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September 16, 2020

This Week's Trade Setups on USD Pairs and Indices

Frank Cabibi
GBP/USDBearish
XAU/USDBullish
SPX500Bearish

GBP/USD

GU broke a long term upward trend line on the daily and 4H charts which dipped price below key support. With poor Brexit news and an uncertain US economy, the pair is stuck near a decision point. The pair has been climbing for months after the crash in March, but now faces heavy resistance. Bad retail sales reports on USD is probably what's causing this rally up to resistance, but my overall sentiment remains bearish, and a possible future lower low will come out of this on the 4H chart.

Indices will have a volatile day as the Fed chairman is set to speak at 2:30 EST with FOMC economic projections at 2:00. The SPX still hovers below resistance on the 4H chart after its steep decline starting from 2 weeks ago. Today will provide further insight on the market's direction from now up until the election. The 200 SMA on the 4H chart suggests that price is very uncertain on where to go. It seems to be taking turns stabilizing just under or over the moving average as investors wait for the FOMC projections. I remain bearish for the week unless price breaks over that resistance level around 3430s.

After breaking out of former wedge, gold makes higher lows on the 4H chart and hovers around the 200 SMA. In the long run, gold outperforms the benchmarks, but still dips a little with each market retracement in the short run. Big money and analysts think that this metal has the potential to climb as US economy and USD decline. I remain bullish on this metal and believe that a test at 1990s would be likely in the next few weeks. However, poor US economic data could hinder the stock market which could adversely affect gold. The dips are not as momentous and recoveries outperform indices.


Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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