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August 9, 2022

Trade These Pairs Before CPI

Frank Cabibi

Consumer Price Index numbers will come out tomorrow with the anticipation of a slowdown in inflation. This index takes all goods and services purchased by consumers and measures their prices against the previous month. Investors will get an idea of whether or not the Fed is staying the course, too aggressive or too loose. Here's why you should trade these pairs before tomorrow.

AUD/USD

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The RBA fears slowing the economy should they continue to raise their rates. Unlike the US, Australia is not showing positive growth in jobs or output which is hinting towards their central bank taking a less hawkish approach and lessening the rate hikes. Investors are looking towards weakness in the buck and are looking for further downside on this pair.

AU just came back up to test a falling trend line on the 4H which it couldn't break above. The pair is also in a fib resistance zone while forming lower highs. Price may start to move downward towards the 0.69125 level where there are a couple bottoms.

GBP/USD

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After a handful events in the UK, the value of the pound is very much up in the air. Uncertainty clouds investors' grim outlook on the economy and currency. British GDP numbers are expected to come out lower and even negative, which compared to last month, was 0.50%. This will also give us an indication of whether or not the BoE will keep hiking as much as they have, or if they'll take their foot off the pedal for a while.

Should lower GDP numbers come in for GBP, we can expect the pair to turn lower. On the 1D timeframe, price is showing another day of rejection from the highs of the day. Price may continue lower to test the falling trend line. We can see a move as low as the bottom at 1.17631.

USD/JPY

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UJ has been a volatile and unpredictable pair for the most part this year. Long term, we might be able to expect a stronger USD over the yen although both currencies are considered risk-off. Latest NFP numbers suggest that the Fed can keep hiking rates. And tomorrow's CPI might further indicate that argument's validity.

The pair has not really moved this week but has stayed just above a previous resistance level around 134.597. A move down could lead price to hit the rising trend line on the 1D timeframe, while an upward surge could take the pair all the way to the highs of 138.700s.

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