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September 19, 2021

Forex Market Recap (12-17 September 2021)

Bart Kurek

This week’s risk sentiment vibes looks to be one of risk-off, likely influenced by the never-ending pandemic uncertainty, as well as bearish economic updates & news from China. The USD and JPY out performed the rest of the majors, typical results in a risk-off environment. The USD also benefitted greatly from the positive US retail sales data update, launching it higher on Thursday.

USD:

  • August budget deficit falls as revenues recover
  • House Democrats propose new tax hikes to pay for their $3.5T bill
  • Inflation coming off the boil as prices increase slowly in August
  • Jobless claims: Another 332,000 individuals filed new claims last week
  • Online purchases boost retail sales; labour market recovering
  • Philly Fed factory index falls in July to lowest since December
  • Long-end Treasury yields post the biggest drop in a month as traders recalibrate expectations for Fed’s next hiking cycle

EUR:

  • The number of employed Italians increased by 338K (+1.5%) q/q in Q3
  • German Wholesale prices in August 2021: +12.3% vs August 2020
  • French central bank raises growth outlook as economy booms
  • Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.3%; EU rate at 2.2%
  • Industrial production up by 1.5% in the euro area & by 1.4% in the EU
  • Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the euro area; Up to 3.2% in the EU
  • Production in construction up by 0.1% in the euro area and down by 0.1% in the EU

GBP:

  • Employee numbers surge above pre-pandemic levels
  • Britain delays Brexit border checks as food industry warns of permanent shortages
  • Headline CPI jumped from 2.0% to 3.0% vs. 2.9% forecast
  • House prices fall as property market cools
  • Retail sales slumped 0.9% in August vs. projected 0.5% rebound
  • Consumer inflation expectations up from 2.4% to 2.7%

CAD:

  • Trudeau slammed over rising inflation as election race tightens
  • Annual CPI rises 4.1% in August, highest level since 2003
  • Housing starts trended lower in August
  • Trudeau holds a slight election edge, with help from his opponents

JPY:

  • Wholesale inflation on the rise on higher yen-based imports
  • BSI manufacturing index rebounded from -1.4 to +7.0
  • BOJ’s Kuroda: Japan inflation to reach 2% goal, but not before 2023
  • Japan exports slow as supply chain hiccups hit factories

AUD:

  • House prices post record quarterly rise
  • RBA Lowe says Australia won’t see any interest rate hikes for years thanks to the Delta outbreak
  • Westpac consumer sentiment rebounded 2.0% in Sept
  • Inflation and wage expectations higher in September
  • Employment slides in August as lockdowns slash workers’ hours

NZD:

  • Food prices rise for the fifth consecutive month as tomato growers ‘try to survive’
  • Economy surges in Q2, supporting rate hike call
  • Manufacturing index down from 62.2 to 40.1 in August

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