000 in July as the unemployment rate reaches 5.4%

EUR:

  • Eurozone Manufacturing growth remained strong in July despite a slight loss of momentum
  • Industrial producer prices up by 1.4% m/m
  • Spanish unemployment decreased by -5.47% in July
  • Eurozone PMI grows at the fastest rate since June 2006
  • Growth of eurozone productivity hits ten-month high amid stronger expansion in the service sector
  • In Q2 2021, French payroll employment increased by 1.2% and returned to its end of 2019 level

GBP:

  • Covid cases down by 33% over the past week
  • Service PMI sector recovery slows again in July, while inflationary pressures hit a new record high
  • BoE keeps policy unchanged, warns of ‘more pronounced’ period of inflation
  • BoE to keep a very close eye on inflation’s impact on wages

CAD:

  • Merchandise trade balance returned to a surplus position, reaching $3.2B in June
  • Jobs recovery continues in July amid reopenings
  • PMI for July falls to 56.4 vs. 71.9 previous

JPY:

  • Manufacturing PMI upgraded from 52.2 to 53.0
  • Tokyo shows an inflation pulse for the first time in a year
  • Business activity falls at a quicker pace in July
  • Japan warns of unprecedented covid spread as cases hit record in Olympic host city
  • Tokyo logs record covid cases over 5,000 amid medical collapse fears

AUD:

  • Inflation gauge ticked higher from 0.4% to 0.5%
  • Manufacturing sector growth slows amid virus disruption and supply constraints
  • AU consumer confidence rebounds 1.1% after lockdowns lift
  • RBA will trim bond-buying even as Delta variant slams economy
  • Retail sales fell by 1.8% as expected in June
  • Service sector sinks into contraction amid virus wave

NZD:

  • Quarterly employment change up 1.0% vs. 0.7% forecast in Q2
  • Unemployment rate down from 4.6% to 4.0% vs. 4.4% forecast
  • ANZ, Westpac, KiwiBank, ASB, BNZ project an RBNZ rate hike later this month

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