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July 10, 2020

Trump v. Biden, What Wall Street Thinks

Frank Cabibi

Lots of mixed feelings are in the stock market as investors mull over the outcomes of the presidential race and affects that await the election. When it comes to economics, most investors are concerned about Biden's policies as they know Trump's basis of "being a good president" is to take a look at the stock market ever since he became president. In this article, I'm going to briefly go over both side's policies and how they could affect the market.

Biden

https://media2.giphy.com/media/f9eYHQ8RZ4zfc4unXx/giphy.gif

Politicians consider Joe Biden to be a moderate candidate, leaning towards the increase of taxes to pursue government projects. According to New York Post, Biden wants a lot more taxes to be implemented for the government to spend more money on American products and "support American jobs". He has several more policies regarding social injustice, capital punishment, etc., but we are focusing more on their economic plans as it takes precedent in the stock market.

What investors don't like about big tax increases is that it limits consumer spending. When more people begin to save, that means less money moves in the market. Now, taxes aren't a bad thing, but big money is not a fan. According to MarketWatch, Biden could take the tax cuts for the top 1% and use that money for his "Buy American" economic plan.
Here's what MarketWatch thinks what could happen if Biden is elected:

marketwatch.com/story/the-cost-of-bidens-economic-plan-to-the-stock-market-is-more-than-you-might-think-2020-07-10

Trump

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbgr.com%2F2017%2F02%2F08%2Ftrump-gifs-is-now-illegal%2F&psig=AOvVaw3CeLCj06cO9tjPjZ3MfhrG&ust=1594496815517000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCKDV0Na5w-oCFQAAAAAdAAAAABB7

Trump has been known for either being extremely loved or hated on both sides, but what he has done for the American economy has mainly received applause.

Donald Trump assigned tax cuts to wealthier individuals which has allowed them to put more money back in the stock market. The top 1% are usually people who own corporations and have lots of money to invest or even give to charity. What Wall Street likes about Trump is his tenacity to turn the economy into the best it can be. When you see his slogan, "Make America Great Again", it only seems like he means that for the economy. I don't agree with this policy, but when Trump attempted to get the market moving again after the crash in March/April, the Fed printed trillions for their own balance sheet where they purchased shares of stock. Wall Street loved hearing that as the market boomed back up to previous levels and the Nasdaq created a new high. I do think he did some good in signing a bill to help aid the unemployed, but printing so much money and lowering interest rates to essentially nothing was not a good move in my opinion.

Conclusion

The market clearly doesn't reflect the current economy in the US and times like this would be hard on any president. If Biden wins, he will inherit a poor economy and will have to be relied on to fix it. And the same goes for Trump, but it's all a matter on how one goes about repairing the economy according to investors. I tried to make this unbiased as possible, although I did give my opinion on the Fed's stimulus plan, but I've been bringing that up for so long now. Anyways, I expect to see a lot of volatility in the market regardless of who wins or loses. Just know that when the US markets are shaky, other countries may follow, and we could see some big moves on various currency pairs come election time.

Featured Photo: https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/04/08/USAT/61d72c12-07a1-4898-9b3a-36c24c8d7a8b-trump_biden.jpg?crop=2399,1349,x0,y0&width=2399&height=1349&format=pjpg&auto=webp


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Disclaimer:

Please note that this email is my personal opinion only. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and any information shared or discussed is not to be construed as investment advice. Trading and investing involves a degree of risk, and is not suitable to all investors. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any sort of investment decisions.

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