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August 15, 2021

Forex Market Recap (08-13 August 2021)

Bart Kurek

Volatility was relatively low and choppy in the FX space among the major currency pairs, but we did see the CHF make a directional move early on in the week. The winners this week was a draw between the CAD and NZD, benefitting from the rebound in oil prices on Tuesday and the latter finding buyers ahead of the likely rate hike from the RBNZ next week.

USD:

  • The US risks fiscal cliff in Autumn amid partisanship on debt
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen urged Congress to raise the national debt limit through bipartisan action
  • Productivity growth slows in Q2
  • US Senate passes massive bipartisan infrastructure package
  • July consumer prices jump 5.4%, but core inflation rises less than expected
  • Fed’s Barkin says they're closing in on taper, but could still take a few months
  • Fed’s Kaplan says Fed should start tapering in October
  • Fed’s George says it’s time to "dial back the settings" on monetary policy
  • Producer prices at more than decade high, unemployment claims fall

EUR:

  • ECB Weidmann says they must tighten policy if needed to counter inflation
  • Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index slumped from 61.2 to 42.7
  • German ZEW economic sentiment index down from 63.3 to 40.4
  • German consumer prices rose strongly in July in line with forecasts
  • In June 2021, both Italian exports and imports grew (+25.4% and +32.6% respectively) y/y
  • In June 2021, Industrial production down by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU m/m
  • In July 2021, the prices of frequently purchased French goods sold in hyper and supermarkets fell by 0.1% y/y

GBP:

  • Fresh Covid-19 data boosts hopes that the Delta variant can be kept under control
  • UK economy expanded 4.8% as expected in Q2
  • Manufacturing production up 0.2%, industrial production slumped 0.7%
  • Diners and doctors help the UK economy to extend recovery

CAD:

  • Canada to create international vaccine passport in months
  • PMTrudeau planning a snap election to seek approval for the government's costly plans to combat Covid-19

JPY:

  • Economy Watchers Survey for July: 48.4 vs. 47.6 previous
  • Money Stock for July 2021: +5.2% y/y
  • Corporate Goods Price Index for July: +1.1% m/m, +5.6% y/y
  • Wholesale inflation hits 13-year high as import costs rise

AUD:

  • Australia expands lockdown over concern virus has spread from Sydney
  • NAB business confidence index slumped from +11 to -8
  • Melbourne extends lockdown: "no jab, no job" in Sydney
  • MI inflation expectations slip from 3.7% to 3.3%
  • Canberra to go into lockdown mode

NZD:

  • Inflation q/q expectations up from 2.05% to 2.27%
  • House prices hit a new record +25.2%

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