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The Market Recovery Depends On This One Factor

10/7/2021

Big news regarding the stock market and USD tomorrow will be the main driver for SPX500's momentum ending the week and going into the next one. NFP and unemployment rate are expected to have improved from last month slightly. But the biggest factor that could turn the market in either direction is this issue with the debt ceiling.

Our outlook

Stock market investors might already be pricing in the expectation of a beat in expectations as the SPX500 is already above the falling trend line and up nearly 1% today. Unemployment claims also beat expectations today which is another good sign for stocks. I think the market has the potential to test up in the $4420s today and possibly range up there until the NFP news tomorrow. The debt ceiling issue that can make the US default seems to be less of an issue now as debates continue. This issue is extremely important and is the main cause of these massive market swings that have been happening recently. Social security and tax refunds are some of the things that can be impacted by a default because these benefits could get delayed indefinitely.

Trade Setups

SPX500

Here is SPX500 on the 4H chart breaking above the falling trend line and nearing resistance around $4420. A close above this falling trend line will give investors some relief that price might be more stable and the downtrend won't continue. However, this could all change tomorrow, although today's jobless claims beat could indicate a lower unemployment rate.

NAS100

The Nasdaq looks strong today as well as tech stocks recover hard this morning. This index's falling trend line is quite a ways away from price right now, but it could have enough momentum to reach it in the next few trading days. Price just broke above resistance in the $14,900s but needs to close above to help ensure continued upside.

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