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July 30, 2021

The Aussie Buck Is Now Bearish- Further Downside Ahead

Frank Cabibi

7/30/2021

The Australian military was sent to enforce a lockdown in Sydney where residents are forced to stay inside for an extended period of time as cases spike. This quarantine period has been scrutinized because of their failure to contain the number of cases while people are inside.

Our outlook:

The fact Australia has to shut down again is a good thing for public health but not for the economy and the buck. Although the US dollar looks weaker after the Fed news on Wednesday where they said interest rates will stay low for a long time and tapering will not happen any time soon, Australia's economy is taking a step backwards. Against most major currencies, the buck now looks much weaker.

Trade Setups

AUDNZD

AUDNZD fell under the lows on the 1D chart and now could be heading towards further lows around 1.04299. If price does bounce at this level, we could expect a lower high to form on the daily chart.

AUDJPY

AJ retraced off its 200 DMA paired with a resistance level which looks like a tough level to break above. The pair tried to test it a second time but ended up coming back down again. If the pair makes a lower low on the 1D, it could signal more of a bearish move next week.

AUDCAD

AC broke under support on the 1H and 4H timeframes and tried to test that level before pulling back again. Price is currently on long term support from November of 2020, so a break under this level would probably mean a drop to the .90637 level.

EURAUD

This pair looks increasingly bullish on the 4H as price hits higher lows and highs while forming a stairstep upward. Support around 1.61002 should price dip before attempting a higher high. The pair's recent break above its long term channel is also a bullish sign for the pair.

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